If the next Spanish general election results in a coalition between the conservative Popular Party and far-right Vox, Spain is likely to experience recurring protests, renewed territorial tensions and periodic labor disruptions, though constitutional and EU constraints make severe institutional disruption unlikely. Spain is constitutionally required to hold its next general election no later than August 2027, although Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has the power to dissolve Parliament earlier and trigger a snap election. Polling consistently places the main opposition party, the conservative Popular Party, in first with between 30% and 34%. The governing Socialist Party (PSOE) remains competitive at around 27% to 31%, while the right-wing Vox scores between 16% and 18%. Even if the Popular Party were to emerge as the largest party, current projections indicate it would remain below the 176-seat threshold required for an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies. Consequently, the most plausible governing...
