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Hamas released the 20 remaining living Israeli hostages still held in Gaza and Israel began to release around 2,000 Palestinian prisoners in return, Reuters reported Oct. 13.

U.S., Israel, Palestinian Territories: Gaza Ceasefire Holds as Hamas Releases Remaining Living Israeli Hostages

Egypt

Qatar

Turkey

Around 200 U.S. troops will oversee the implementation of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire, although reports conflict over whether these troops will be stationed in Egypt or Israel, the BBC reported Oct. 10.

US, Israel, Palestinian Territories: 200 U.S. Troops To Monitor Gaza Ceasefire

Indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel began in Egypt, with some, including Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, expressing optimism about the progress of discussions, The Guardian reported on Oct. 6. 

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Latest Ceasefire Negotiations Begin Ahead of Two-Year Gaza War Anniversary

Hamas agreed to certain parts of the U.S.-backed proposal to end the war with Israel in Gaza, including the release of all Israeli hostages and the exchange of prisoners, as well as the formation of a post-Hamas government for Gaza, BBC reported on Oct. 3. 

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Announces Partial Agreement to U.S.-Backed Peace Proposal

Sources close to the Israel-Hamas negotiation process said the Palestinian militant group was inclined to agree with the current U.S.-backed 21-point ceasefire proposal, and Hamas publicly said it was "studying" the plan, CBS News reported on Sept. 30.

Israel, Gaza: Hamas To 'Study' U.S.-Backed Ceasefire Proposal

Jordan

Two Israelis were killed when a reported aid worker ambushed them at the Allenby Bridge Crossing between Jordan and the West Bank, The Times of Israel reported on Sept. 18, citing the Israeli military.

Israel, Gaza: Aid Worker Reportedly Kills Two Israelis at Allenby Bridge Crossing

A spokesperson for the Israeli military announced that the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, had launched a ground offensive in Gaza City, The New York Times reported on Sept. 16.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel Launches Ground Operations in Gaza City

A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, called for all residents of Gaza City to evacuate south to a newly established humanitarian area in Al-Mawasi, BBC reported on Sept. 9.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel Issues Complete Gaza City Evacuation Order

Assessments

Cameroon

Japan

France

Palestinians on Oct. 10 on Al-Rashid road headed toward Gaza City. U.S. President Donald Trump said he might visit the Middle East just as 20 hostages are meant to be released by Hamas after surviving two years in captivity as the White House pushes for the solidification of a frail ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Tries To Solidify the Gaza Ceasefire, a Presidential Vote in Cameroon

Media

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

What should companies be on the lookout for through the end of 2025 and beyond?

Essential Geopolitics: Trends From RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Snapshots

People react at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv on Oct. 9, 2025, following news of a new Gaza ceasefire deal.

Violence in Gaza will almost certainly decrease as both Israel and Hamas are pressured to comply with the first phase of the ceasefire, keeping the truce intact in the coming days and possibly weeks.

After Two Years of War, a Permanent Gaza Ceasefire?

Columns

On Geopolitics

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

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Asia-Pacific

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Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Australia

United Kingdom

Dignitaries attend a U.N. Security Council meeting on the situation in the Middle East, including the question of Palestinian statehood, during the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 23, 2025, in New York City. 

Western countries' growing recognition of Palestinian statehood is largely symbolic and will likely galvanize Israel's push for West Bank annexation, risking further Israeli diplomatic isolation abroad and sporadic violence at home.

The West's Growing Support for Palestinian Statehood Will Have Limited Concrete Impacts

Egyptian army vehicles are deployed along the border with the Gaza Strip on July 4, 2024, in the north Sinai Peninsula. 

Energy

While an all-out war remains improbable, Egypt's military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula will increase the risk of sporadic border incidents and could prompt Israel to suspend a major energy deal with Cairo.

Is an Israel-Egypt Conflict on the Horizon?

Guyana

Ukraine

Russia

The President of the 80th session of the U.N. General Assembly and former German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock speaks during a General Assembly meeting to vote on a two-state solution to the Palestinian question on Sept. 12 at the United Nations in New York. Countries including Australia, Canada, France and the United Kingdom will likely formally recognize Palestinian statehood over the next several days at the assembly.

The Weekly Rundown: Western Countries Recognize Palestine, the EU Discusses a 'Drone Wall'

Bahrain

Iran

Kuwait

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani chairing a preparatory meeting in Doha on Sept. 14, 2025, ahead of an Arab Islamic summit.

The Sept. 9 strike on Qatar has amplified doubts among Gulf states about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees and Washington's ability to restrain its regional allies.

Israeli Strike on Qatar Prompts GCC States To Question Future of Regional Security

Iraq

Lebanon

Morocco

Syria

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Yemen

A picture taken from a distance shows the damaged building (L) in the Qatari compound housing members of Hamas' political bureau on Sept. 10, 2025. Israel targeted the building the previous day in a strike in Qatar's capital, Doha. 

Israel's Sept. 9 airstrikes in Qatar will likely harden the stances of Iranian-backed groups, keep normalization with Saudi Arabia off the table and drive more assertive postures from other regional states.

The Regional Implications of Israel's Strikes in Qatar

Israel-Hamas Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Israel, Palestinian Territories: Gaza Ceasefire Holds as Hamas Releases Remaining Living Israeli Hostages

US, Israel, Palestinian Territories: 200 U.S. Troops To Monitor Gaza Ceasefire

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Latest Ceasefire Negotiations Begin Ahead of Two-Year Gaza War Anniversary

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Announces Partial Agreement to U.S.-Backed Peace Proposal

Israel, Gaza: Hamas To 'Study' U.S.-Backed Ceasefire Proposal

Israel, Gaza: Aid Worker Reportedly Kills Two Israelis at Allenby Bridge Crossing

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel Launches Ground Operations in Gaza City

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israel Issues Complete Gaza City Evacuation Order

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