Ukraine's intensifying drone campaign against Russia's energy infrastructure is unlikely to trigger a systemic crisis in the oil and gas sector or alter Moscow's calculus on the war, but it will act as a financial drain on Russian oil companies, even as global oil deficits buoy the Kremlin's revenues. On May 17, Ukrainian drones hit Gazprom Neft's 257,000 barrel per day Moscow Kapotnya oil refinery and Transneft's Solnechnogorsk oil pumping station, in what appears to be the largest drone attack on the Russian capital and the surrounding region since March 2025. This follows an almost daily Ukrainian drone campaign since the start of the war in Iran that has targeted some of Russia's most important energy infrastructure, including export hubs, pipelines, storage facilities and refineries. The attacks reportedly forced several facilities to halt or curtail operations and contributed to the loss of nearly 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of...
