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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said in an Aug. 3 interview with Politico that Kyiv hoped refinery strikes and Western sanctions would force Russia to end the war this fall, but he warned that Moscow would otherwise resume large-scale attacks on Ukraine's energy, water and sewage infrastructure.

Ukraine, Russia: Energy Deficit Will Deepen Ukraine's Winter Vulnerability

United States

North Korea

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said preliminary evidence indicated that Russia used a North Korean ballistic missile to strike a home in Radushne, near Kryvyi Rih, killing two parents and three of their children, Reuters reported on July 30.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia's Use of North Korean Missiles Deepens Ukraine's Air Defense Crisis

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met at the White House and discussed a U.S. license allowing Ukraine to produce Patriot interceptor missiles, other defense proposals and efforts to reinvigorate diplomacy, RBC-Ukraine reported on July 28, citing Zelensky's statement after the meeting.

Ukraine, U.S.: Defense Cooperation Gains Momentum as Trump, Zelensky Meet

Economics

Russian President Vladimir Putin told outgoing State Duma lawmakers that Russia would achieve its objectives in Ukraine and "do everything for victory," TASS reported on July 27.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin's Victory Pledge Raises Postelection Manpower Expansion Risk

A Russian ballistic missile struck a private training ground in the Kyiv region's Bucha district during a defense industry exhibition, killing at least 10 people and injuring over 100 others, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 24.

Ukraine, Russia: Russia Strikes Defense Exhibition Near Kyiv in Daylight

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held a 35-minute meeting on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' ministerial gathering in Manila, Philippines, The Guardian reported on July 23.

U.S., Russia, Ukraine: Rubio-Lavrov Meeting in Manila Predictably Yields No Breakthrough

Ukrainian drones struck Wildberries warehouses in Krasnodar and Nevinnomyssk, injuring several workers and extending a series of attacks on Russia's largest online retailer, Reuters reported on July 22. 

Russia, Ukraine: Strikes on Russian Online Retailer Drag Russia's Consumer Economy Into the War

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a fresh round of meetings with top military commanders amid media reports that he was considering dismissing Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, in the face of protests demanding Syrskyi's removal and broader military reform, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 20.

Ukraine: Zelensky Meets His Top Brass, Denying His Army Chief Is Out

Snapshots

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (center) chats with U.S. senators before heading to a closed-door meeting at the U.S. Capitol on July 28, 2026. 

If enacted, the proposed bill would give Trump broad new authority to impose tariffs on major Russian oil buyers, but selective enforcement means it would unlikely compel Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

New U.S. Sanctions Bill Unlikely To Impact Russia's Oil Exports or War Strategy

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Peru

Iran

Israel

United Kingdom

A couple rides past Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles displayed at Azadi Square in Tehran on July 24.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Likely U.S. Escalation in Iran, Zelensky Travels to Washington

U.S.-Iran Relations

Ukrainian servicemen maintain a 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region on May 27 in Pokrovsk, Ukraine.

With grinding ground offensives yielding minimal gains at a severe human cost, Moscow is likely to escalate devastating aerial strikes designed to cripple critical infrastructure and force Kyiv into concessions.


What the Fall of Kostiantynivka Would Mean for the Ukraine War 

People gather for a second consecutive day of protests in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 17, 2026, following the controversial dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelensky's potentially imminent decision to dismiss the army chief under mounting public pressure would weaken his authority, while prolonged turmoil could further strain Ukraine's war effort.

Defense Minister's Ouster Plunges Ukraine Into Biggest Wartime Political Crisis Yet

Europe

Albania

Montenegro

Moldova

A man checks the flags of EU countries in 2004. 

Recent negotiations saw Montenegro and Albania pushed into advanced legislative alignment while Brussels expanded accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.


The Progress, Prospects and Risks of EU Enlargement

Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026, outside of Moscow, Russia.

Russia will retain the ability to produce and export most of its oil, but sustained Ukrainian strikes will erode its refining capacity, exacerbate domestic fuel shortages and raise the risk of deeper production cuts.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

Turkey

Billboards are seen ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, on June 26, 2026.

Recent U.S. military drawdowns in Germany and threatened reductions in Italy and Spain underscore the stakes of the summit on July 7-8.

Transatlantic Tensions Set To Dominate NATO Summit in Ankara

Media

Cuba

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Third-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Belarus

An officer of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stands on a destroyed bridge over the Dnipro River, which forms the state border between Ukraine and Belarus, on June 1, 2026.

The threat of Ukrainian retaliatory strikes and Belarus's limited offensive capabilities will likely keep Minsk from directly entering the conflict, but the country will remain a critical base for Russian military pressure against Ukraine and NATO.

Despite Russian Pressure, Belarus Remains Unlikely to Join the Ukraine War

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Social Issues

A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Botswana

Lesotho

Namibia

South Africa

Eswatini

Colombia

Vessels at anchorage June 18 in Bandar Abbas, Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 is highly likely to remain in effect over the coming week, and negotiations toward a final deal will begin.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Iranian Talks, Colombia's Presidential Runoff

A Ukrainian flag flies in Riga, Latvia, on May 18, 2026.

Even a sustainable peace settlement would leave Kyiv grappling with a $600 billion reconstruction bill, demanding high levels of foreign direct investment and stringent governance reforms.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, Russia: Energy Deficit Will Deepen Ukraine's Winter Vulnerability

Russia, Ukraine: Russia's Use of North Korean Missiles Deepens Ukraine's Air Defense Crisis

Ukraine, U.S.: Defense Cooperation Gains Momentum as Trump, Zelensky Meet

Russia, Ukraine: Putin's Victory Pledge Raises Postelection Manpower Expansion Risk

Ukraine, Russia: Russia Strikes Defense Exhibition Near Kyiv in Daylight

U.S., Russia, Ukraine: Rubio-Lavrov Meeting in Manila Predictably Yields No Breakthrough

Russia, Ukraine: Strikes on Russian Online Retailer Drag Russia's Consumer Economy Into the War

Ukraine: Zelensky Meets His Top Brass, Denying His Army Chief Is Out

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