Iran's cyber strategy against the West is becoming increasingly focused and aggressive, though Iran's intentions currently outpace its capabilities; Iran's risk tolerance against the United States will likely remain high if former U.S. President Donald Trump is reelected in November, whereas the election of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris may offer a slim chance for resumed Western dialogue, which could lead Iran to reevaluate its risk appetite. Recent reports from U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies, as well as independent cybersecurity researchers, have alleged that Iran's most recent efforts to influence the 2024 U.S. election in November have emerged as a threat on par with Russian efforts. In particular, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) warned on July 9 that Iran is becoming increasingly aggressive and ambitious in its disinformation efforts. However, Iran's election influence operations are just one component of its broader cyber strategy against the...
