United States

Iran

Cyber

Military & Security

Politics

On Jan. 13, U.S. President Donald Trump will be briefed on kinetic and non-kinetic options -- including targeted strikes, cyberattacks, information operations and, least escalatory, announcing military movements like carrier deployments -- regarding a response to Iran's ongoing crackdown on protesters, ABC News reported on Jan. 12.

Iran, U.S.: Trump To Be Briefed on Iran Options on Jan. 13

U.S.-Iran Relations

China

The China-backed cyber threat actor Salt Typhoon has accessed email systems of congressional staff on several committees of the U.S. House of Representatives, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 7.

U.S., China: Salt Typhoon Breached Congressional Committee Staff Emails

U.S.-China Relations

Europe

Estonia

Ukraine

Russia

Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service Director General Kaupo Rosin said in an interview with ERR on Dec. 29 that there is currently no indication Russia intends to attack the Baltic states or NATO and that Moscow appears to be scaling back provocations to avoid escalation.

Europe, Russia: Estonian Intelligence Sees No Immediate Russian Attack Risk to Baltics

Venezuela

Energy

Venezuelan state-owned oil company PDVSA claimed it suffered a cyberattack orchestrated by the United States and conspirators in a statement published on Dec. 15, Reuters reported the same day.

Venezuela: State Oil Company Suffers Cyberattack, Accuses U.S.

Environment, Science & Technology

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order late on Dec. 11 that seeks to curb state-level artificial intelligence laws as part of the administration's larger deregulation push for the sector, The Washington Post reported the same day. 

U.S.: Trump Signs Executive Order Aiming To Curb State AI Laws

Economics

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently added artificial intelligence processors from Huawei, Cambricon and other Chinese companies to its government-approved list of suppliers, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 9.

China: Beijing Adds Domestic AI Chips to Government-Approved Supplier List

India

India's government withdrew its mandate requiring smartphone makers to preload a state-run cybersecurity app on new devices, Reuters reported on Dec. 3.

India: Facing Backlash, Government Withdraws Cybersecurity App Requirement

India's telecommunications ministry directed smartphone manufacturers to preload all new devices with the state-run cybersecurity app Sanchar Saathi, which users would be unable to remove, AP reported on Dec. 2. 

India: Government Directs Smartphone Makers To Preload State-Run Cybersecurity App

<p>Individuals, companies, governments and militaries alike all depend on computers. And as is so often the case, these dependencies create vulnerabilities that have made cybersecurity all the more important as proficiencies in cyber warfare and cyber crime improve. That technology constantly improves only adds to the problem of staying safe in the internet age. How governments and their constituents attune themselves to this brave new world will ultimately shape their relationship with the internet &mdash; and with each other.</p>

That technology constantly improves only adds to the problem of staying safe in the internet age.

Americas

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Eurasia

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Security

Modernizing China’s Military

Globalization

Echoes of the Cold War

China in Transition

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Israel

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Norway

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Global Trade

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Sub-Saharan Africa

Israel-Hamas Conflict

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

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Canada

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Timor-Leste

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South Korea

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A container ship arrives Oct. 10 at the Port of Oakland, California. In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Media

Podcasts

How could advancements in AI increase the threat of state-sponsored cyber activity?

Essential Geopolitics: The Role of AI in State-Sponsored Cyber Espionage Campaigns

While countries will likely increasingly pursue trade deals with digital clauses, the slow pace of regulatory development, coupled with a global tendency toward protectionism, will impede the push toward building out more streamlined digital economy agreements.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Role of Digital Trade in Modern Free Trade Agreements

Snapshots

Flag of China on a red-painted printed circuit board.

Advancements in China's semiconductor sector are reducing Chinese companies' reliance on foreign technology, enabling them to push back more firmly against Western hegemony.

China's Chip Advances Increase Beijing's Leverage in Talks With the U.S.

From left to right, Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin listen as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting on Aug. 26, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

As federal agencies tasked with countering foreign threats are defunded and social media giants relax their rules, the U.S. information space is becoming significantly more vulnerable to state-sponsored manipulation.

U.S. Digital Defenses Weaken, Opening the Door for Nation-State Operations

Essential Geopolitics: What Gabbard's ODNI Cuts Mean for Corporate Security

The Geopolitics of Trade

Protectionist and security-driven data regulations are impeding digital and physical trade, potentially slowing global economic growth and innovation.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Diverging Digital Governance Threatens Data Flows

U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to sign the GENIUS Act in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on July 18, 2025. 

The United States has passed its first major federal cryptocurrency law, boosting institutional interest, but broader public adoption remains constrained by regulatory gaps and ongoing risks.

Cryptocurrency Legislation Advances, Sets New Course for U.S. Cryptocurrency Landscape

A digital illustration shows a digital human head overlaying the EU flag.

Growing internal and U.S. pressure will likely force Brussels to delay or amend its landmark AI law, fueling short-term regulatory uncertainty that could hinder the technology's development in Europe.

The Fate of the EU's Ambitious AI Act

Cyber

SITUATION REPORTS

Iran, U.S.: Trump To Be Briefed on Iran Options on Jan. 13

U.S., China: Salt Typhoon Breached Congressional Committee Staff Emails

Europe, Russia: Estonian Intelligence Sees No Immediate Russian Attack Risk to Baltics

Venezuela: State Oil Company Suffers Cyberattack, Accuses U.S.

U.S.: Trump Signs Executive Order Aiming To Curb State AI Laws

China: Beijing Adds Domestic AI Chips to Government-Approved Supplier List

India: Facing Backlash, Government Withdraws Cybersecurity App Requirement

India: Government Directs Smartphone Makers To Preload State-Run Cybersecurity App

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