Assessments

Colombia

Supporters of Colombian presidential candidate Ivan Cepeda wave flags ahead of his closing campaign rally in Barranquilla, Colombia, on May 24, 2026.

Economics

Energy

Global Elections

Military & Security

Politics

A left-wing victory would portend increased social spending and policy gridlock, a far-right win would portend austerity and decree-based governance, and a center-right win would foster market-friendly policies and stability.

Colombia's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Ukraine

Russia

Technicians work at the main blast furnace at the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works on Feb. 12, 2024 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Part two of this report examines how either a comprehensive peace agreement or a severe escalation of the war would affect Ukraine's investment climate.



Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 2

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 28, 2026

Ethiopia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed delivers remarks during the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba on Sept. 9, 2025.

Prime Minister Abiy will likely be reelected without sustained unrest, but escalating tensions in Tigray could still fuel a worsening security crisis in the Amhara and/or Oromia regions in a less-likely, higher-impact scenario.

Previewing Ethiopia's General Elections

An employee assembles a long-range drone in a workshop of the Fire Point company, which manufactures FP-1 deep-strike drones and FP-2 strike drones, Jan. 29 in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

This two-part report outlines how the trajectory of the war with Russia will act as the ultimate determinant of capital allocation and economic recovery in Ukraine.

Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 1

Argentina

Bolivia

Chile

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Science & Technology

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile are poised to benefit from the expected rise in lithium demand in the coming years, but they are unlikely to see a substantial surge in wealth without a more monumental market change.

The Outlook for the Lithium Triangle Amid the Global Energy Transition, Part 2

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile have had varying degrees of success in developing their lithium production capacity, with Chile achieving the greatest success of the three, and Bolivia lagging behind.

The Outlook for the Lithium Triangle Amid the Global Energy Transition, Part 1

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Japan

Philippines

Armenia

Kazakhstan

India

A cargo ship anchored May 16 in the Strait of Hormuz near Larak Island, Iran. Major gaps in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program persist, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will remain fragile over the next week.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Rubio Visits India, a Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Cuba

Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche (center) speaks during a news conference announcing the indictment of former Cuban president Raul Castro, at the Freedom Tower in Miami, Florida, on May 20, 2026.

Recent U.S. escalations against Cuba are creating a pretext for kinetic action, most likely a targeted operation to capture key officials, though an airstrike campaign and/or a ground deployment also remain possible.

Assessing the Potential for U.S. Military Action in Cuba

Greenland

Denmark

U.S. special envoy to Greenland, Republican Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry (center right), and Greenlandic mason and Trump supporter Jorgen Boassen (center left) are pictured in Nuuk, Greenland, on May 20, 2026, on the sidelines of the Future Greenland business fair. 

Ongoing talks with Greenland and Denmark will likely yield a deal that meets most U.S. objectives without requiring formal annexation, though a broader transatlantic crisis remains possible if negotiations collapse.

Can the U.S. Reach a Compromise on Greenland That Averts a Transatlantic Crisis?

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 21, 2026

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