ASSESSMENTS

The Drivers and Constraints to a Wider India-Pakistan Conflict

Apr 29, 2025 | 20:59 GMT

An Indian paramilitary trooper patrols a market area in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, in India-held Kashmir, on April 29, 2025.
An Indian paramilitary trooper patrols a market area in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, in India-held Kashmir, on April 29, 2025.

(TAUSEEF MUSTAFA/AFP via Getty Images)

India will likely launch limited military strikes against Pakistan in the coming days in retaliation for the deadly April 22 attack in Kashmir, increasing the risk of escalation despite both sides' desire to avoid a full-scale war and international pressure to de-escalate. On April 28, India and Pakistan entered their fifth consecutive day of cross-border gunfire, following India's accusations that Pakistan was involved in the April 22 militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 civilians and injured 17 others. The Resistance Front -- a militant group India accuses of being a front for the Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba -- initially claimed responsibility for the attack, which it says was in opposition to India sending more than 85,000 "outsiders" to Kashmir to promote "demographic change." The Resistance Front, which formed in the wake of India's contentious 2019 revocation of Kashmir's autonomy, has claimed sporadic attacks on non-locals in the region...

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