China will likely continue to wield export restrictions on rare earth elements and related magnets in response to future U.S. restrictions, sustaining a high risk of supply chain disruptions, particularly for automakers.

The White House's deployment of National Guard troops to the Los Angeles protests reflects an increasingly aggressive mass deportation effort, and intense pushback against it, that set the stage for more unrest, legal standoffs and economic uncertainty.

The attacks appear designed to keep Hezbollah weak, while pressuring the Lebanese government to take quicker and more aggressive steps toward the group's disarmament.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.