ASSESSMENTS

Turkey Shifts Iraq Strategy Amid Waning U.S. and Iranian Influence

Jul 29, 2025 | 15:11 GMT

Iraq and Turkey's flags together on a textile cloth fabric
Iraq and Turkey's flags together on a textile cloth fabric

(Getty Images; Oleksii Liskonih)

Turkey is shifting its Iraq policy from a security-focused approach to one centered on economic integration and infrastructure development. This move aims to expand Ankara's regional influence amid Iran's declining power and the gradual withdrawal of the U.S. presence, setting the stage for growing competition with Gulf states in the long term. Iraqi oil ministry officials stated on July 21 that Turkey submitted a new pipeline agreement to Iraq that would broaden the 1973 Iraq-Turkey Crude Oil Pipeline Agreement beyond just the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline to include cooperation on natural gas, petrochemicals and electricity. The submission comes after a July 21 decree by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announcing the 1973 agreement would be "terminated" on July 27, 2026, after it expires. Even prior to Iraq's announcement, however, Turkish officials signaled that their intent is not to abandon the pipeline entirely, pointing out that Turkey had invested heavily in the maintenance...

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