United States

China

Japan

South Korea

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced on Jan. 23 the dissolution of the lower house of the Diet, with the campaign period set to begin on Jan. 27 and the vote scheduled for Feb. 8, marking the shortest window in Japan's history from dissolution to voting, Kyodo News reported on Jan. 23.

Japan: Takaichi Dissolves Lower House To Push Fiscal, Defense Expansion

Tanzania

Tanzanian Minister of Minerals Anthony Mavunde discussed a graphite partnership with U.S. Charge d'Affaires Andrew Lentz, The Chanzo reported on Jan. 21. 

Tanzania: Government in Talks With U.S. for Graphite Deal

Australia

U.S. uranium and rare earths company Energy Fuels agreed to acquire Australian Strategic Materials, or ASM, a rare earths mining and processing company, in a deal worth around $300 million paid entirely with Energy Fuels stock, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 21.

U.S., Australia: Rare Earths Deal Advances Non-China Supply Chains, but Execution Risks Loom Large

United Kingdom

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The United Kingdom and China established a forum to discuss cyber attacks, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 20. 

China, U.K.: Governments Set Up Cyber Dialogue

Canada

Following Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Jan. 16 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Carney announced at a news conference that Canada had agreed to exchange the 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles for a scaling quota system, while China will cut tariffs on Canadian canola seeds from 84% to 15%, AP reported the same day.

China, Canada: Deal To Cut Tariffs Comes With U.S. Top of Mind

Cuba

Venezuela

Iran

Russia

Energy

Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodriguez said in an annual address before the National Assembly that Venezuela is a sovereign nation that has the right to maintain ties with Russia, China, Iran and Cuba, El Pais reported on Jan. 15.

Venezuela: Rodriguez Outlines Challenging Balancing Act in Speech Before National Assembly

Cambodia

Hundreds of suspected cyberfraud operators rapidly vacated casino compounds in Sihanoukville, Cambodia's notorious scam hub, AFP reported Jan. 16.

Cambodia: Hundreds of Fraudsters Flee Sihanoukville

U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential proclamation on Jan. 14 placing a 25% tariff on certain advanced semiconductors under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.

U.S.: Washington Implements Narrow Tariffs on Semiconductors, Delays Decision on CRM Tariffs

Assessments

Israel

Palestinian Territories

India

Egyptian trucks and heavy machinery on Oct. 26, 2025, on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Border Reopening, EU Leaders Visit India

Columns

On Geopolitics

Europe

Global Trade

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Taiwan

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

U.S.-China Relations

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

Nigeria

Colombia

Mexico

Greenland

Norway

Ukraine

Pakistan

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

U.S.-Iran Relations

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Benin

Uganda

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark. Ukraine security talks and a Gaza peace plan will be in the spotlight at Davos.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

North Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Morocco

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A general view shows the closed border checkpoint between Cambodia and Thailand in Poipet, Cambodia, on Dec. 12, 2025, amid clashes in the area.

The Southeast Asian countries' second pause following the failed July ceasefire remains highly fragile due to early alleged violations and unresolved territorial disputes, which could lead to renewed large-scale fighting in the years ahead.

Another Thai-Cambodian Truce Halts Escalating Border Clashes -- For Now

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Despite growing interest from Russia, China and Western powers, Central Asia will struggle to emerge as a true continental trade hub due to competing agendas, weak financing and coordination, and security and governance issues.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 

A widespread corruption scandal is threatening to cause political instability in the Philippines, which could lead to policy paralysis and weaken the Philippines' posture against China.

A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines

<p>China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass, between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East and South China Seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid, sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell. More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Traditionally, threats to China&#39;s Han core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the Core&#39;s borders outward &mdash;integrating these highlands as strategic &quot;buffer&quot; zones. These zones form a shield, protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions. But maintaining control of the regions, in turn, requires a strong and united core. And that means overcoming immense internal divisions &mdash; not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with their own geography, history, dialect and interests. Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation, from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those when a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands. This pattern, rooted in China&#39;s geography, has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China&#39;s maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threaten to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space &mdash; and potentially upending the long-standing dynamics of China&#39;s geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Japan: Takaichi Dissolves Lower House To Push Fiscal, Defense Expansion

Tanzania: Government in Talks With U.S. for Graphite Deal

U.S., Australia: Rare Earths Deal Advances Non-China Supply Chains, but Execution Risks Loom Large

China, U.K.: Governments Set Up Cyber Dialogue

China, Canada: Deal To Cut Tariffs Comes With U.S. Top of Mind

Venezuela: Rodriguez Outlines Challenging Balancing Act in Speech Before National Assembly

Cambodia: Hundreds of Fraudsters Flee Sihanoukville

U.S.: Washington Implements Narrow Tariffs on Semiconductors, Delays Decision on CRM Tariffs

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