Snapshots

United States

Venezuela

A U.S. military MQ-9 Reaper drone sits on a tarmac at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico, on Dec. 27, 2025.

Military & Security

The Trump administration will likely soon launch more strikes inside Venezuela following the reported CIA drone attack on a suspected drug port, though a U.S. ground invasion remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Trump Escalates Pressure on Venezuela With First Land Strike

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Israel

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Europe

Eurasia

Ukraine

Russia

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

United Kingdom

The Sevington Inland Border Facility on April 29, 2024, in southeast England. Rejoining the EU customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Economics

Rejoining the bloc's customs framework would require London to accept a common external tariff and strict regulatory alignment, meaning a successful negotiation remains unlikely in the short to medium term.

Despite Growing Calls, U.K. Unlikely To Rejoin EU Customs Union

The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group participates in joint operations with the U.S. Air Force on Nov. 13, 2025.

Increased military mobilizations, failed negotiations with Maduro and persistent aggressive rhetoric suggest the Trump administration will likely soon escalate its Caribbean military campaign to targeted strikes in Venezuelan territory.

The U.S. Remains Poised To Attack Venezuelan Territory

Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

While the partnership provides tactical benefits, structural limitations on Houthi resources and al Shabaab's financial independence suggest the relationship will remain opportunistic.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

Iran

Iraq

Iraqi riot police walk past a screen displaying a portrait of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during celebrations by his supporters following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The Nov. 11 elections produced another fragmented legislature where Iranian-backed parties still have significant influence, portending contentious government formation talks that could impede policymaking and trigger armed clashes.

Iraq Braces for Another Turbulent Government Formation Process

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Workers clean the rubble from the site of a Nov. 23 Israeli airstrike targeting a residential building in the southern Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut. Israel will likely opportunistically escalate airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas to further weaken the militant groups and push them toward disarmament without ending shaky ceasefires.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Miscalculation or an opportunity for Israel to significantly set back Hezbollah would, however, increase the likelihood of a return to major fighting. 

Despite More Intense Israeli Strikes, Hezbollah and Hamas Ceasefires Will Likely Hold

Ukrainian artillerymen operate a U.S.-made M-114 howitzer near Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Oct. 16, 2025.

Trump has given Ukraine until Nov. 27 to accept a plan that would freeze the war on terms favorable to Moscow, or face U.S. aid cuts. But Kyiv is unlikely to accede, instead relying on European support to continue fighting.

Ukraine Likely To Reject Trump's Peace Plan Ultimatum, Prolonging the War

Honduras

View of a Honduran national flag at La Laguna neighborhood, in the north of Tegucigalpa, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

Global Elections

Honduras' next government will face legislative gridlock, political instability and unrest, regardless of the victor.

The Challenges Facing Honduras' Upcoming General Election

Algeria

Morocco

A man rides past a roundabout adorned with Moroccan national flags in Laayoune, the main city of Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara, on Nov. 7, 2025.

Although Morocco's sovereignty plan is gaining momentum, the unresolved conflict will continue to complicate the region's development and fuel sporadic clashes.

U.N. Security Council Resolution Bolsters Morocco's Claims to Disputed Western Sahara

China

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

Global Trade

U.S.-China Relations

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

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