Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Cuba

Mexico

United States

American Airlines planes sit on the tarmac at Jose Marti International Airport in Havana on Feb. 9, 2026. 

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

Facing imminent economic collapse and the loss of key allies, the Cuban government will likely yield to U.S. demands for market liberalization to avoid a total breakdown of state authority while attempting to preserve political control.

Economic Concessions to U.S. Offer Path for Regime Survival in Cuba

Snapshots

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister and President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Sanae Takaichi reacts as she speaks with media on the day of lower house elections at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo on Feb. 8, 2026. 

The LDP's decisive lower house victory will enable Prime Minister Takaichi to boost social and defense spending and strengthen ties with the U.S., though at the expense of Japan’s relations with China and South Korea.

Election Landslide Stabilizes Japanese Politics, Cements Defense Modernization

Tunisia

Supporters of Tunisia's General Labour Union (UGTT) wave the national flag during a rally in Tunis on Aug. 21, 2025.

If the UGTT fails to resolve internal disputes and stage an effective national strike, President Saied will likely launch an expanded crackdown that further weakens the powerful labor union and, consequently, its private-sector bargaining power.

In Tunisia, UGTT Infighting Risks Playing Into President Saied's Hands

Media

Bangladesh

Podcasts

What major challenges will the incoming government face?

What To Expect From Bangladesh's Upcoming Elections

Iran

Thailand

Campaign posters Feb. 6 of candidates running in the upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election, in Inagi, Tokyo prefecture.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan Holds Snap Elections, U.S. Weighs Options After Iran Talks

U.S.-Iran Relations

United Arab Emirates

Ukraine

Russia

Emirati flags on Feb. 4 in Abu Dhabi, UAE. On Feb. 4-5, delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States held a second round of trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The talks are unlikely to produce a near-term settlement, as Russia will continue to press its territorial demands while using diplomacy to manage sanctions pressure and build leverage ahead of a spring-summer offensive.

The Limits of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks

Indonesia

Visitors take pictures in front of an electronic board displaying falling stock prices at the Indonesia Stock Exchange in Jakarta on Jan. 29, 2026.

The episode exposes structural risks embedded in the president's governance that could threaten investor confidence -- and with it, Indonesia's economic growth and manufacturing competitiveness.

Lessons Learned From Indonesia's Market Rout

People walk past campaign posters in Bangkok on Feb. 2, 2026, ahead of Thailand's Feb. 8 general election.

Thailand's Feb. 8 general election and constitutional referendum are unlikely to deliver a decisive political reset and will instead risk extending a familiar cycle of constrained reform and policy caution amid heightened security and economic pressures.

Elections and Referendum Unlikely to End Thailand's Cycle of Constrained Governance

China

Russian soldiers wear chemical protection suits as they stand next to a military fueler on the base of a prime mover of Russian Topol intercontinental ballistic missile during a training session at the Serpukhov's military missile forces research institute some 100km outside Moscow on April 6, 2010.

Over time, this will intensify an ongoing buildup of nuclear capabilities across the globe and make crises involving nuclear powers more unpredictable and prone to miscalculations. 


Implications of the Last Major U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreement's Expiration

U.S.-China Relations

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 5, 2026

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (top, 5th from left) speaks during the election campaign rally on Jan. 29, 2026, in Himeji, Japan. 

Outcomes for the Feb. 8 snap ballot include a decisive victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party, a weakened conservative coalition and an opposition win.

Japan's Lower House Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Latest

Europe

The U.S. and the EU flags are seen side by side on Nov. 21, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium. 

By replacing Russian gas with U.S. LNG, the EU risks becoming reliant on another systemically central external supplier at a time of growing geopolitical instability and transatlantic tension.

The Strategic Risks of Europe's Pivot to U.S. LNG

Argentina

An aerial photo shows Argentinian police using a water cannon truck against protesters opposing labor reforms on Feb. 11, 2026, in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Although the labor reform is likely to be approved and may incrementally improve Argentina's hiring climate, its short-term economic impact will be limited.

Argentina's Milei Secures Senate Backing for Market-Oriented Labor Overhaul

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul arrives at the Government House in Bangkok on Feb. 9, 2026.

The incumbent conservative party's victory will improve short-term political stability, but governance will remain constrained by coalition dynamics, entrenched institutions and uncertain constitutional reform.

Thailand Approves Constitutional Reform, Re-Elects Conservative Party

United Kingdom

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves Downing Street on Feb. 2, 2026, in London. 

While the crisis could see Labour elect a new leader in the coming months, broad party consensus and fiscal constraints make sharp policy shifts unlikely, limiting the risk of sustained market volatility.

In the U.K., Starmer's Leadership Struggles Reach a Tipping Point

Turkey

A digital satellite illustration shows Europe at night.

The EU enlargement chief's upcoming visit to Turkey signals an attempt to balance cautious engagement with clear strategic interests, rather than an imminent breakthrough on the country's stalled accession process.

Understanding the EU's Strategic Reengagement With Turkey

India

A freight train on Aug. 26, 2025, in Ajmer India.

A U.S.-India trade deal will bring some relief to Indian exporters, but ambiguities over its scope, implementation timeline and myriad other flashpoints will risk undermining it.

An India-U.S. Trade Deal Will Face Ongoing Hurdles

Columns

On Geopolitics

Syria

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

Global Trade

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said in his Feb. 12 State of the Nation address that the government is committed to creating a fully independent state-owned transmission entity, which would own and operate the country's electricity grid and manage the electricity market.

South Africa: Ramaphosa Scraps Revised Eskom Reform Breakup Plan

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Rwandan‑backed M23 rebel group have reached a breakthrough with a ceasefire proposal brokered by Angola, set to take effect on Feb. 18, Radio Okapi reported on Feb 13.

Congo: Congolese Government and M23 Reach Breakthrough Ceasefire Agreement

The United States and Taiwan signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade in Washington on Feb. 12, solidifying U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese goods at 15% and offering most favored nation-level tariffs for 2,072 Taiwanese goods, the Taipei Times reported the next day. 

Taiwan, U.S.: Trade Deal Signed, Must Pass Taipei's Skeptical Legislature

Switzerland

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia, Ukraine and the United States would hold the next round of peace talks in Geneva, Switzerland, on Feb. 17-18, with presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky leading the Russian delegation, Russian state news agency TASS reported on Feb. 13.

Russia, Ukraine, U.S: Geneva Talks To Resume Feb. 17-18

Australia

Australia's opposition center-right Liberal Party ousted its leader, Sussan Ley, in favor of Angus Taylor, a former energy minister aligned with the party's conservative wing, the Financial Times reported on Feb. 13.

Australia: Opposition Reshuffle Signals Rightward Turn

Venezuela

Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez said Venezuela will hold free and fair elections by the end of U.S. President Donald Trump's term in 2028, NBC News reported on Feb. 12. 

Venezuela: Free and Fair Elections Remain Unlikely, Despite President's Statements

The U.S. Trump administration is reviewing the list of products affected by steel and aluminum tariffs and is planning to exempt some items and halt further additions to the list, the Financial Times reported on Feb. 12.

U.S.: Trump Administration May Exempt Some Steel and Aluminum Products From Tariffs

Germany

The 62nd Munich Security Conference opened on Feb. 13 in Munich, Germany, with an address by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Germany: Munich Security Conference Kicks Off With Speech by Friedrich Merz

Iraq

Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (center) delivers a speech during a campaign rally in Baghdad ahead of parliamentary elections on Nov. 7, 2025. 

If former Prime Minister al-Maliki overcomes challenges to form a new cabinet, it would likely deepen sectarian divisions, embolden Iran-backed militias and increase Iraq's exposure to U.S. financial and/or military pressure.

In Iraq, the Potential Return of a Divisive Leader Raises Alarm

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Philippines

Serbia

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

South Korea

Police raided South Korea's National Assembly, the National Intelligence Service and the National Counterterrorism Center in a bid to find evidence linking a right-wing YouTuber to a knife attack against President Lee Jae Myung in 2024, a case that would support Lee's bid for anti-extremism bills, Yonhap News Agency reported on Feb. 12.

South Korea: Lee Seeks To Silence Political Opponents, Risking U.S. Ties

China's commerce ministry finalized its tariffs on European dairy products at a maximum of 11.7%, down from the preliminary tariff released in December 2025 that topped out at 43%, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 12.

China, Europe: Beijing Reduces Dairy Tariffs in Softer Approach to Trade Talks

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

The Strategic Risks of Europe's Pivot to U.S. LNG

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

South Africa: Ramaphosa Scraps Revised Eskom Reform Breakup Plan

Congo: Congolese Government and M23 Reach Breakthrough Ceasefire Agreement

Taiwan, U.S.: Trade Deal Signed, Must Pass Taipei's Skeptical Legislature

Russia, Ukraine, U.S: Geneva Talks To Resume Feb. 17-18

Australia: Opposition Reshuffle Signals Rightward Turn

Venezuela: Free and Fair Elections Remain Unlikely, Despite President's Statements

U.S.: Trump Administration May Exempt Some Steel and Aluminum Products From Tariffs

Germany: Munich Security Conference Kicks Off With Speech by Friedrich Merz

South Korea: Lee Seeks To Silence Political Opponents, Risking U.S. Ties

China, Europe: Beijing Reduces Dairy Tariffs in Softer Approach to Trade Talks

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