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Military & Security

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The second quarter will test global resilience as lingering conflicts and energy shocks converge to heighten economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Cuba

United States

Iran

Israel

China

Russia

People on March 15 in Tehran, Iran, clean up rubble from a missile attack. The Iran war will almost certainly continue through the next week amid Israeli threats to escalate and expand strikes due to Iranian attacks targeting Israeli civilians and the U.S. deployment of additional military assets to the region.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, a European Parliament Delegation Visits China

U.S.-Iran Relations

Media

Podcasts

How will the trajectory of China-U.S. trade conversations change in light of conflict in the Middle East?

The Decision Advantage: The Impact of the Iran War on the Asia-Pacific Region

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 26, 2026

Kuwait

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

India

A medicine distributor stores Mounjaro (tirzepatide) self-injecting GLP-1 prefilled pens and vials in a fridge at his office in Thane, India, on March 20, 2026. 

India's pharmaceutical and medical technology sectors are set to grow significantly over the next several years amid manufacturing incentives, regulatory reforms and trade deals.

The Growth Outlook for India's Pharmaceutical Sector Remains Strong, Despite Global Uncertainties

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Geopolitics of Demographics

While far from deterministic, demographics plays a key role in influencing a country's domestic and international politics, as well as its economic and financial development.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: Politics and Economics

Snapshots

Italy

Opposition supporters celebrate the defeat of a referendum on justice reform March 23 in Rome. The defeat exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

The defeat of a highly politicized judicial reform referendum exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

What a Failed Italian Referendum Means for the Meloni Government

Columns

On Geopolitics

Lebanon

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

Denmark

France

Ukraine

The European Parliament building in 2019 in Strasbourg, France. Parliament is set to hold a plenary vote March 26 on implementing the 2025 EU‑U.S. trade framework agreement.

The Weekly Rundown: A Vote on the EU‑U.S. Trade Framework, the Iran Conflict Continues

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting in Moscow on the global oil and gas market situation on March 9, 2026.

The current surge in demand for Russian oil will likely be short-lived, but weaker sanctions enforcement and higher energy prices could nonetheless buoy Moscow's capacity to fund its war in Ukraine.

In Twist of Fate, Russia Gets a Boost From Iran-Related Oil Shocks

Bahrain

People walk along the corniche area on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, in Abu Dhabi on March 20, 2026.

Global Trade

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will compel Gulf Cooperation Council states to invest in alternative trade routes and more resilient physical infrastructure.

Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot

Latest

South Africa

A general view of power lines near the Lethabo power station between Vereeniging and Sasolburg, South Africa, on April 17, 2024.

Although South Africa's power sector reforms remain years from completion, their gradual advancement will still attract investment in energy projects that support the country's long-term energy security and decarbonization goals.

The Outlook for South Africa's Power Sector Reforms and Energy Security

Cars drive past a gas station in Ponte Leccia on the French Mediterranean island of Corsica on March 26, 2026. 

To address Iran-related energy disruptions, the European Union will likely opt for a patchwork of national relief measures, rather than a more comprehensive market intervention.

How the EU Is Responding to Its Latest Energy Crisis

Qatar

The Burj Khalifa skyscraper (L) and the Burj al-Arab hotel (R) on March 11 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. With further Iranian provocation, several Gulf Cooperation Council states would be willing to join the war against Iran, but doing so would likely deepen Iran's targeting of their critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and potentially pull the GCC into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Joining in could deepen Iran's targeting of GCC critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and pull the bloc into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Will the Gulf States Join the Iran War, and What Would Happen if They Did?

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Iraq

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

Australia

European Union and Australian flags together.

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Turkey

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

Science & Technology

On March 27, the International Monetary Fund announced that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan, a development expected to release $1.2 billion from a $7 billion bailout package.

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement To Release $1.2B in Funding

Pakistan hosted talks with various regional actors, including Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as part of its efforts to broker a diplomatic settlement that ends the U.S. and Israel-Iran war, Reuters reported on March 29.

Middle East: Tit for Tat Attacks Escalate to Industrial Zones, Despite Regional Efforts To De-escalate

Taiwan

China's Taiwan Affairs Office announced on March 30 that the chair of Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang party, Cheng Li-wun, would visit China from April 7-12 at the invitation of President Xi Jinping.

Taiwan, China: KMT Chair Cheng To Visit Beijing, May Meet With Xi 

A Russian tanker with 100,000 metric tons of oil arrived in Cuba on March 30, a day after U.S. ​President Donald Trump said he had "no problem" with any country sending ‌crude to the island, El Pais reported on March 30.

Cuba, U.S., Russia: U.S. Allows Russian Tanker To Reach Cuba

Ethiopia

Heavy clashes erupted in the periphery of Baidoa, the interim capital of Somalia's South West state, with regional forces apparently repelling federal government-aligned forces, Garowe Online reported on March 30.

Somalia: Heavy Clashes Near Baidoa as Mogadishu Rejects South West State President's Reelection

Mongolia

The ruling Mongolian People's Party selected party head and chairman of the legislature since November, Uchral Nyam-Osoryn, to be Mongolia's next prime minister, AP reported on March 29.

Mongolia: New Prime Minister Selected After Second Resignation in a Year

Niger

Niger's junta announced plans to establish and train local self‑defense groups called "Domol Leydi" (protectors of the homeland), creating auxiliary units made up of volunteers, including former security personnel and local residents, to support national defense efforts under state oversight, RFI reported on March 30.

Niger: Junta Launches Local Self‑Defense Groups To Support National Security Efforts

World Trade Organization negotiators failed to extend their nearly 30-year-old ban on digital trade tariffs at the body's 14th ministerial conference in Cameroon, Bloomberg reported on March 30.

Global: WTO Negotiators Fail To Extend Digital Tariff Ban

CSCL Arctic Ocean and CSCL Indian Ocean -- two container vessels linked to China's state-owned shopping giant COSCO -- successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first time COSCO-linked ships have transited the strait since the U.S. and Israel-Iran war began on Feb. 28, The National reported on March 30.

Iran: Chinese Container Ships Transit the Strait of Hormuz in Second Attempt

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Iran launched attacks targeting two Gulf aluminum producers, Bloomberg reported on March 28.

UAE, Bahrain: Iran Strikes Two Major Gulf Aluminum Producers

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement To Release $1.2B in Funding

Middle East: Tit for Tat Attacks Escalate to Industrial Zones, Despite Regional Efforts To De-escalate

Taiwan, China: KMT Chair Cheng To Visit Beijing, May Meet With Xi

Cuba, U.S., Russia: U.S. Allows Russian Tanker To Reach Cuba

Somalia: Heavy Clashes Near Baidoa as Mogadishu Rejects South West State President's Reelection

Mongolia: New Prime Minister Selected After Second Resignation in a Year

Niger: Junta Launches Local Self‑Defense Groups To Support National Security Efforts

Global: WTO Negotiators Fail To Extend Digital Tariff Ban

Iran: Chinese Container Ships Transit the Strait of Hormuz in Second Attempt

UAE, Bahrain: Iran Strikes Two Major Gulf Aluminum Producers

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