Assessments

Brazil

Economics

Energy

Politics

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

If President Lula wins reelection in October, his administration would continue balancing the promotion of green initiatives with the expansion of mining and drilling, while retaining strategic neutrality in the U.S.-China competition.

The Balance Between Environmental and Extractive Policies in Brazil's Presidential Election, Part 1

Snapshots

United Kingdom

Military & Security

While a Ukraine loan scheme will offer opportunities for British companies, it will not reintegrate the United Kingdom into EU defense structures.

A Small Step for EU-British Defense Cooperation

Media

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Podcasts

Why is the United States involved in the mediation process? 

The Decision Advantage: Key Drivers of the Congo-Rwanda Conflict

United States

Iran

Australia

Japan

India

An oil products tanker at Muscat Anchorage on March 21, 2026 at Sultan Qaboos Port in Muscat, Oman. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.K. Elections, Iran War Resumption Risk

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

An oil tanker is seen docked in the southeastern Iranian coastal city of Chabahar, on the Gulf of Oman, in February 2019.

Chabahar is poised to transition from an ambitious commercial venture to a symbolic strategic asset, as India seeks to maintain long-term access and regional influence until sanctions conditions become clearer.

Expired U.S. Sanctions Waiver Threatens India's Chabahar Port Project in Iran

What are the key domestic pressures impacting U.S. strategy?

The Decision Advantage: The Outlook for U.S.-Iran Negotiations

Kazakhstan

Russia

An aerial view shows the Kazakh village of Ulken (foreground), where the country's first nuclear power plant is set to be built, on Sept. 22, 2024.

Kazakhstan will seek to balance its reliance on Russia to build its first nuclear plant by partnering with China on subsequent projects and by leveraging new mining laws to extract downstream technology from foreign partners.

Kazakhstan's Strategy to Control Its Nuclear Future Amid Russian Leverage

China

A Chinese vessel participates in oil exploration.

While China has so far fared well, persistent Strait of Hormuz disruptions would test its oil reserves and drive more defensive policies to secure growth, energy and export competitiveness.

Time Will Test China's Economic Resilience Against Iran War Shocks

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 30, 2026

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer departs 10 Downing Street on April 29 in London. While a leadership challenge against the British prime minister is possible, policy continuity is likely no matter who governs.

While a leadership challenge against the British prime minister is possible, policy continuity is likely no matter who governs. Meanwhile, strong pro-independence gains are possible in Scotland and Wales, but not near-term independence.

Labour's Starmer Faces Bleak Local U.K. Electoral Prospects

Europe

Germany

Direction signs point to Germany and France in the town of Schengen where the 1985 European Schengen Agreement was signed on May 11, 2016 in Schengen, Luxembourg. 

The reintroduction of border controls by countries across the Schengen area is acting as a slow structural drag on the continent's economic competitiveness.


'Temporary' Schengen Border Controls Threaten Europe's Integrated Supply Chains

Latest

Algeria

Spain

Italy

A worker stands on the uploading dock of Cavaou LNG terminal in Fos-sur-Mer, France, on June 22, 2023, while the tanker boat "Lalla Fatma N'Soumer" arrives full of LNG ready to be delivered. 

Amid energy supply disruptions in the Middle East, Algeria's ability to capitalize on increased global prices and demand for energy exports will be constrained by limited spare capacity and bureaucratic obstacles.

Structural Constraints Will Limit Algeria's Ability To Capitalize on Tighter Energy Markets

Environment, Science & Technology

If Flavio Bolsonaro wins in October, his right-wing administration would largely abandon Brazil's environmental and climate commitments, accelerate extractive investments and projects, and pursue strong geopolitical alignment with Washington.

The Balance Between Environmental and Extractive Policies in Brazil's Presidential Election, Part 2

Israel

United Arab Emirates

An Emirates Boeing 777 aircraft prepares for landing as a smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16.

A military response from the United States aiming to compel Iranian concessions without committing to ground operations could trigger a prolonged cycle of retaliatory attacks between U.S. allies and Iran.


Iran, U.S. Ceasefire at Elevated Risk of Collapse After Iran Attacks UAE

Canada

Alberta separatists gather during a rally in front of the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026.

A renewed independence push in Alberta is highly unlikely to succeed, but Ottawa will still likely have to confront stronger secessionist pressures in Quebec after elections later this year. 

What To Make of the Albertan Secessionist Movement in Canada

Saudi Arabia

The skyline of Dubai is seen on March 11, 2026.

The UAE's exit will enable it to boost production more quickly once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, while hindering OPEC's ability to manage the subsequent price drops.

The UAE's Exit From OPEC Further Diminishes the Oil Cartel's Relevance

Romania

Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan delivers a speech to lawmakers in parliament in Bucharest on June 23, 2025.

The crisis could undermine fiscal consolidation and further empower far-right forces, potentially reversing Romania's EU alignment and harming its economic credibility.

Romania's Latest Political Crisis Threatens Fiscal Reform and EU Alignment

Cuba

A general view of El Capitolio and the Havana skyline on December 16, 2014, in Havana, Cuba.

A recent unannounced U.S. diplomatic visit to Havana bodes well for a deal that reduces tensions, but Washington's ongoing demands for political and economic reforms will sustain the risk of a U.S. military and/or law enforcement operation.

U.S.-Cuba Talks Progress, but Threat of Military Action Still Looms

Egypt

The exterior facade of the new headquarters of Egypt's central bank is seen at the New Administrative Capital megaproject about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo, on Aug. 1, 2023. 

Egypt will try to avoid submitting to another IMF loan program, which would likely require unpopular austerity and privatization measures. But the escalating economic impact of the Iran war may eventually force its hand.

Iran War Fallout Could Force Egypt to Seek Another Unpopular IMF Bailout

Satellite imagery shows a broad view of the Strait of Hormuz between southern Iran and Oman's Musandam Peninsula on April 7, 2026.

Pledges to reopen the strait will support U.S.-Iran diplomatic momentum and reduce near-term escalation risks, but shipping activity will recover only gradually amid persistent tensions, with a continued risk of disruption until a durable agreement is reached.

The Operational vs. Diplomatic Impact of the Strait of Hormuz's Nominal Re-Opening

Haiti

Debris surrounds a school destroyed by armed gangs back in 2024 in the Solino neighborhood of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on March 3, 2026.

Haiti's extreme insecurity and political instability are highly unlikely to improve ahead of planned elections in August, raising the risk of mass unrest that could collapse the already weakened government.

Haiti's Security and Political Crises Heighten Risk of State Collapse

Columns

On Geopolitics

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Lebanon

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Iraq

Libya

Turkey

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The U.S. Department of State approved a foreign military sale to Ukraine of up to $374 million worth of extended-range Joint Direct Attack Munition kits and related equipment, Bloomberg reported on May 5. 

U.S., Ukraine: Washington Approves Guided Bomb Kit Sale To Sustain Ukraine's Precision-Strike Capacity

Guatemala

Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo announced his appointment of lawyer Gabriel Estuardo Garcia Luna as the new attorney general and head of the Public Prosecutor's Office for the 2026-30 term, InfoBae reported on May 5.

Guatemala: President Appoints New Attorney General 

North Korea

South Korea

North Korea revised its constitution to remove references to Korean reunification and define North Korean territory as bordering China, Russia and the Republic of Korea, AFP reported on May 6.

North Korea: Pyongyang Codifies Abandonment of Reunification

Vietnam

India and Vietnam elevated ties to an enhanced comprehensive strategic partnership during Vietnamese leader To Lam's May 5-7 state visit, during which he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi set a target to raise bilateral trade from $16 billion currently to $25 billion by 2030, according to a joint statement released on May 6.

Vietnam, India: Strategic Upgrade Expands Rare Earth, Defense Ties

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing, where Wang called for a ceasefire between Iran, the United States and Israel and warned that the Iran war was entering a critical phase, AP reported on May 6.

China, Iran: Beijing Presses Tehran on De-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz

Ethiopia

The Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, unilaterally reconvened the 2020 Tigray State Council and announced the election of TPLF Chair Debretsion Gebremichael as its head, stating that these moves were in response to the Ethiopian government having "violated" the 2022 peace deal that ended the Tigray war, Addis Standard reported on May 5. 

Ethiopia: TPLF Unilaterally Reinstates 2020 Regional Council 

A sanctioned Russian tanker, the Universal, has drifted nearly 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) off the Cuban coast since mid-April, Bloomberg reported on May 5.

Cuba, Russia, U.S.: Russian Tanker Headed To Cuba Halts in the Atlantic

The White House reportedly believes the United States and Iran are close to agreeing to a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding that would permanently end the war, after U.S. President Donald Trump suspended the Project Freedom guiding mission in the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress in negotiations, Axios reported on May 6.

U.S., Iran: White House Optimistic About One-Page MoU With Iran, Suspends 'Project Freedom'

Venezuela

The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced on May 5 that it had issued a license allowing Venezuela to hire consultants and legal and financial advisers for debt restructuring negotiations.

Venezuela, U.S.: Washington Authorizes Caracas To Engage Advisers for Debt Restructuring

Science & Technology

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Representatives of the European Parliament, the European Council and the European Commission will meet to discuss the 2025 EU-U.S. trade agreement on May 6, Euronews reported the same day.

EU, U.S.: EU Trilogue Negotiations on U.S. Trade Deal To Commence

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

What To Make of the Albertan Secessionist Movement in Canada

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Ukraine: Washington Approves Guided Bomb Kit Sale To Sustain Ukraine's Precision-Strike Capacity

Guatemala: President Appoints New Attorney General

North Korea: Pyongyang Codifies Abandonment of Reunification

Vietnam, India: Strategic Upgrade Expands Rare Earth, Defense Ties

China, Iran: Beijing Presses Tehran on De-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz

Ethiopia: TPLF Unilaterally Reinstates 2020 Regional Council

Cuba, Russia, U.S.: Russian Tanker Headed To Cuba Halts in the Atlantic

U.S., Iran: White House Optimistic About One-Page MoU With Iran, Suspends 'Project Freedom'

Venezuela, U.S.: Washington Authorizes Caracas To Engage Advisers for Debt Restructuring

EU, U.S.: EU Trilogue Negotiations on U.S. Trade Deal To Commence

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