United States

Iran

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Russia

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met in Washington and released the TRIPP implementation framework outlining plans to grant a U.S.-majority consortium exclusive rights to develop a transit corridor linking Azerbaijan to its Naxcivan exclave through southern Armenia, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 13. 

Armenia, U.S.: TRIPP Framework Puts American Capital at the Heart of South Caucasus Geopolitics

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi met with Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Suzuki Shunichi and the heads of her coalition partner, Japan Innovation Party, on Jan. 14 and informed them of her intent to dissolve the Diet on Jan. 23 and call snap elections, with a press conference with more details set for Jan. 19.

Japan: Takaichi To Call Risky Snap Elections, Could Delay Budget

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff announced that the second phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire plan in Gaza would begin, saying it would entail the demilitarization, reconstruction and post-Hamas governance of the strip, Al Jazeera reported on Jan. 14. 

Israel, Gaza: Phase Two of Gaza Ceasefire To Begin, but Questions on Implementation Remain

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Pakistan's Ministry of Commerce is reviewing waiver requests to allow Afghan importers to reexport over 6,500 containers currently stranded at two ports in Karachi, Pakistan, and incurring demurrage fees due to the protracted closure of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, Dawn reported on Jan. 14. 

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Closure Prompts Requests for Reexport of Stranded Cargo

Venezuela

Energy

Venezuela's state-owned company Petroleos de Venezuela, better known as PDVSA, started reversing oil production cuts, while Washington has filed for court warrants to seize more sanctioned tankers shipping Venezuelan oil, Reuters reported on Jan. 13. 

U.S., Venezuela: PDVSA Resumes Oil Production Amid Washington's Efforts To Seize More Tankers

Nigeria

United Arab Emirates

Environment, Science & Technology

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu unveiled plans to mobilize $2 billion for the country's National Climate Change Fund and $500 million for climate-resilient infrastructure at the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week summit, Reuters reported on Jan. 13.

Nigeria: President Tinubu Unveils $2B Climate Fund, Economic Partnership With Abu Dhabi

China

Indonesia

The United States is demanding Indonesia purchase U.S.-made maritime surveillance drones and use them to publicly harden its South China Sea and Natuna Sea posture vis-a-vis China as conditions for cutting threatened tariffs from 32% to 19%, according to an Indonesian government document cited by The Straits Times on Jan. 14.

Indonesia, U.S.: Washington's Security Demands Complicate Trade Deal Finalization

Europe

Ukraine

The European Commission on Jan. 14 adopted legislative proposals to secure financial support for Ukraine in 2026-27, including a 90 billion euro ($105 billion) loan allocating 60 billion euros for military assistance and 30 billion euros for budget support, the commission said the same day. 

EU, Ukraine: Brussels Advances Ukraine Support Package Focused on Military Procurement From EU

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant politics analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant politics analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

The Post-Apartheid Era Ends

Venezuela's Unraveling

The Saudi Survival Strategy

The Kurdish Struggle

Israel's Survival Strategy

Turkey's Resurgence

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

Brexit

Old Leaders in a New Africa

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The Pulse of Political Islam

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Russia's Internal Struggle

China in Transition

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

Taiwan

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

Global Trade

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

U.S.-China Relations

Mozambique

Tanzania

A column of Tanzanian soldiers drives past electoral posters of incumbent Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Zanzibar President Hussein Ali Mwinyi in Stone Town on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The Tanzanian government's harsh repression of opposition voices will maintain risks of civil unrest and siphon security forces away from outer regions, creating power vacuums in the south for jihadists to exploit.

Ongoing Repression in Tanzania Shows No Signs of Letting Up

People gather during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 8, 2026. 

The severity of Iran's crackdown on protesters makes it highly likely that Trump will authorize some form of action (e.g., sanctions, cyberattacks or military strikes), with Tehran likely to respond proportionally unless the regime's survival is threatened.

The Risks and Implications of a U.S. Attack Against Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

Greenland

The flag of Greenland, known locally as "Erfalasorput," flies next to the Church of Our Saviour on March 30, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland. 

The United States' aim to acquire Greenland risks triggering a NATO crisis if U.S. and European negotiators fail to reach a settlement.

Europe Weighs Responses to U.S. Pressure Over Greenland

Iraq

Lebanon

Yemen

A stock image shows the silhouettes of soldiers.

Emboldened by its recent capture of Venezuela's Maduro, the White House will likely seek to kill and potentially abduct more Middle Eastern extremists in the coming year, but pursuing high-profile targets like Iranian leaders will carry significant risks.

Potential Targets for U.S. Assassination and Abduction Operations in the Middle East

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Norway

India

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Benin

Uganda

Canada

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Supporters of National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate and opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, gather to attend a campaign rally in Kampala, on Nov. 24, 2025. 

President Museveni's expected reelection is set to trigger opposition protests, but a heavy-handed crackdown will likely restore order within weeks, enabling him to resume focus on infrastructure projects and mitigating intra-elite tensions.

Previewing Uganda's General Elections

Syria

Turkey

Soldiers ride atop an armored vehicle during a military parade in Idlib, Syria, on Dec. 8, 2025. 

Domestic political maneuvering and limits on foreign military support will constrain Syria's ability to rebuild its military following the end of the country's civil war.

Internal Divisions Will Hinder Syria's Military Modernization

Columns

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

A 3D rendering of the Canadian, U.S. and Mexican flags.

The White House is expected to utilize threats of scrapping the trilateral pact in favor of bilateral agreements as a high-stakes negotiating tactic, creating a period of intense business uncertainty and market volatility.

The Outlook for USMCA Renegotiation in 2026

Politics

SITUATION REPORTS

Armenia, U.S.: TRIPP Framework Puts American Capital at the Heart of South Caucasus Geopolitics

Japan: Takaichi To Call Risky Snap Elections, Could Delay Budget

Israel, Gaza: Phase Two of Gaza Ceasefire To Begin, but Questions on Implementation Remain

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Closure Prompts Requests for Reexport of Stranded Cargo

U.S., Venezuela: PDVSA Resumes Oil Production Amid Washington's Efforts To Seize More Tankers

Nigeria: President Tinubu Unveils $2B Climate Fund, Economic Partnership With Abu Dhabi

Indonesia, U.S.: Washington's Security Demands Complicate Trade Deal Finalization

EU, Ukraine: Brussels Advances Ukraine Support Package Focused on Military Procurement From EU

Forecasts

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