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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the European Union was working on a new package of sanctions against Russia that would target the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, more vessels linked to Russia's shadow oil tanker fleet, and the country's financial sector, as well as further reduce the oil price cap, Reuters reported on May 16.

EU, Russia: Von der Leyen Floats New EU Sanctions on Russia, Including on Nord Stream Pipelines

Military & Security

The first direct meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations since March 2022 took place in Istanbul, Turkey, Reuters reported on May 16.

Russia, Ukraine: Bilateral Meeting Ends With No Immediate Announcements

Germany

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Poland

EU ambassadors approved a new package of sanctions on Russia, the 17th since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with measures including visa bans and asset freezes on senior Russian officials, export bans on dual-use chemicals and restrictions targeting dozens of companies accused of sanctions evasion, Politico reported May 14. 

EU, Russia: EU Ambassadors Approve 17th Package of Sanctions Against Russia

Belgium

Hungary

The European Commission is exploring legal and financial measures to bypass potential Hungarian vetoes on key decisions related to Ukraine's EU accession and sanctions against Russia, according to reports by Bloomberg and the Financial Times on May 13. 


EU, Hungary, Russia, Ukraine: Brussels Weighs Measures to Bypass Hungary's Vetoes on Russia Sanctions 

On May 8, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that "the US calls for, ideally, a 30-day unconditional ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, adding that "if the ceasefire is not respected, the US and its partners will impose further sanctions."

U.S., Russia: Trump Insists on Ceasefire, Suggests Sanctions Against Russia

At midnight on May 8, the Russian government announced the beginning of a 72-hour ceasefire in its war with Ukraine to coincide with Victory Day, which most of the West commemorates on May 8 but Russia celebrates on May 9. 

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Announces Start of V-Day Ceasefire, Ukraine Denounces Violations

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was still waiting to hear back from Kyiv regarding Russia's proposal for a three-day ceasefire from May 8-10, while also saying Russia would not agree to an immediate 30-day ceasefire proposed by Ukraine until "nuances" are addressed, The Moscow Times reported on April 29.

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Pushes Back on Ukraine's Proposal for Immediate Ceasefire

The Kremlin announced on April 28 that it will implement a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine from May 8 to May 10 to observe the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Announces Three-Day Ceasefire in May Amid Pressure From White House

Assessments

This combination of pictures shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) during a press conference in Berlin on June 11, 2024, and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow on March 18, 2025.

While direct talks mark a notable development in the peace process, Moscow will not make meaningful concessions unless it faces bolder action from the West (particularly the U.S.), like asset seizures and increased military aid to Ukraine.

Russia Agrees To Hold Talks With Ukraine Amid U.S. Pressure, but Peace Will Remain Elusive

Supporters of the PiS party demonstrate April 12 in Warsaw, Poland. Poland will hold a presidential election May 18 and runoff June 1 if no candidate obtains more than 50% in the first round.

Social Issues

The outcome of Poland's election will determine whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist government will coexist with a cooperative president or continue to face institutional constraints from an ideologically opposed president.

Poland's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Columns

On Geopolitics

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Drag-line excavator mines rare earth materials on Ukrainian soil on Feb. 25, 2025, in the Zhytomyr region of Ukraine. 

A new U.S.-Ukraine economic deal offers Washington a long-term stake in Ukraine's critical resources -- and a potential lever in ceasefire diplomacy.

New Strategic Pact Gives U.S. Stake in Ukraine's Economic Future

Snapshots

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

Iran

Workers at a quarry Feb. 26, 2025 in the Zhytomyr region of Ukraine.

Cyber

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Von der Leyen Meets Starmer, a U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal

U.S.-Iran Relations

South Africa

Israel

China

A list of countries facing reciprocal tariffs on display April 2 at the White House.

Global Trade

The Weekly Rundown: The Escalating Global Trade War, South Africa's Coalition Government on the Brink

U.S.-China Relations

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Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Second-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Intensifying trade wars, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, continued volatility in the Middle East and consequential elections in key countries will shape the quarter.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Brazil

Lebanon

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Vietnam

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a joint press conference Feb. 16 at the prime minister's office in Jerusalem. Senior Israeli officials from the security and intelligence ministries will visit the United States to discuss Iran's nuclear program and Israeli border demarcation talks with Lebanon.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Israel Coordinate on Iran, the U.K. Chancellor Seeks Fiscal Discipline

Spain

Spanish soldiers sit at tables at a makeshift military base in Valencia, eastern Spain, on Nov. 12, 2024, following deadly floods in the region.

Domestic political constraints will impede Madrid's ability to expand its defense budget, which will expose it to U.S. retaliation and limit Spanish participation in any European deployment to Ukraine.

Despite Recent Pledges, Spain Will Struggle To Boost Military Spending

While a ceasefire appears increasingly likely, Russia will likely delay a deal to secure more concessions related to Western military support, a potential peacekeeping force in Ukraine, and Kyiv's NATO aspirations.

How Will Russia Respond to the U.S.-Proposed Ceasefire in Ukraine?

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

EU, Russia: Von der Leyen Floats New EU Sanctions on Russia, Including on Nord Stream Pipelines

Russia, Ukraine: Bilateral Meeting Ends With No Immediate Announcements

EU, Russia: EU Ambassadors Approve 17th Package of Sanctions Against Russia

EU, Hungary, Russia, Ukraine: Brussels Weighs Measures to Bypass Hungary's Vetoes on Russia Sanctions

U.S., Russia: Trump Insists on Ceasefire, Suggests Sanctions Against Russia

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Announces Start of V-Day Ceasefire, Ukraine Denounces Violations

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Pushes Back on Ukraine's Proposal for Immediate Ceasefire

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Announces Three-Day Ceasefire in May Amid Pressure From White House

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