Snapshots

Romania

People wave Romanian flags and hold portraits of far-right presidential candidate Calin Georgescu during a protest in front of Romania's Constitutional Court in Bucharest on Jan. 10, 2025. 

Economics

Politics

The crisis is raising the risk of a far-right president taking office that would disrupt foreign policy and, less likely, a far-right prime minister that would strain EU relations and jeopardize crucial funds from the bloc.

Romania's Deepening Political Crisis Risks Empowering the Far-Right

France

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (center) addresses the National Assembly in Paris, France, on Feb. 5, 2025, ahead of a vote on a no-confidence motion against him. 

The approval of a budget for 2025 averts an immediate political crisis and offers short-term relief to markets, yet France's politics are still unstable and its medium-term fiscal policy direction remains uncertain.

France Passes Its 2025 Budget, but Political and Economic Challenges Persist

United States

China

Stacked shipping containers are seen at Yantian Port in Shenzhen, China, on Dec. 1, 2024. 

U.S.-China Relations

While a resolution on stemming flows of Chinese fentanyl to the U.S. market is possible, a comprehensive trade deal is still unlikely due to the wide scope of U.S. grievances and China's reluctance to concede on sensitive issues.

New U.S. Tariffs on China May Be Negotiable, but a Broader Trade Deal Remains Unlikely

Europe

The U.S. and EU flags are seen next to each other.

If Trump makes good on his threat, the EU will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods while simultaneously pursuing talks with the White House to avoid a lengthy and economically costly trade war.

Gauging the EU's Response to Potential U.S. Tariffs

United Kingdom

The Bank of England is seen in London, the United Kingdom, on Sept. 19, 2024.

If market pressures persist, the Labour government may have to impose spending cuts or tax hikes that would derail its economic initiatives and make it all the more unpopular.

Market Instability Tests the U.K. Government's Fiscal Strategy

Canada

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends a news conference on March 7, 2019 in Ottawa, Canada. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation aims to revitalize the Liberal Party but is unlikely to prevent a Conservative electoral victory amid his declining popularity and party turmoil.

Canada's Trudeau Bows Out, Paving Way for Early Election

Russia

Moldova

This picture taken on Sept. 2, 2014, shows equipment from the border release and compressor station of the gas pipeline from Ukraine in Veke Kapusany, eastern Slovakia. 

Energy

Russia is hoping to weaken Moldova's pro-European government by inducing a destabilizing energy crisis in the winter. But if this plan fails, it could further undermine Russian influence in the country.

To Keep Its Hold on Moldova, Russia Gambles on a Gas Cut-Off

Brazil

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Increased EU purchases of U.S. fossil fuels may ease trade tensions and facilitate talks with the incoming Trump administration, but they are unlikely to alone defuse the risk of tariffs and other trade disputes in the years ahead.

Can the EU Avoid Trump's Tariffs by Importing More U.S. Oil and Gas?

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

Iran

Lebanon

Syria

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Military & Security

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

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