Iran and Hezbollah will respond to Israel's assassinations of top Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, and while both will aim to avoid a regional war, incidental miscalculations could cause rapid escalation that could nonetheless lead to such an outcome, especially as Israel will likely continue to conduct escalatory operations. On July 30 and 31, Israel carried out two major assassinations of top Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. First, on July 30, Israel struck a Hezbollah stronghold in the suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, killing Fuad Shukr, one of the group's most prominent commanders and senior members of its Jihad Council, Hezbollah's military leadership. In the early morning hours of July 31, Israel assassinated the chief of Hamas' political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, who was in Tehran, Iran, attending the inauguration of newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The attack was likely carried out by air using a projectile launched from an undetermined location and targeted...
