The U.S.-Iran framework deal will decrease the immediate risk of renewed conflict over the next 60 days, but shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will probably resume only gradually, given the persistent risk that talks stall, flare-ups resume or vessels face renewed harassment in and around the strait, while a sustainable nuclear deal will remain elusive. On June 14, the United States and Iran agreed to a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to extend their ceasefire for 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and continue nuclear negotiations after 107 days of war. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the framework after mediation by Pakistan and Qatar. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the United States would lift its naval blockade, while Iran is expected to reopen the strait once the deal is formally signed, on June 19 in Switzerland. While the MoU has not yet been publicly released, it reportedly...
