Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 19, 2024

Media

Podcasts

Economics

Politics

What is the current sentiment toward the economy?

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on the U.S. Economy

Snapshots

Israel

Lebanon

Syria

Lebanese soldiers stand guard as an ambulance rushes wounded people to a hospital in Beirut on Sept. 17, 2024, after explosions hit locations in several Hezbollah strongholds around Lebanon amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah fighters.

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

A widespread pager attack against Hezbollah raises tensions between Israel and Lebanon as their border conflict expands.

All Eyes Turn to Israel Following Hezbollah Pager Explosions Across Lebanon and Syria

Myanmar

Members of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army ethnic armed organization train March 8, 2023, in Myanmar's northern Shan state. The resistance's push into the country's interior will further destabilize the business environment and threaten the military government's long-term survival, but the military's ability to hold out in well-defended positions means its collapse remains unlikely for the foreseeable future. 

In Myanmar, the resistance's push into the country's interior will further destabilize the business environment and threaten the military government's long-term survival, but the military's ability to hold out in well-defended positions means its collapse remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Myanmar Rebels Put the Junta on the Defensive in Its Heartland

Saudi Arabia

Has Saudi Arabia accomplished its Vision 2030 goals?

Essential Geopolitics: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030

Sri Lanka

In Sri Lanka's presidential elections, differing views on the country's agreement with the International Monetary Fund and austerity measures, social issues involving Tamils and Muslims, and balancing relations with India and China heighten the risk of social unrest, delays in financial support, and uncertainty in economic planning and reforms, while the new president's insufficient support in Parliament may delay policy. 

Sri Lankan Presidential Candidates Face an Electorate Upset by the Economy

Global Elections

Ukraine

Russia

A man looks at the road blocked by striped tape on December 13, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine, following two nights of ballistic missile attacks on the city.

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine faces its most challenging post-invasion winter yet due to intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure that may drive more Ukrainians to flee and worsen the country's manpower shortage.

Ukraine Faces Harshest Winter Yet Amid Intensified Russian Attacks on Energy Infrastructure

Kenya

Mexico

Palestinian Territories

China

A special session of the U.N. General Assembly is held on the Palestinian bid for full membership to the United Nations at the U.N. headquarters in New York City on May 10, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Mexico Ratifies a Controversial Judicial Reform, the U.N. Votes on a Palestinian Resolution

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Iran

Europe

A digital illustration shows a binary code overlaying the Iranian flag.

Cyber

In the second part of this series, we explore Iran's attempts to steal information, silence critics, and disrupt Western critical infrastructure and organizations via damaging cyberattacks and espionage campaigns.

Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 2

U.S.-Iran Relations

In the first of this two-part series, we explore Iran's attempts to sway the upcoming U.S. presidential election and heighten anti-Israel sentiments via online influence campaigns and cyberattacks.

Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 1

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine on June 15, 2024, in Lucerne, Switzerland. 

If elected U.S. president, Harris would likely initially maintain Biden's approach to Ukraine, but new White House officials, political pressure and events on the battlefield could change her administration's policies and strategy.

How Could a Harris Presidency Impact the War in Ukraine?

Latest

Remains of exploded pagers on Sept. 18 in southern Beirut. Israel's attacks on Hezbollah's communications likely signal a steady shift toward a more intense Lebanon campaign,

Israel's attacks on Hezbollah's communications likely signal a steady shift toward a more intense Lebanon campaign. 

Israel's Electronics Sabotage Signals a More Intense Military Campaign in Lebanon

Brazil

Chinese President Xi Jinping (third from left) and Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (third from right) hold a meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on June 7, 2024. 

Despite China's declining investment volumes in Brazil, strengthening cooperation remains of interest to both countries, which will likely see Brasilia join the BRI -- potentially as soon as November.

The Implications of Brazil Joining China's Belt and Road Initiative

Argentina

Argentine President Javier Milei gestures before presenting the 2025 budget proposal to Congress in Buenos Aires on Sept. 15, 2024. 

Since taking office last year, President Milei has made solid progress toward lowering inflation and debt levels. But without wider-ranging institutional reforms, Argentina will remain susceptible to recurrent economic instability and financial crises.

Milei Puts Argentina's Economy on Better Footing. Can It Last?

Japan

The candidates for Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) leadership election sit on stage during a debate in Tokyo on Sept. 14, 2024.

Whoever the ruling LDP picks as its new leader will remain focused on improving Japan's military ties, but if he or she is replaced quickly, the turnover could harm Tokyo's preparedness for regional conflicts.

Previewing Japan's LDP Leadership Election

Ghana

A man holds cedis, the Ghanan currency, notes in Accra, Ghana, on Dec. 1, 2022.

Social Issues

Ghana's adherence to its IMF program will likely see it enjoy rebounding economic growth in 2025, even if the country's upcoming elections and reliance on commodity exports pose short- and long-term risks.

Despite Downside Risks, Ghana Is Poised for a Progressive Economic Recovery

Sub-Saharan Africa

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and leaders from African nations assemble for a group photo at the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, on Sept. 5, 2024.

In a recent speech, Chinese President Xi laid out a $51 billion funding pledge for Africa, but fiscal and security constraints make a return to the heavy Chinese engagement of the mid-2010s highly unlikely.

China Commits to Long-Term Africa Ties, Even if Belt and Road Remains Muted

Netherlands

The United States and the West are likely to continue tightening export controls on China's semiconductor and other high-tech industries to close loopholes exploited by Chinese companies.

Tightened Western Tech Export Controls on China Signal More to Come

U.S.-China Relations

France

Incoming Prime Minister Michel Barnier (R) delivers a speech next to outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Sept. 5 in Paris. Barnier will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly.

France's new prime minister will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly. While the government will still have options to reduce the country's fiscal deficit and avoid a financial crisis, these would come at the cost of severe social unrest and political volatility.

France's New Prime Minister Will Struggle to Pass Laws and Avoid Financial Woes

Romania

The EU flag is projected on the facade of Romania's parliament building in Bucharest on the eve of Europe Day on May 8, 2024. 

Romania's financial risks are manageable in the short-to-medium term, but failure to reduce its fiscal and current account deficits could expose the country to external shocks.

The Financial Risks of Romania's Twin Deficits

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives for a working session on the second day of the G-7 summit in Schloss Elmau, Germany, on June 27, 2022. 

The trip is likely aimed at addressing backlash from the prime minister's recent visit to Russia, as India tries to mitigate Western criticism and reinforce its neutrality in the Ukraine conflict.

Modi's Upcoming Visit to Ukraine Reflects India's Balancing Act

Thailand

Former Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin addresses the media after the Thai Constitutional Court removed him from office Aug. 14 in Bangkok.

The removal of the Thai prime minister represents the military establishment's latest attempt to impose its influence on the government, which in the coming months and years will continue to constrain Thailand's economic growth while stoking social unrest.

The Thai Military Establishment Replaces Another Prime Minister

Columns

On Geopolitics

Jordan

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

Germany

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

United Kingdom

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

The Geopolitics of Water

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

The United States and India will hold their first dialogue on the Indian Ocean, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell informed Congress on Sept. 18, Nikkei Asia reported on Sept. 19.

India: U.S. and India To Hold First Dialogue on Indian Ocean

Sri Lanka's government announced that it reached an agreement in principle on debt restructuring terms with the Ad Hoc Group of Bondholders, the Local Consortium of Sri Lanka and the China Development Bank, NewsFirst reported on Sept. 19. 

Sri Lanka: Government Reached Agreement in Principle With Bondholders

Mali

The Sept. 17 attack by militants of al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, on Mali's capital Bamako caused the death of at least 77 people and wounded over 255 others, France 24 reported on Sept. 19, quoting security sources. 

Mali: Over 70 Killed, 250 Wounded in Al Qaeda Affiliate Attack on Bamako

Mozambique

Presidential candidates for Mozambique's ruling Frelimo party and opposition Renamo party have called for a renegotiation of existing liquified natural gas contracts with multinational energy companies, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 19.

Mozambique: General Election Campaign Prompts Calls To Renegotiate LNG Contracts

Tunisia

A Tunisian court sentenced presidential candidate and leader of the liberal Azimoun Party Ayachi Zammel to 20 months in prison after security forces arrested him two weeks ago on charges of falsifying voter signatures on his candidacy paperwork, Reuters reported on Sept. 18.

Tunisia: Opposition Presidential Candidate Sentenced to 20 Months in Prison

Italy

Science & Technology

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni criticized the European Green Deal's "ideological approach" and pledged to push to correct its most "self-destructive" policies, like a ban on the sale of new combustion engine vehicles in the European Union after 2035, according to a transcript of her speech the Italian government published on Sept. 18. 

Italy, EU: Italy's Meloni Pledges To Push for EU 2035 Combustion Engine Vehicle Ban Reversal

Israel proposed a new outline for the end of the war in Gaza that would see all hostages released at once, an end to the fighting in Gaza, the exile of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and his associates, the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, the demilitarization of the strip, and a new government for Gaza, The Times of Israel reported on Sept 19.

Israel, Gaza: Israel Proposes New Gaza Cease-Fire Outline, but Constraints Remain

Ecuador

cuador has started a series of scheduled overnight blackouts to save electricity and carry out maintenance work amid the most severe drought in 60 years, DW reported on Sept. 19. 

Ecuador: Power Rationing to Pose Operational and Security Challenges 

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Mexico's Federal Judicial Council (CJF) voted to resume work activities starting on Sept. 23, following nearly a month of strikes and protests to oppose a government-backed judicial reform, El Universal reported Sept. 18. 

Mexico: End of Judicial Workers' Strike Indicates Declining Unrest Risks

Colombia

An attack against an army base in Colombia's eastern Arauca department, which the military attributed to the National Liberation Army, or ELN, killed two soldiers and injured at least 25 more, Semana reported Sept. 17.

Colombia: ELN Attack on Army Base Threatens To Obstruct Future Peace Talks

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

Israel's Electronics Sabotage Signals a More Intense Military Campaign in Lebanon

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

India: U.S. and India To Hold First Dialogue on Indian Ocean

Sri Lanka: Government Reached Agreement in Principle With Bondholders

Mali: Over 70 Killed, 250 Wounded in Al Qaeda Affiliate Attack on Bamako

Mozambique: General Election Campaign Prompts Calls To Renegotiate LNG Contracts

Tunisia: Opposition Presidential Candidate Sentenced to 20 Months in Prison

Italy, EU: Italy's Meloni Pledges To Push for EU 2035 Combustion Engine Vehicle Ban Reversal

Israel, Gaza: Israel Proposes New Gaza Cease-Fire Outline, but Constraints Remain

Ecuador: Power Rationing to Pose Operational and Security Challenges

Mexico: End of Judicial Workers' Strike Indicates Declining Unrest Risks

Colombia: ELN Attack on Army Base Threatens To Obstruct Future Peace Talks

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