Assessments

Chile

Colombia

United States

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

China

Germany

Greece

France

United Kingdom

Cyprus

Netherlands

Spain

Italy

Plumes of smoke rise following reported explosions in Tehran on March 2, 2026, after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top military leaders, prompting a new wave of Iranian retaliatory missile attacks across the region. 

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: War in the Middle East, U.S.-China Trade Talks

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Indonesia

Japan

South Korea

Vietnam

The U.S. Supreme Court in October 2024 in Washington.

The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against the Trump administration's tariffs imposed under the IEEPA still leaves Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam vulnerable to other trade escalation mechanisms.

Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam Assess Their U.S. Trade Deals After IEEPA Tariffs

The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (R91) on Feb. 25 at the quay of the North Port in Malmo, Sweden. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East would increase Europe's exposure to security risks, including potential attacks on European-linked assets, renewed migration pressures and an elevated terrorism threat, particularly if European capitals assume a more active military or diplomatic role against the Iranian regime.

A protracted regional war threatens to expose the Continent to risks ranging from cyberattacks against critical infrastructure to a renewed influx of asylum seekers.

Prolonged Conflict in Iran Would Elevate Security, Migration Threats Against Europe

Iraq

Turkey

Members of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) participate in a military drill in an outpost near Arbil, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, on Jan. 15, 2026.

Although arming Iranian Kurdish factions might increase pressure on Tehran, such an uprising alone would be unlikely to collapse the regime, while significantly raising the risk of drawing Turkey and Iraq into the conflict.

The Risks and Constraints of a U.S.-Backed Kurdish Uprising in Iran

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 5, 2026

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Senior members of Ethiopia's armed forces attend a ceremony in Guba on Sept. 9, 2025.

The Ethiopian government's military buildup near Tigray suggests that fresh clashes with the TPLF are likely in the coming months, which could quickly morph into a major, protracted conflict that draws in neighboring Eritrea.

Assessing the Risk of Conflict in Northern Ethiopia: Short-Term Scenarios

Volunteers clean up the rubble outside a government building in Tehran, Iran, that was destroyed by U.S. and Israeli strikes on March 4, 2026.

Energy

The war will most likely end in a tenuous ceasefire in the coming weeks, though a faster or slower truce is possible, depending on the U.S.'s political resolve to maintain its campaign against Iran.

The Iran War Will Last as Long as U.S. Political Resolve Does

India

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on Feb. 3 in Washington.

India will likely delay finalizing its trade deal with the United States while seeking opportunities to expand its Russian oil imports, creating a risk of U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs against it.

The State of the Indian-U.S. Trade Deal After IEEPA Tariffs

Ukraine

Russia

A Ukrainian serviceman stands next to a truck equipped with a machine gun during an air raid alert in Kyiv on Jan. 24, 2026, amid Russia’s ongoing invasion.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia's ability to sustain its war efforts despite mounting economic strain, combined with the U.S.'s new focus on Iran, makes meaningful progress in peace talks unlikely anytime soon.

Ukraine War Enters Its Fifth Year, With No Near End in Sight

Columns

On Geopolitics

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Environment, Science & Technology

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

People attend a gathering honoring Iran's former Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on March 1, 2026, at Ashura Square in southern Beirut, Lebanon. 

The Iran war has thrown a wrench in Iraq's and Lebanon's political stalemates, likely further prolonging government formation and delaying elections.

Political Stalemates in Iraq and Lebanon Deepen Amid Regional Instability

Latest

Ecuador

U.S. President Donald Trump greets Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa at his "Shield of the Americas" summit, a gathering with heads of state and government officials from 12 countries in the Americas at the Trump National Doral Golf Club on March 7, 2026, in Doral, Florida. 

The United States' increasing interventionism across the Americas has led to joint military operations with Ecuador, which, if sustained, could successfully reduce cartel violence there.

U.S.-Ecuador Military Operations Expand Washington's Regional Interventionism

Jordan

Syria

Jordanian Armed Forces, U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps forces and other international forces conduct a combined Arms Live Fire Exercise on May 23, 2024 in the desert near Azraq, Jordan. 

As the United States prepares to withdraw its final troops from Syria, Amman will likely expand cross-border security operations to counter Islamic State and disrupt drug smuggling networks.

Jordan Likely To Step Up Anti-Islamic State, Countersmuggling Operations in Syria

Egypt

A an Iranian missile that landed March 4 near the Turkish border in the Qamishli district of al-Hasaka, Syria. Although direct strikes as part of Iranian regional retaliation remain unlikely, the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran threatens Egypt and Turkey with energy disruptions and security challenges.

Although direct strikes as part of Iranian regional retaliation remain unlikely, the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran threatens Egypt and Turkey with energy disruptions and security challenges.

Evaluating the Spillover Risks of the Iran War for Egypt and Turkey

Snapshots

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Yemen

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

Europe

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

Australia

European Union and Australian flags together.

Global Trade

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

Mexico

A burned car is seen on a highway near Acatlan de Juarez, Jalisco state, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. The car was allegedly set on fire by organized crime groups in response to the killing of Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," the top leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

The killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel's notorious leader will initially improve U.S.-Mexico ties, but the likely surge in cartel violence will pose long-term risks to businesses and eventually renew pressure for U.S. military action in Mexico.

What a Cartel Leader's Killing Means for Mexico's Security and U.S. Relations

Somalia

Sudan

Libya

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Argentina

Bolivia

Costa Rica

Dominican Republic

El Salvador

Guyana

Honduras

Panama

Paraguay

Trinidad and Tobago

The United States hosted the "Shield of the Americas" summit in Doral, Florida, during which U.S. President Donald Trump signed a proclamation launching a coalition to combat drug cartels, The Guardian reported on March 7.

U.S., Latin America: Shield of the Americas Summit Establishes Coalition To Combat Cartels

Taiwan

South Korea's presidential office pledged on March 9 to move toward implementing a price cap on fuel that week and added that Seoul is investigating tax evasion and price collusion among refineries and gas stations.

Northeast Asia: Fuel Price Controls Inbound, Oil Reserve Releases Under Consideration

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai visited Japan in a private capacity to attend a World Baseball Classic game in Tokyo between Taiwan's national team and that of the Czech Republic on March 7.

Taiwan, Japan: Premier Cho Privately Visits Tokyo, Risking Chinese Retaliation

Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir met with Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman to discuss Iran's attacks on Saudi Arabia and potential joint measures under their strategic defense agreement, Geo News reported on March 7.

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia: Governments Discuss Joint Measures To Counter Iranian Attacks

Thailand

Local media sources, including Thai PBS, claimed on March 8 that Thai Premier Anutin Charnvirakul had finalized a roughly 290-seat ruling coalition for the 500-seat House of Representatives, including his Bhumjaithai Party (with 191 seats), the center-left Pheu Thai (74) and 13 smaller parties.

Thailand: Premier Anutin Forms Pro-Business Coalition, Reports Claim

European natural gas prices surged on March 9 as the war in the Middle East continued to disrupt global energy markets and seaborne fuel shipments, Reuters reported the same day. 

Europe: Gas Prices Jump as Iran War Disrupts Supply

Canada

G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting on March 9 to discuss the impact of the Iran war on global energy markets and possible stabilisation measures, including a release of strategic oil reserves, Reuters reported the same day.

Global: G7 Considers Coordinated Strategic Oil Reserve Release as Iran War Drives Crude Above $100

Cyber

Science & Technology

The White House released its National Cyber Strategy on March 6, outlining six pillars to guide U.S. cyber operations and calling for "unprecedented coordination between the government and the private sector."

U.S.: White House Releases National Cyber Strategy, Trump Signs Executive Order

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

U.S. investigators believe that Chinese state-sponsored threat actors are responsible for breaching computer networks linked to the FBI that hold information related to domestic surveillance orders, The Wall Street Journal reported on March 6. 

China, U.S.: Chinese Threat Actors Suspected of FBI Breach

On March 7, U.S. President Donald Trump said he did not want the Kurds to conduct an offensive into Iran, pouring cold water on the rumored operation, The Times of Israel reported the next day.

U.S., Israel, Iran: Trump Downplays Kurdish Role in Iran War, De-escalation Remains Out of Reach

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

U.S.-Ecuador Military Operations Expand Washington's Regional Interventionism

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Latin America: Shield of the Americas Summit Establishes Coalition To Combat Cartels

Northeast Asia: Fuel Price Controls Inbound, Oil Reserve Releases Under Consideration

Taiwan, Japan: Premier Cho Privately Visits Tokyo, Risking Chinese Retaliation

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia: Governments Discuss Joint Measures To Counter Iranian Attacks

Thailand: Premier Anutin Forms Pro-Business Coalition, Reports Claim

Europe: Gas Prices Jump as Iran War Disrupts Supply

Global: G7 Considers Coordinated Strategic Oil Reserve Release as Iran War Drives Crude Above $100

U.S.: White House Releases National Cyber Strategy, Trump Signs Executive Order

China, U.S.: Chinese Threat Actors Suspected of FBI Breach

U.S., Israel, Iran: Trump Downplays Kurdish Role in Iran War, De-escalation Remains Out of Reach

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