Assessments

United States

Iran

China

Germany

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the press Feb. 2 in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver the annual State of the Union address to Congress on Feb. 24.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Threatens Iran, Pledges To Reimpose Tariffs on Different Grounds

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Columns

On Security

Israel

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

On Geopolitics

Europe

France

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 19, 2026

Ukraine

City authorities and businesses rebuild residential buildings damaged by Russian shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on July 12, 2023.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While European governments can fund Ukraine's war effort this year and next, securing the investment needed to rebuild damaged infrastructure will face significant political, economic and structural hurdles.

The Challenge of Rebuilding Ukraine's Economy

Algeria

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The national flag of Algeria flies near the Bay of Algiers against the backdrop of the old town known as the Casbah and cargo containers in Algiers, Algeria, on Aug. 25, 2022.

Divergences between Algeria and the United Arab Emirates are poised to grow and may lead to a diplomatic break.

Algeria's Grievances With the UAE Deepen Amid Strategic Divergences

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Philippine Foreign Minister Theresa Lazaro speaks at a press conference during a Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Cebu City, the Philippines, on Jan. 29, 2026.

The coming year will test ASEAN's ability to maintain unity, manage crises and remain a credible regional forum amid rising internal security risks and a more fractured world order, particularly as the Philippines butts heads with China in the South China Sea.

Previewing the Philippines 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Yemen

U.S. Vice President JD Vance's shadow is seen as he speaks during a press conference following a military briefing at the civilian military coordination center on Oct. 21, 2025, in Kiryat Gat, Israel. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Negotiations over a new Israel-U.S. security agreement signal a pivot in the bilateral relationship as Israel increasingly focuses on strengthening its domestic defense industry.

How Israel's Defense Sector Will Evolve Amid the Government's Push for Self-Reliance

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

Slovakia

Hungary

Russia

India

U.S. President Donald Trump (C) holds up his signature on the founding charter of the Board of Peace among other world leaders at the World Economic Forum on Jan. 22 in Davos, Switzerland.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: The Board of Peace Convenes, Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks in Geneva

Bangladesh

A man walks past campaign posters of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chairman and Tarique Rahman in Dhaka on Feb. 13, 2026.

The transition from an interim administration will likely restore political stability, though social and fiscal pressures will still pose constraints for the new center-right government.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party Wins Big in First Election Since 2024 Uprising

Latest

Somalia

Sudan

Syria

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (R) inspect the honor guard during an official welcoming ceremony at the presidential complex in Ankara, Turkey, on June 22, 2022.

After years of discord, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are finding common ground as they increasingly position themselves against Emirati- and Israeli-backed regional initiatives. 

Saudi Arabia and Turkey's New Regional Alignment

Snapshots

Mexico

A burned car is seen on a highway near Acatlan de Juarez, Jalisco state, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. The car was allegedly set on fire by organized crime groups in response to the killing of Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," the top leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

The killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel's notorious leader will initially improve U.S.-Mexico ties, but the likely surge in cartel violence will pose long-term risks to businesses and eventually renew pressure for U.S. military action in Mexico.

What a Cartel Leader's Killing Means for Mexico's Security and U.S. Relations

Canada

Japan

South Korea

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House on Feb. 20, 2026, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump's use of emergency powers to implement international trade tariffs.

Global Trade

The Trump administration will use other trade authorities to replace many of the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, meaning U.S. trading partners will remain incentivized to engage on trade matters.

What the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Means for Trump and U.S. Trading Partners

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Egypt

Destroyed vehicles are strewn outside Sudan's finance ministry building in the capital Khartoum on Jan. 17, 2026, after nearly three years of devastating war in the country.

Ethiopia's apparent tilt toward the RSF paramilitary group in neighboring Sudan could trigger deadly border clashes and prompt the Sudanese military to deepen ties with Tigrayan forces.

Ethiopia Discreetly Dips Into Sudan's Civil War

Argentina

An aerial photo shows Argentinian police using a water cannon truck against protesters opposing labor reforms on Feb. 11, 2026, in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Although the labor reform is likely to be approved and may incrementally improve Argentina's hiring climate, its short-term economic impact will be limited.

Argentina's Milei Secures Senate Backing for Market-Oriented Labor Overhaul

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul arrives at the Government House in Bangkok on Feb. 9, 2026.

The incumbent conservative party's victory will improve short-term political stability, but governance will remain constrained by coalition dynamics, entrenched institutions and uncertain constitutional reform.

Thailand Approves Constitutional Reform, Re-Elects Conservative Party

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves Downing Street on Feb. 2, 2026, in London. 

While the crisis could see Labour elect a new leader in the coming months, broad party consensus and fiscal constraints make sharp policy shifts unlikely, limiting the risk of sustained market volatility.

In the U.K., Starmer's Leadership Struggles Reach a Tipping Point

Japanese Prime Minister and President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Sanae Takaichi reacts as she speaks with media on the day of lower house elections at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo on Feb. 8, 2026. 

The LDP's decisive lower house victory will enable Prime Minister Takaichi to boost social and defense spending and strengthen ties with the U.S., though at the expense of Japan’s relations with China and South Korea.

Election Landslide Stabilizes Japanese Politics, Cements Defense Modernization

Tunisia

Supporters of Tunisia's General Labour Union (UGTT) wave the national flag during a rally in Tunis on Aug. 21, 2025.

If the UGTT fails to resolve internal disputes and stage an effective national strike, President Saied will likely launch an expanded crackdown that further weakens the powerful labor union and, consequently, its private-sector bargaining power.

In Tunisia, UGTT Infighting Risks Playing Into President Saied's Hands

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Lithuania

Belarus

Belarus began mass snap reserve call-ups in its western Grodno region bordering Poland and Lithuania as part of an unscheduled combat readiness inspection, with thousands reportedly summoned on hours' notice and transported to training grounds, Charter'97 reported on Feb. 23.

Belarus: Snap Reserve Call-Ups Near NATO Borders

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Pakistani officials said on Feb. 22 that the country's military launched airstrikes overnight Feb. 21 targeting seven "terrorist camps and hideouts" linked to Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and Islamic State Khorasan Province in the eastern Afghan provinces of Nangarhar, Paktika and Khost, killing at least 70-80 militants, Dawn reported on Feb. 22. 

Pakistan, Afghanistan: Pakistan Launches Latest Cross-Border Strikes in Retaliation for Militant Attacks

Burkina Faso

Ghana

Ghana and Burkina Faso signed at least seven agreements to enhance security collaboration, tighten border controls, improve intelligence sharing and counterterrorism coordination, and combat drug trafficking, Jeune Afrique reported on Feb. 22.

Burkina Faso, Ghana: Governments To Strengthen Cooperation Amid Jihadist Insurgency

U.S. President Donald Trump met with Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam at the White House for their first formal in-person talks, Reuters reported on Feb. 20.

Vietnam, U.S.: Washington Vows To Ease Export Restrictions on Hanoi

North Korea

North Korea's Workers' Party reelected Kim Jong Un as general secretary at its ongoing ninth Party congress, which has so far focused on strengthening North Korea's "war deterrence" centered on nuclear weapons capacity, Yonhap News Agency reported on Feb. 23. 

North Korea: Kim Reaffirmed as Party Chief, Nuclear Policy Entrenched

Chad

Uganda

Chad closed its eastern border with Sudan amid severe clashes between forces loyal to the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, in the locality of Tina in Sudan's North Darfur state, with RSF forces allegedly clashing with Chadian security forces near the locality, Reuters reported on Feb. 23.

Sudan: Chad Closes Border Amid Severe Clashes, SAF Lambasts Museveni's Meeting With RSF's Hemedti

The European Parliament suspended ratification of the EU-U.S. trade agreement, International Trade Committee Chair Bernd Lange said Feb. 23.

EU, U.S.: European Parliament Freezes EU-U.S. Trade Deal Ratification Amid Renewed Tariff Uncertainty

Energy

Hungary vetoed approval of a 90-billion-euro ($106-billion) emergency loan for Ukraine as well as a new sanctions package against Russia, Politico reported Feb. 23. 

EU, Hungary, Russia, Ukraine: Hungary Blocks EU Ukraine Loan and Russia Sanctions 

Iraq

Jordan

U.S. forces began to withdraw from Syria's Qasrak military base in the northeast, though the United States still maintains a military presence at the Rmelan base near the Syria-Iraq border, Reuters reported on Feb. 23.

Syria, U.S.: U.S. Forces Withdraw From Qasrak, Islamic State Calls for 'New Phase' Against Syria

Science & Technology

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Protests by university students broke out on Feb. 21 at several places inside Iran and continued into Feb. 22, BBC reported.

Iran: Iranian Protests Resurface Ahead of Third Round of Talks on Feb. 26

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

What a Cartel Leader's Killing Means for Mexico's Security and U.S. Relations

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Belarus: Snap Reserve Call-Ups Near NATO Borders

Pakistan, Afghanistan: Pakistan Launches Latest Cross-Border Strikes in Retaliation for Militant Attacks

Burkina Faso, Ghana: Governments To Strengthen Cooperation Amid Jihadist Insurgency

Vietnam, U.S.: Washington Vows To Ease Export Restrictions on Hanoi

North Korea: Kim Reaffirmed as Party Chief, Nuclear Policy Entrenched

Sudan: Chad Closes Border Amid Severe Clashes, SAF Lambasts Museveni's Meeting With RSF's Hemedti

EU, U.S.: European Parliament Freezes EU-U.S. Trade Deal Ratification Amid Renewed Tariff Uncertainty

EU, Hungary, Russia, Ukraine: Hungary Blocks EU Ukraine Loan and Russia Sanctions

Syria, U.S.: U.S. Forces Withdraw From Qasrak, Islamic State Calls for 'New Phase' Against Syria

Iran: Iranian Protests Resurface Ahead of Third Round of Talks on Feb. 26

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