Gauging the Stability of the Thailand-Cambodia Ceasefire

A ceasefire has paused the deadliest Thailand-Cambodia clashes in over a decade, but unresolved disputes and political pressures make renewed fighting a moderate to high risk in the short to medium term, and probable in the long term, with the next exchanges likely to be deadlier. An unconditional ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia took effect at midnight local time on July 29, ending five days of fighting that began on July 24. The agreement was brokered on July 28 through the mediation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and amid diplomatic pressure from both the United States and China. Although both sides have so far accused each other of minor violations, the truce is holding, and Thailand and Cambodia have each broadcast their intent to abide by it. The agreement stipulates the creation of a joint monitoring mechanism involving foreign and military officials from Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia....