ASSESSMENTS

Sudan Slips Toward De Facto Partition

Nov 17, 2025 | 21:46 GMT

Sudanese Armed Forces soldiers are seen on the now-disabled Shambat Bridge in Khartoum.
Sudanese Armed Forces soldiers are seen on the now-disabled Shambat Bridge in Khartoum.

(Giles Clarke/Avaaz via Getty Images)

Although a de-escalation of Sudan's civil war is becoming more likely, the Sudanese Armed Forces is unlikely to agree to U.S.-led proposals beyond the ceasefire stage due to political considerations, with the ensuing deadlock likely entrenching Sudan's de facto partition and potentially leading to an eventual re-escalation in fighting. On Nov. 6, Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, announced that it had accepted proposals by the United States, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia -- a grouping known as the Quad -- for a humanitarian truce in its more than two-year civil war against the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF. The announcement came shortly after the RSF seized the western city of el-Fasher on Oct. 26 following an over 18-month siege that killed and displaced tens of thousands of civilians. Numerous reports have since emerged of RSF fighters conducting widespread atrocities against civilians in el-Fasher, including ethnically-motivated...

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