Assessments

Eritrea

Ethiopia

A Tigrayan flag waves at the entrance of a hospital in Tigray's regional capital, Mekele, on Oct. 10, 2024. 

Military & Security

Politics

The ruling TPLF's apparent rapprochement with Eritrea and the rise of anti-TPLF groups are raising the risk of an Ethiopian-Eritrean proxy conflict in Tigray that could eventually spur a larger military escalation.

Ethiopia's Tigray Region Faces a Brewing Storm Amid Shifting Alliances

United States

Israel

Syria

Israeli military vehicles drive along the border fence into Israel, near the town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, on July 17, 2025.

Economics

While the two countries may engage in limited security cooperation, Israel's continued military interventions in Syria and the lack of U.S. economic pressure on Damascus will make full normalization nearly impossible.

Despite Recent Talks, Syria-Israel Normalization Remains Highly Unlikely

Palestinian Territories

China

Russia

India

U.S. President Donald Trump (R) looks at Russia's President Vladimir Putin on Nov. 30, 2018, during the G20 Leaders' Summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to meet in the coming days.

Energy

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Trump-Putin Summit, the Deadline for a U.S.-China Tariff Pause

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

An oil tanker train passes near a refinery in Guwahati, India, on March 30, 2023. 

Global Trade

For now, India will likely keep importing cheap Russian oil in the hopes it can soon secure tariff relief, either directly via a U.S. trade deal or indirectly via a breakthrough in U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine.

Will Trump's Tariffs Deter India From Buying Russian Oil?

A 3D modeled town in the shape of the Chinese flag.

Trade tensions will exacerbate China's excess savings problems, but the economic situation will remain manageable

Beijing Grapples With Deflation, Overinvestment as Tariff Pressures Mount

Lebanon

Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem speaks from a stage surrounded by flags in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, on July 6, 2025. 

Lebanon's new push to disarm Hezbollah will prove challenging amid U.S. pressure, Israel's military assertiveness and Hezbollah's hardening stance, potentially leading to government instability and increased violence.

Can Lebanon Navigate the Minefield of Disarming Hezbollah?

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 7, 2025

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Supporters of Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik watch him speak in Banja Luka, Republika Srpska, on Feb. 26, 2025. 

Republika Srpska's separatist leader will likely defy a ruling to step down, causing institutional paralysis and Western backlash, but early elections or a unilateral declaration of independence are also possible.

The Potential Outcomes of Bosnia's Emerging Political Crisis

Bolivia

Bolivia's presidential candidates participate in a presidential debate in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, on Aug. 1, 2025.

Bolivia heads toward a political shift as voters prepare to oust the ruling left-wing MAS party amid economic woes, with right-wing candidates leading the polls ahead of pivotal August elections.

Economic Crisis Fuels Political Shakeup in Bolivia

Turkey

The new flag of Syria's interim government.

Parliamentary elections in September will cement Syrian leaders' power at the expense of many minority groups, deepening national fragmentation and heightening risks of violent unrest, particularly amid Israeli military intervention.

In Syria, Parliamentary Elections Will Deepen Political and Sectarian Divides

Israeli troops are seen deployed at the border with the Gaza Strip on July 23, 2025.

Reoccupying the Strip would be expensive and stir controversy at home and abroad, making the strategy politically difficult to sustain in the likely case that a new Israeli government is elected next year. 

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