ASSESSMENTS

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Jan 5, 2026 | 22:09 GMT

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026.
Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026.

(Federico PARRA/AFP via Getty Images)

Following the U.S. capture of former President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela will remain highly volatile and exposed to internal violence and further U.S. attacks. Acting President Delcy Rodriguez will most likely adopt a pragmatic, cooperative stance toward Washington to ensure regime survival, but alternative scenarios include her opting for a defiant stance vis-a-vis Washington, a hard-line coup, an internal civil conflict and a highly unlikely transition to democracy. ...

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