Syria and Israel's new intel-sharing agreement will likely reduce cross-border tensions in the coming months, but structural constraints and unresolved security dynamics mean the arrangement will remain fragile and prone to renewed escalation, limiting prospects for a sustainable, broader security pact. On Jan. 6, Syria and Israel announced that they had agreed to establish a joint mechanism aimed at sharing intelligence and coordinating military de-escalation under the supervision of the United States. The mechanism will also facilitate engagement and commercial opportunities between the two neighboring countries. Additionally, the new framework envisions the creation of a southern economic zone in Syria designed to incentivize stability through investment, reconstruction and cross-border economic activity -- mirroring projects promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump for Gaza and southern Lebanon, where economic incentives are intended to complement security arrangements and reduce incentives for renewed violence. Syria and Israel have been engaged in intermittent talks over...
