Assessments

Peru

The exterior facade of the Legislative Palace of Peru is seen in Lima.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

With a record 35 candidates running in the April 12 race and no clear frontrunner, numerous scenarios remain possible, including a win by an anti-establishment outsider, a mainstream right-wing figure or another leftist.

Peru's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Snapshots

Iran

China

Myanmar

Afghanistan

India

Nepal

Pakistan

A freight train carrying cargo containers rides along a railway track in Ajmer, India, on Aug. 26, 2025.

Global Trade

New Delhi's decisions to permit specific imports and fast-track minority investments highlight its strategy of addressing critical manufacturing shortages, though relations are unlikely to extend beyond low-level confidence-building measures.

India Cautiously Opens up to Chinese Investment

Djibouti

United States

Israel

Taiwan

Vietnam

Damage at the Azadi Sport Complex in the Iranian capital of Tehran on April 3.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Taiwan's KMT Restarts China Talks

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Iraq

Iraqi women light candles in memory of the victims of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and Lebanon during a rally in Baghdad's Tahrir Square on April 2, 2026.

Energy

Violent spillover from the Iran war will further complicate Iraq's government formation process, while disrupted oil exports will heavily strain Baghdad's finances and raise the risk of unrest.

Iraq Is Caught in the Crossfire of Another Destabilizing War

Myanmar's then-military chief Min Aung Hlaing prepares to deliver a speech during a memorial event at the Myanmar International Convention Center in Naypyidaw on March 28, 2026, to mark the first anniversary since a 7.7-magnitude tremor killed more than 3,800 people in Myanmar.

Myanmar's transition from military to civilian governance will not lead to a meaningful transfer of power, nor will it impact the country's civil war.

Myanmar's Government Transitions to Civilian Rule in Name Only

Rastriya Swatantra Party leader Balendra Shah is sworn in as Nepal's new prime minister in Kathmandu on March 27, 2026.

Prolonged global supply chain disruptions and threats to foreign remittances linked to the war will constrain the new administration's ability to deliver on its economic promises.


New Nepalese Government's Agenda Threatened by Iran War Fallout

Japan

South Korea

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (C) answers questions during a plenary session of the House of Representatives at Parliament on March 26 in Tokyo. Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

A New Leader in Japan and an Old Feud With China

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 2, 2026

Newly elected opposition Kuomintang (KMT) leader Cheng Li-wun delivers a speech in Taipei on Nov. 1, 2025. 

The KMT's diplomatic outreach to Beijing may yield modest economic gains, but it will also hurt the party's electoral prospects, which could paradoxically raise the risk of military conflict in the coming years.

The Taiwanese Opposition's Plan To Revive Talks With China Will Likely Backfire

Europe

Hungary

 A campaign billboard featuring a portrait of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is seen in Budapest's 3rd district on March 27, 2026.

Social Issues

Hungary's April 12 parliamentary elections are primed to be the country's most competitive national vote since 2010 and may remove Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party from power.

Hungary's Upcoming Elections May Unseat Orban After 16 Years

Americas

This photo, taken in Lima in November 2024, shows Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Peruvian President Dina Boluarte attending the inauguration ceremony for the Chinese-built and operated "megaport" in the small Peruvian town of Chancay.

Environment, Science & Technology

As Washington formalizes a new hemispheric doctrine centered on security and supply chain dominance, regional governments face mounting pressure to align their defense and economic policies with U.S. geopolitical interests.

How the U.S.'s Anti-China Strategy for Latin America Could Unfold

U.S.-China Relations

Latest

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Eurasia

Ukraine

Russia

A soldier from the "Taifun" unmanned aerial vehicle unit prepares a new strike drone for flight on April 7, 2026 in Ukraine. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Although Moscow is threatening retaliation against Baltic states over supposed involvement in Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, the Kremlin will not risk a direct military confrontation with NATO.


Direct NATO-Russia Confrontation in the Baltic Unlikely, Despite Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure 

Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi answers questions at a legislative budget committee session in Tokyo on April 7, 2026, while Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (left) looks on. 

Japan's ability to sustain increased spending on defense and other strategic investments in the coming years will be constrained by sluggish economic growth, high government debt and a challenging geopolitical landscape.

Reviewing Japan's New Budget: Balancing Spending Hikes and Fiscal Reality

Iranians hold national flags as they gather in Tehran's Revolution Square after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, on April 8, 2026 in Tehran, Iran.

Upcoming negotiations face substantial hurdles as both sides present maximalist demands that could precipitate a return to high-intensity conflict.


Despite 11th-Hour U.S.-Iran Truce, Stumbling Blocks to Lasting Agreement Remain

Italy

Opposition supporters celebrate the defeat of a referendum on justice reform March 23 in Rome. The defeat exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

The defeat of a highly politicized judicial reform referendum exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

What a Failed Italian Referendum Means for the Meloni Government

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Lebanon

Yemen

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Columns

On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

Science & Technology

The FBI and the U.S. Justice Department, in conjunction with Microsoft and Lumen Technologies, successfully neutralized a yearslong campaign by the Russian advanced persistent threat (APT) group APT28 that compromised thousands of popular internet routers to redirect traffic and steal credentials, Cyberscoop reported April 7.

U.S.: Cyber Authorities Neutralize Long-Running Russian APT Threat Campaign Targeting Routers

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro said he would ​submit a new tax reform bill to Congress ‌to balance the 2026 budget, El Colombiano reported on April 7.

Colombia: Petro Seeks New Tax Reform To Fund 2026 Budget, Threatens To Bypass Congress

Kazakhstan

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev accepted an invitation to visit Seoul in September for the inaugural South Korea-Central Asia summit after meeting South Korean President Lee Jae Myung's special envoy Kang Hoon Shik, Qazinform reported April 8. 

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Accepts Invite to Visit Seoul for First South Korea-Central Asia Summit

Madagascar

Madagascar declared a two‑week nationwide state of energy emergency in response to severe fuel shortages caused by the U.S. and Israel-Iran war, BBC reported on April 8.

Madagascar: Junta Declares State of Emergency Amid Fuel Shortages Linked to Iran War

Oman

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran would grant vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz with the coordination of Iranian armed forces if U.S.-Israeli attacks against Iran stopped during the two-week ceasefire announced on April 7, Reuters reported on April 7.

Iran, U.S.: Iranian Armed Forces To Coordinate Strait of Hormuz Maritime Transit During Two-Week Ceasefire

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Ethiopia's federal government extended the term of the Tigray region's interim regional administration by one year, The Reporter reported on April 8. 

Ethiopia: Federal Government Extends Tigray Chief Administrator's Term by One Year

U.S. President Donald Trump said in an April 8 Truth Social post that any country supplying Iran with "military weapons" would be immediately subject to a 50% tariff,  without specifying the authority under which the tariff would be implemented.

U.S.: Trump Threatens Tariffs on Countries Providing Weapons to Iran

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will travel to the Gulf on April 8 to meet regional leaders and support efforts to sustain the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to a government statement.

Europe, Iran: Starmer Leads European Diplomatic Push To Sustain Hormuz Ceasefire

On April 8, the Israel Defense Forces conducted its largest wave of strikes across Lebanon since the Israel-Hezbollah war began in early March, The Times of Israel reported the same day.

Lebanon: Israel Conducts Largest Air Attack Yet Across Lebanon

Media

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. President Donald Trump announced in an April 7 post on Truth Social that he was suspending his threatened bombing of Iranian power plants and bridges by two weeks, "subject to [Iran] agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz."

U.S.: Trump Suspends Threatened Attacks on Iran for Two Weeks

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Despite 11th-Hour U.S.-Iran Truce, Stumbling Blocks to Lasting Agreement Remain

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Cyber Authorities Neutralize Long-Running Russian APT Threat Campaign Targeting Routers

Colombia: Petro Seeks New Tax Reform To Fund 2026 Budget, Threatens To Bypass Congress

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Accepts Invite to Visit Seoul for First South Korea-Central Asia Summit

Madagascar: Junta Declares State of Emergency Amid Fuel Shortages Linked to Iran War

Iran, U.S.: Iranian Armed Forces To Coordinate Strait of Hormuz Maritime Transit During Two-Week Ceasefire

Ethiopia: Federal Government Extends Tigray Chief Administrator's Term by One Year

U.S.: Trump Threatens Tariffs on Countries Providing Weapons to Iran

Europe, Iran: Starmer Leads European Diplomatic Push To Sustain Hormuz Ceasefire

Lebanon: Israel Conducts Largest Air Attack Yet Across Lebanon

U.S.: Trump Suspends Threatened Attacks on Iran for Two Weeks

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