Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

In February 2024, we argued that Ukraine's structural manpower deficit and limited ability to deepen its strike campaign inside Russia amid underwhelming Western support constituted major obstacles to Ukraine's ability to enter negotiations with Russia from a position of strength or win the war outright. Since then, the deployment of North Korean troops in support of Russia, Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election and Russia's accelerating advances in recent weeks have offered an opportunity to update the key forces of the war....