United States

Iran

Russia

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

The U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a 30-day license authorizing the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded onto vessels on or before March 12 and currently at sea, Reuters reported on March 13.

Russia: U.S. Waiver Will Ease Near-Term Oil Tightness but Complicate Russia Sanctions Strategy

Senegal

Politics

Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko said a government review showed that British major BP's contract to develop the Grand Tortue Ahmeyim's natural gas project was unfair and "one-sided," Reuters reported on March 12.

Senegal: Sonko Lambasts BP Contract Amid Growing Resource Nationalism

Cuba

The Cuban government has engaged in talks with the United States, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel confirmed in a TV broadcast on March 13.

U.S., Cuba: Havana Confirms Talks With Washington

Middle East and North Africa

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on March 12 that Israel would create the "optimal conditions" for Iran's regime to fall, though he acknowledged that he was uncertain that Iranians would overthrow the government, the Times of Israel reported March 13. 

MENA: Netanyahu Seeks To Create "Optimal Conditions" for Iran Regime Collapse

U.S.-Iran Relations

Europe

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev met European Council President Antonio Costa in Baku to discuss energy cooperation, regional security and EU-Azerbaijan relations, according to a readout published on the Azerbaijani presidential website on March 11.

Azerbaijan, EU: Costa Visit Signals EU Bid To Bolster Azerbaijan Energy and Transit Role Amid Iran War Spillover

Mozambique

Rwanda

EU funding for the Rwandan deployment in northern Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, is set to expire in May, and discussions about a possible renewal have reportedly not yet been planned, Bloomberg reported on March 12.

Mozambique: EU To Decide on Renewal of Funding for Rwandan Deployment in Cabo Delgado

Lebanon

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that if Lebanon does not prevent Hezbollah from attacking Israel, Israel "will take the territory and do it ourselves," and Katz, along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ordered the Israeli military to prepare for an expanded operation, Reuters reported on March 12.

MENA: Israel Is Poised To Escalate Against Lebanon as Strikes on Iran Continue

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a March 12 CNBC interview that the U.S. Navy was "not ready" to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz amid Iranian attacks but that the Navy would likely be ready to do so by the end of March.

MENA: U.S. Energy Secretary Says U.S. Navy Not Ready for Strait of Hormuz Escorts

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant energy analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant energy analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Libyan Civil War

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Politics of Pipelines

_Energy

Nigeria: Obstacles to Prosperity

The Battle for Mosul

A Crude Recovery

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Russia's Internal Struggle

East African Integration

Assessments

Saudi Arabia

Pakistan

A digital illustration of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags.

Despite having a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will likely only provide the kingdom with low-level defensive and technical support, rather than direct military intervention against Iran, due to various constraints.

In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits 

Bahrain

People attend the funeral of a person killed during an Iranian drone attack on a high-rise apartment building in Bahrain's capital, Manama, on March 10, 2026.

A sharp rise in domestic sectarian issues and disruptions to key exports through the Strait of Hormuz are converging to threaten the political and economic stability of the kingdom.

Iran War Exposes Bahrain to Fiscal Risks, Sectarian Tensions

Canada

Australia

Japan

India

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney walks with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, Australia, on March 5, 2026. 

Canada's push to deepen economic and security ties with India, Australia and Japan faces constraints and may inadvertently strengthen the U.S.-led regional structure Ottawa is trying to hedge against.

The Promise and Limitations of Canada's Push to Diversify Strategic Partnerships

Volunteers clean up the rubble outside a government building in Tehran, Iran, that was destroyed by U.S. and Israeli strikes on March 4, 2026.

The war will most likely end in a tenuous ceasefire in the coming weeks, though a faster or slower truce is possible, depending on the U.S.'s political resolve to maintain its campaign against Iran.

The Iran War Will Last as Long as U.S. Political Resolve Does

Qatar

United Arab Emirates

Cargo ships and tankers are seen in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Fujairah, the United Arab Emirates, on Feb. 25, 2026. 

Although most of the Middle East's crucial oil and gas assets have so far been spared, a prolonged conflict would raise the risk of material supply disruptions and price shocks, particularly for LNG markets.

How Will the Iran War Impact the World's Oil and Gas Supplies?

A woman holds a photo of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iranians protest against attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States on Feb. 28, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. 

Global Trade

Depending on the duration of maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the escalating conflict is set to subject European economies to significant energy market volatility.

European Economic Growth Likely To Suffer From Impact of U.S. and Israel-Iran War

The U.S. and the EU flags are seen side by side on Nov. 21, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium. 

By replacing Russian gas with U.S. LNG, the EU risks becoming reliant on another systemically central external supplier at a time of growing geopolitical instability and transatlantic tension.

The Strategic Risks of Europe's Pivot to U.S. LNG

Mexico

American Airlines planes sit on the tarmac at Jose Marti International Airport in Havana on Feb. 9, 2026. 

Facing imminent economic collapse and the loss of key allies, the Cuban government will likely yield to U.S. demands for market liberalization to avoid a total breakdown of state authority while attempting to preserve political control.

Economic Concessions to U.S. Offer Path for Regime Survival in Cuba

Snapshots

Turkey

A digital satellite illustration shows Europe at night.

The EU enlargement chief's upcoming visit to Turkey signals an attempt to balance cautious engagement with clear strategic interests, rather than an imminent breakthrough on the country's stalled accession process.

Understanding the EU's Strategic Reengagement With Turkey

Tanzania

A Rwandan policeman (R) and a Rwandan soldier (L) guard TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project in Cabo Delgado province, Mozambique, on Sept. 29, 2022.

Mozambique's LNG projects will likely progress in 2026 amid a safer security environment, but the economic windfall remains years away.

Mozambique's LNG Sector Turns a Corner Amid Megaproject Reboot

A 3D rendering of the Canadian, U.S. and Mexican flags.

The White House is expected to utilize threats of scrapping the trilateral pact in favor of bilateral agreements as a high-stakes negotiating tactic, creating a period of intense business uncertainty and market volatility.

The Outlook for USMCA Renegotiation in 2026

Media

Venezuela

China

Ukraine

Forecast Webcast

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

Energy

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia: U.S. Waiver Will Ease Near-Term Oil Tightness but Complicate Russia Sanctions Strategy

Senegal: Sonko Lambasts BP Contract Amid Growing Resource Nationalism

U.S., Cuba: Havana Confirms Talks With Washington

MENA: Netanyahu Seeks To Create "Optimal Conditions" for Iran Regime Collapse

Azerbaijan, EU: Costa Visit Signals EU Bid To Bolster Azerbaijan Energy and Transit Role Amid Iran War Spillover

Mozambique: EU To Decide on Renewal of Funding for Rwandan Deployment in Cabo Delgado

MENA: Israel Is Poised To Escalate Against Lebanon as Strikes on Iran Continue

MENA: U.S. Energy Secretary Says U.S. Navy Not Ready for Strait of Hormuz Escorts

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