Guinea Bissau

Military & Security

Politics

The Economic Community of West African States rejected the 12-month military transition plan proposed by Guinea Bissau's junta following the Nov. 26 coup that ousted President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, Reuters reported on  Dec. 14.

Guinea Bissau: ECOWAS Rejects Junta's Transitional Plan

Americas

Europe

Economics

France is pushing to delay a European Council vote scheduled for the week of Dec. 22 to approve the long-awaited EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, with Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu arguing safeguards proposed by the European Commission to address farmers' concerns remained incomplete, Reuters reported on Dec. 14.

EU, Mercosur: France Pushes To Delay EU Vote on Mercosur Trade Agreement

Australia

Two armed men, a father and son, opened fire on crowds attending a Hanukkah event near Bondi Beach in the eastern suburbs of Sydney, Australia, on Dec. 14 in what authorities deemed an antisemitic terrorist attack, according to multiple sources.

Australia: Antisemitic Violence Turns Fatal With Mass Shooting at Hanukkah Event

Chile

Social Issues

Far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast was elected president of Chile after winning 58.3% of the vote in the Dec. 14 runoff, La Tercera reported on the same day. 

Chile: Kast Wins Presidential Election, Propelling the Far-Right to Power

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Hamas' chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, said that Israel's alleged violations risked upending the Hamas-Israel ceasefire and that Hamas' arms are a "right guaranteed by international law" in a video statement released a day after Israel assassinated a senior Hamas commander, Raed Saad, in Gaza, Al Jazeera reported Dec. 14. 

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas Negotiator Rejects Disarmament After Assassination of Senior Commander 

United States

Cambodia

Thailand

U.S. President Donald Trump said via Truth Social that Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet had both agreed to "cease all shooting" effective the evening of Dec. 12 (which has already passed in-region) and revert to the earlier U.S.- and Malaysia-brokered peace accord, Reuters reported the same day. 

Thailand, Cambodia, U.S.: Trump Claims Ceasefire Reset, Bangkok Signals Conditions as Fighting Continues

Brazil

The U.S. Treasury Department lifted sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act on Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and his wife, Viviane Barci de Moraes, g1 reported on Dec. 12. 

U.S., Brazil: U.S. Lifts Magnitsky Sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice 

Ukraine

Russia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said any Russia-Ukraine ceasefire would require Ukraine's full withdrawal from the Donbas region, Kommersant reported on Dec. 12.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Signals Rigid Donbas Preconditions as Allies Revise Peace Plan

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant politics analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant politics analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

The Post-Apartheid Era Ends

Venezuela's Unraveling

The Saudi Survival Strategy

The Kurdish Struggle

Israel's Survival Strategy

Turkey's Resurgence

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

Brexit

Old Leaders in a New Africa

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The Pulse of Political Islam

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Russia's Internal Struggle

China in Transition

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

South Africa

France

The Ukrainian flag is projected on the facade of Berlaymont, the European Commission headquarters, in Brussels on Nov. 18 to commemorate the Nov. 18, 2024, Russian invasion of Ukraine.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A European Council Decision on Ukraine Financing, South Africa Braces for Commission Findings

Tunisia

Tunisia's President Kais Saied (top-R) waits to take his oath of office during his swearing-in ceremony before the National Assembly in Tunis on Oct. 21, 2024. 

Despite tensions with union leaders, Tunisia's controversial finance bill will introduce reforms that attract foreign investment and increase production in key sectors.

Strikes Loom as Tunisia's Government Undermines Labor Union

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.

Worsening tensions over sea access and Eritrea's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government raise the risk of intensifying proxy clashes that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation.

Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026

Iran

Lebanon

Yemen

Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.

If effective, the laser air defense system will significantly reduce the cost of intercepting short-range aerial threats and bolster Israel's multilayered protection against aerial attacks.


The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture

Jordanian police close the entrance of a Muslim Brotherhood headquarters on April 23, 2025, in Amman, Jordan.

While the White House has initiated a review process to label the Muslim Brotherhood a Foreign Terrorist Organization, it is unlikely to result in a comprehensive ban on the group.

U.S. Unlikely To Broadly Designate Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization

China

Philippines

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 

A widespread corruption scandal is threatening to cause political instability in the Philippines, which could lead to policy paralysis and weaken the Philippines' posture against China.

A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines

Benin

Nigeria

A photo taken on Dec. 8, 2025, shows an armored vehicle at the entrance of a blocked road in Cotonou, Benin, near the headquarters of the state broadcaster Benin TV.

The coup attempt will increase political and security risks ahead of Benin's 2026 elections, while the swift, Nigeria-led ECOWAS intervention suggests Abuja is assuming a more assertive regional role with tacit French backing following Paris's troop drawdown.

Benin's Foiled Coup Signals Strengthening Franco-Nigerian Coordination in West Africa

A Thai soldier points out an area on a map near the Cambodian border during a press visit on Aug. 16, 2025, in Sisaket, Thailand. 

Renewed fighting along the border could surpass the July clashes in scale, and while U.S. pressure will likely compel both countries to return to the ceasefire, the risk of future flare-ups will remain high.

Latest Thailand-Cambodia Clashes Will Test U.S. Appetite for Intervention

Palestinian Hamas militants stand guard as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp, in the northern Gaza Strip, on Dec. 1, 2025.

The shift toward a low-intensity conflict in the Gaza Strip will likely enable Israel to keep pressuring Hamas to disarm without triggering significant backlash or a resumption of Houthi maritime attacks.

Israel Moves Toward a De Facto Partition of Gaza

Tanzania

Hong Kong SAR, China

Protesters help an injured demonstrator near burning barricades amid clashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on Oct. 29, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

The Weekly Rundown: Unrest in Tanzania, an EU Summit in Ukraine

U.S.-China Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by Kremlin economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, meets with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 2, 2025.

Energy

Fundamental disagreements between Ukraine and Russia over territorial concessions and security guarantees suggest that peace negotiations are unlikely to lead to a comprehensive breakthrough.

Despite U.S. Diplomatic Push, Ukraine Peace Still a Long Way Off

Politics

SITUATION REPORTS

Guinea Bissau: ECOWAS Rejects Junta's Transitional Plan

EU, Mercosur: France Pushes To Delay EU Vote on Mercosur Trade Agreement

Australia: Antisemitic Violence Turns Fatal With Mass Shooting at Hanukkah Event

Chile: Kast Wins Presidential Election, Propelling the Far-Right to Power

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas Negotiator Rejects Disarmament After Assassination of Senior Commander

Thailand, Cambodia, U.S.: Trump Claims Ceasefire Reset, Bangkok Signals Conditions as Fighting Continues

U.S., Brazil: U.S. Lifts Magnitsky Sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Signals Rigid Donbas Preconditions as Allies Revise Peace Plan

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