Nigeria will likely avoid major fiscal slippage and a liquidity crisis in 2025 if Brent oil prices stay around $60-65 a barrel, but declining oil prices risk exacerbating socioeconomic grievances by adding upward pressure on already high inflation, which would heighten protest risks and facilitate recruitment by jihadist and bandit groups. On May 12, the World Bank warned that Nigeria's 2025 budget relied on "overly ambitious revenue assumptions" that could result in a higher-than-anticipated fiscal deficit. These warnings come as global oil prices have steeply declined since the start of April following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of "reciprocal" U.S. tariffs, which fuelled concerns of a slowdown in global economic growth. Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on those tariffs enabled prices to rebound in mid-April, but the price of Brent -- the global benchmark for oil -- once again slipped below $60 a barrel in early May following OPEC+'s...
