Assessments

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Worsening tensions over sea access and Eritrea's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government raise the risk of intensifying proxy clashes that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation.

Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026

United States

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Yemen

Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

If effective, the laser air defense system will significantly reduce the cost of intercepting short-range aerial threats and bolster Israel's multilayered protection against aerial attacks.


The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 11, 2025

Middle East and North Africa

Jordanian police close the entrance of a Muslim Brotherhood headquarters on April 23, 2025, in Amman, Jordan.

While the White House has initiated a review process to label the Muslim Brotherhood a Foreign Terrorist Organization, it is unlikely to result in a comprehensive ban on the group.

U.S. Unlikely To Broadly Designate Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization

China

Philippines

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 

A widespread corruption scandal is threatening to cause political instability in the Philippines, which could lead to policy paralysis and weaken the Philippines' posture against China.

A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines

Benin

Nigeria

France

A photo taken on Dec. 8, 2025, shows an armored vehicle at the entrance of a blocked road in Cotonou, Benin, near the headquarters of the state broadcaster Benin TV.

The coup attempt will increase political and security risks ahead of Benin's 2026 elections, while the swift, Nigeria-led ECOWAS intervention suggests Abuja is assuming a more assertive regional role with tacit French backing following Paris's troop drawdown.

Benin's Foiled Coup Signals Strengthening Franco-Nigerian Coordination in West Africa

Cambodia

Thailand

A Thai soldier points out an area on a map near the Cambodian border during a press visit on Aug. 16, 2025, in Sisaket, Thailand. 

Renewed fighting along the border could surpass the July clashes in scale, and while U.S. pressure will likely compel both countries to return to the ceasefire, the risk of future flare-ups will remain high.

Latest Thailand-Cambodia Clashes Will Test U.S. Appetite for Intervention

Palestinian Hamas militants stand guard as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp, in the northern Gaza Strip, on Dec. 1, 2025.

The shift toward a low-intensity conflict in the Gaza Strip will likely enable Israel to keep pressuring Hamas to disarm without triggering significant backlash or a resumption of Houthi maritime attacks.

Israel Moves Toward a De Facto Partition of Gaza

Tanzania

Hong Kong SAR, China

Europe

Ukraine

Protesters help an injured demonstrator near burning barricades amid clashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on Oct. 29, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Unrest in Tanzania, an EU Summit in Ukraine

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 4, 2025

A photograph taken from the Israeli side of the border with southern Lebanon shows U.N. peacekeepers clearing landmines on Nov. 19, 2025. 

Rare direct talks between the neighboring adversaries will probably continue despite Hezbollah's objections, but Israel's likely refusal to offer meaningful concessions will sustain a high risk of renewed conflict in the coming months.

Lebanon-Israel Talks Are Unlikely To Pave the Way for Peace

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