Over the past year, our trade series has highlighted how larger, less open economies gain coercive leverage through bilateral economic power, because they are less reliant on exports to smaller, more trade-dependent economies. As major powers like the United States, China and the European Union become more willing to politicize trade, they and every other country will seek to reduce their vulnerabilities to coercive protectionist measures, including by more frequently using export controls. The European Union and China, for example, are increasingly employing anti-coercion and counter-sanction tools that affect both trade and cross-border investment to deter protectionist measures and threats, going beyond traditional (i.e., WTO-compliant) anti-dumping and countervailing tariffs. This growing focus on economic security is also evident in countries’ efforts to diversify their trade ties (both imports and exports) and to reshore production of strategically important goods, such as semiconductors. In the coming years, greater geopolitical competition will continue...
