Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 9, 2026

Media

Sub-Saharan Africa

France

Podcasts

Military & Security

How have dynamics evolved since France and the United States withdrew from the region? 

The Decision Advantage: Jihadist Insurgency in the Sahel and West Africa

Europe

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Eurasia

Ukraine

Russia

A soldier from the "Taifun" unmanned aerial vehicle unit prepares a new strike drone for flight on April 7, 2026 in Ukraine. 

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Although Moscow is threatening retaliation against Baltic states over supposed involvement in Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, the Kremlin will not risk a direct military confrontation with NATO.


Direct NATO-Russia Confrontation in the Baltic Unlikely, Despite Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure 

Japan

Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi answers questions at a legislative budget committee session in Tokyo on April 7, 2026, while Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (left) looks on. 

Economics

Japan's ability to sustain increased spending on defense and other strategic investments in the coming years will be constrained by sluggish economic growth, high government debt and a challenging geopolitical landscape.

Reviewing Japan's New Budget: Balancing Spending Hikes and Fiscal Reality

Columns

On Geopolitics

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

Peru

The exterior facade of the Legislative Palace of Peru is seen in Lima.

With a record 35 candidates running in the April 12 race and no clear frontrunner, numerous scenarios remain possible, including a win by an anti-establishment outsider, a mainstream right-wing figure or another leftist.

Peru's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Snapshots

Iran

China

Myanmar

Afghanistan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

A freight train carrying cargo containers rides along a railway track in Ajmer, India, on Aug. 26, 2025.

Global Trade

New Delhi's decisions to permit specific imports and fast-track minority investments highlight its strategy of addressing critical manufacturing shortages, though relations are unlikely to extend beyond low-level confidence-building measures.

India Cautiously Opens up to Chinese Investment

Djibouti

Israel

Taiwan

Vietnam

Damage at the Azadi Sport Complex in the Iranian capital of Tehran on April 3.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Taiwan's KMT Restarts China Talks

U.S.-Iran Relations

Iraq

Iraqi women light candles in memory of the victims of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and Lebanon during a rally in Baghdad's Tahrir Square on April 2, 2026.

Energy

Violent spillover from the Iran war will further complicate Iraq's government formation process, while disrupted oil exports will heavily strain Baghdad's finances and raise the risk of unrest.

Iraq Is Caught in the Crossfire of Another Destabilizing War

Myanmar's then-military chief Min Aung Hlaing prepares to deliver a speech during a memorial event at the Myanmar International Convention Center in Naypyidaw on March 28, 2026, to mark the first anniversary since a 7.7-magnitude tremor killed more than 3,800 people in Myanmar.

Myanmar's transition from military to civilian governance will not lead to a meaningful transfer of power, nor will it impact the country's civil war.

Myanmar's Government Transitions to Civilian Rule in Name Only

Rastriya Swatantra Party leader Balendra Shah is sworn in as Nepal's new prime minister in Kathmandu on March 27, 2026.

Prolonged global supply chain disruptions and threats to foreign remittances linked to the war will constrain the new administration's ability to deliver on its economic promises.


New Nepalese Government's Agenda Threatened by Iran War Fallout

Latest

Vietnamese Communist Party general secretary To Lam speaks during the opening session of the National Assembly in Hanoi on April 6, 2026.

The leadership consolidation points to a governing model focused on speed, discipline and execution, albeit with increased risks stemming from reduced internal debate and fewer institutional checks.

Vietnam's Lam Makes History by Assuming Dual Role of Party Leader and President

Lebanon

A satellite view of the Persian Gulf, with the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint seen on the right.

Fears that U.S.-Iran talks will collapse, along with Iran's ongoing efforts to formalize its authority over the strait by imposing transit fees and limiting traffic, will likely keep shippers cautious.

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Likely To Remain Disrupted, Despite Ceasefire

Argentina

View of the Perito Moreno Glacier at Los Glaciares National Park near El Calafate, Santa Cruz province, Argentina, taken on June 8, 2025.

Environment, Science & Technology

By dismantling uniform national protections in favor of provincial oversight, Argentina aims to stimulate its extractive-export economy but will risk the long-term security of water-dependent sectors and the environment.

Argentina's Revised Glaciers Law Will Unlock Mining Investment, but Risks Environmental Degradation

Iranians hold national flags as they gather in Tehran's Revolution Square after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, on April 8, 2026 in Tehran, Iran.

Upcoming negotiations face substantial hurdles as both sides present maximalist demands that could precipitate a return to high-intensity conflict.


Despite 11th-Hour U.S.-Iran Truce, Stumbling Blocks to Lasting Agreement Remain

Italy

Opposition supporters celebrate the defeat of a referendum on justice reform March 23 in Rome. The defeat exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

The defeat of a highly politicized judicial reform referendum exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

What a Failed Italian Referendum Means for the Meloni Government

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire from April 11-12, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv would observe, Reuters reported on April 9.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Announces Easter Ceasefire

Colombia

Ecuador

Ecuador announced that it would raise tariffs on Colombian imports from 50% to 100% starting on May 1 due to "Colombia's failure to implement concrete and effective border security ‌measures," Reuters reported on April 9, citing a government statement.

Ecuador, Colombia: Ecuador Raises Tariffs on Colombia as Diplomatic Tensions Escalate 

Nigeria

The United States has expanded its travel advisory for Nigeria, urging citizens to reconsider travel due to worsening security conditions and authorizing the departure of nonemergency government staff and their families from its embassy in Abuja, Reuters reported on April 9. 

Nigeria, U.S.: U.S. Expands Travel Warning in Capital Amid Worsening Insecurity

Ethiopia

The Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, said the Ethiopian government's decision to extend Tigray Chief Administrator Lt. Gen. Tadesse Werede's term by one year was made unilaterally, claiming this breached the 2022 Pretoria Agreement that ended the Tigray war, Addis Standard reported on April 9.

Ethiopia: TPLF Accuses Government of Violating Peace Deal Over Extension of Tigray Administration Term

Science & Technology

The chair of Taiwan's opposition party Kuomintang, or KMT, Cheng Li-wun, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, where Xi pushed for the party to uphold its Chinese identity and support the "One China" principle, but he also welcomed Taiwanese agricultural and fishery imports, Xinhua reported on April 10.

China, Taiwan: Taiwan's Opposition Leader and China's President Meet

Australia

Singapore

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong agreed to accelerate a legally binding protocol under the two countries' free trade agreement, with Australia reaffirming liquefied natural gas supplies to Singapore and Singapore pledging continued refined fuel exports to Australia, according to a joint statement released by the two leaders on April 10.

Australia, Singapore: Countries To Undertake Treaty-Backed Energy Crisis Coordination

U.S. Vice President JD Vance is traveling to Pakistan to lead a U.S. delegation ahead of April 11 negotiations with Iran's delegation, which is expected to be helmed by Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, AP reported on April 10.

U.S., Iran, Israel: U.S., Iranian Negotiators Prepare for Islamabad Talks

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country was discussing security cooperation with Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain, Reuters reported on April 10.

Ukraine, MENA: Kyiv in Talks for More Security Cooperation With Gulf Countries

South Korea

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (C) answers questions during a plenary session of the House of Representatives at Parliament on March 26 in Tokyo. Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

A New Leader in Japan and an Old Feud With China

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

Sri Lanka

The International Monetary Fund reached a staff-level agreement with Sri Lanka, paving the way to unlock approximately $700 million in financing and bringing total disbursements under the program to about $2.4 billion, Reuters reported on April 9. 

Sri Lanka: Government Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With IMF

A Russian frigate escorted two sanctioned tankers through the English Channel as a British support vessel followed behind, The Telegraph reported on April 8. 

Russia, U.K.: Russian Warship Escorts Sanctioned Tankers Through English Channel

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Argentina's Revised Glaciers Law Will Unlock Mining Investment, but Risks Environmental Degradation

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Announces Easter Ceasefire

Ecuador, Colombia: Ecuador Raises Tariffs on Colombia as Diplomatic Tensions Escalate

Nigeria, U.S.: U.S. Expands Travel Warning in Capital Amid Worsening Insecurity

Ethiopia: TPLF Accuses Government of Violating Peace Deal Over Extension of Tigray Administration Term

China, Taiwan: Taiwan's Opposition Leader and China's President Meet

Australia, Singapore: Countries To Undertake Treaty-Backed Energy Crisis Coordination

U.S., Iran, Israel: U.S., Iranian Negotiators Prepare for Islamabad Talks

Ukraine, MENA: Kyiv in Talks for More Security Cooperation With Gulf Countries

Sri Lanka: Government Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With IMF

Russia, U.K.: Russian Warship Escorts Sanctioned Tankers Through English Channel

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