ASSESSMENTS

Ethiopia's Tigray Region Faces a Brewing Storm Amid Shifting Alliances

Aug 12, 2025 | 20:30 GMT

A Tigrayan flag waves at the entrance of a hospital in Tigray's regional capital, Mekele, on Oct. 10, 2024.
A Tigrayan flag waves at the entrance of a hospital in Tigray's regional capital, Mekele, on Oct. 10, 2024.

(MICHELE SPATARI/AFP via Getty Images)

Rising tensions in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region increase the risk of clashes between rival factions that could morph into a proxy conflict between the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments, with the threat of a military escalation set to persist through the end of next year due to likely tensions surrounding Ethiopia's 2026 general elections. On Aug. 1, Tigray's interim regional administration accused the opposition Semeret party, led by former interim regional administrator Getachew Reda, of launching a deadly attack on Tigrayan security forces in southeastern Tigray. While Semeret denounced the accusations as ''baseless,'' the regional administration said that the alleged attack could force it to take ''self-defensive'' measures against what it deemed to be politically disruptive behaviour. The same day, local media outlets released an interview with Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, where he announced the formation of an alliance of four Tigrayan political parties opposed to the governing Tigray Peoples' Liberation...

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