Kazakhstan’s proposed constitutional overhaul will likely reduce the risk of insider-led coups in the near term but is unlikely to address the country’s succession uncertainty and may exacerbate wider political volatility as elite competition and popular grievances intensify ahead of the end of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s term in 2029. On Jan. 20, Tokayev unveiled a comprehensive constitutional reform package aimed at restructuring Kazakhstan’s legislature, electoral system and line of succession. The proposals call for shifting from a bicameral to a unicameral parliament, with 145 deputies elected exclusively through a proportional party-list system. Tokayev also announced the reintroduction of the post of vice president to be appointed by the president, who would represent the president in diplomatic and parliamentary matters, but would not automatically become president if the presidency becomes vacant. Instead, a separate amendment would mandate snap presidential elections within two months. Additionally, Tokayev proposed creating a new constitutional body,...
