United States

Hong Kong SAR, China

Australia

China

Politics

Hong Kong's High Court sentenced 45 of the "Hong Kong 47" activists accused of holding unsanctioned democratic primaries in 2020 to four to 10 years in jail, Reuters reported on Nov. 19. 

Hong Kong: Sentencing of Democracy Activists To Rekindle Tensions With U.S., Australia

Economics

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee gave his annual policy address in which he pitched a $1.3 billion innovation fund for sectors that overlap with Beijing's "strategic emerging industries," Reuters reported on Oct. 16.

Hong Kong, China: Lee Highlights Development Policy Integration With Beijing

United Kingdom

U.S.-China Relations

Former U.K. judge Jonathan Sumption -- who resigned from his position on Hong Kong's Court of Final Appeals alongside fellow former U.K. judge ​​Lawrence Antony on June 6 -- elaborated his reasons for departure in the Financial Times on June 10, claiming there "are continual calls for judicial 'patriotism.' It requires unusual courage for local judges to swim against such a strong political tide." 

Hong Kong: U.K. Judge Asserts Hong Kong Judiciary is 'Profoundly Compromised'

Military & Security

Hong Kong police arrested four demonstrators for "seditious intent" and detained five more, including two foreign nationals, The South China Morning Post reported on June 5.

Hong Kong: Authorities Make Use of New National Security Ordinance With String of Arrests

Europe

Hong Kong's courts handed down verdicts on 16 of 47 pro-democracy individuals in the landmark Hong Kong 47 National Security Law, or NSL, case, Hong Kong Free Press reported on May 30.

Hong Kong: National Security Court Verdict Undermines China's Effort To Patch Ties With the West

Yemen

Yemen's Houthi rebels targeted Chinese-owned oil tanker Huang Pu in the Red Sea on March 23 with four anti-ship ballistic missiles, one of which struck the ship and caused slight damage but no casualties, The National reported on March 24.

Yemen: Houthis Target Chinese-Owned Oil Tanker in Red Sea, Despite Recent Agreement 

Hong Kong's legislature unanimously voted to pass a local version of the National Security Law during a snap meeting, Hong Kong Free Press reported on March 19. 

Hong Kong: Local National Security Law Passed in Record Time

The leaders of Chinese sports brand Li-Ning are considering taking the company private, off the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, after the company lost almost 70% of its market capitalization in the last year, Reuters reported on March 12.

Hong Kong: Li-Ning, Others Increasingly Consider Going Private From HKEX

Snapshots

Police officers set up a cordon as they disperse the public out of Victoria Park ahead of the 33rd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square incident on June 3, 2022, in Hong Kong, China.

The local national security law will pose legal and compliance risks to businesses in Hong Kong, and further impede China's efforts to curb the erosion of economic ties with the West.

Hong Kong's New Law Ushers In a China-Style National Security Environment

People in Hong Kong wave Chinese flags in celebration of the 26th anniversary of Hong Kong's handover from Britain to China on July 1, 2023. 

New national security provisions will further erode Hong Kong's status as a safe haven for China-facing businesses, while impeding Western efforts to mitigate competition with China.

China's Campaign To Curb Foreign Influence Comes to Hong Kong

Columns

On Geopolitics

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

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Argentina

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Turkey

Japan

South Korea

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France

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Russia

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Assessments

Brazil

Guyana

Venezuela

A photo taken from southern Israel near the border with the Gaza Strip shows a rocket being fired from inside Gaza toward Israel, as fighting resumed between the Israeli forces and Hamas militants after a temporary cease-fire expired on Dec. 1, 2023.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Gaza War Resumes, Venezuela Votes on Guyana Dispute

Chinese and Hong Kong flags are strung between buildings to mark the 26th anniversary of the city's handover from Britain to China on June 27, 2023, in Hong Kong.

Social Issues

The territory will continue down the path of political and economic integration into China, complicating business operations in the region.

Hong Kong District Elections Herald Political and Economic Changes to Come

Singapore

People cycle along the promenade at Marina Bay in Singapore on Oct. 13, 2023. 

While it may briefly slow its economy, the city-state's robust response to the crisis will ultimately mitigate the impact on Singapore's reputation as an easy and safe place to do business.

Singapore Races To Keep Money Laundering From Muddying Its Image

Ethiopia

Nigeria

Iran

Germany

Belarus

Grading Our 2022 Annual Forecast as 2023 Approaches

Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks during the Opening Ceremony of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party on Oct. 16, 2022, in Beijing, China. 

President Xi's address at the twice-a-decade political meeting painted a picture of a government and economy beset by both internal and external enemies.

A Half-Time Report on China's 20th Party Congress

Hong Kong Chief Executive-elect John Lee (right) and current Chief Executive Carrie Lam attend a press conference at the Central Government Complex on May 9, 2022, in Hong Kong, China. 

Security

China in Transition

The incoming chief executive's focus on national security and ties with Beijing bodes ill for Hong Kongers' personal freedoms and the territory's business climate.

Under John Lee, Hong Kong's Democratic Backsliding Will Accelerate

Guidance

From left to right, the foreign ministers of the United States, Australia, India and Japan hold a press conference after a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) meeting in Melbourne on Feb. 11, 2022.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

COVID-19

Environment, Science & Technology

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

Science & Technology

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Europe to Discuss Ukraine, India Meets With Fellow Quad Members

A Hong Kong Airlines plane lands Sept. 1, 2021, at Sydney Kingsford Smith Airport. Hong Kong authorities will suspend transit flights from 150 countries from Jan. 16 to Feb. 15 in response to the global spread of the omicron variant.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Ukraine Tensions Continue, South Korea's President Tours the Mideast

The president of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council, Andrew Leung (center), looks on as Chief Executive Carrie Lam (left) makes an address during the first session of the newly elected legislature on Jan. 12, 2022. 

The likely addition of new NSL crimes will present greater surveillance and discrimination risks to businesses and Hong Kong citizens.

A Plan to Expand Hong Kong’s National Security Law Accelerates China’s Takeover

<p>Located at China&#39;s doorstep along the Pearl River Delta, Hong Kong has long served as a bridge between mainland China and the West. More than 150 years of British colonial rule (beginning in the 1840s) endowed the city with a uniquely liberal economy, a Western regulatory system, and strong rule of law that differentiate it from many other parts of the Asia-Pacific region. These characteristics helped to transform the city into a leading reexport and financial center in the past five decades, building on connections into the mainland&#39;s lucrative market and industry. Nearly 8 million people reside in the special region&#39;s 687 square kilometer (427 square mile) territory, making it the world&#39;s most densely populated city with a high level of ethnic diversity.</p><p>Under the Sino-British Joint Declaration, Hong Kong was guaranteed economic and political autonomy under the &quot;One Country, Two Systems&quot; principle for 50 years after the handover to China in 1997. But years of attempts by Beijing to increase its political control over the city and the consequences of deeper economic integration have eroded that status. This, coupled with the city&#39;s deep-rooted socio-economic issues, contribute to a rising tide of Hong Kong nativism manifesting as pro-independence advocacy, particularly among the younger generation. As the city struggles to diversify its economy beyond the financial and retail industry, its growing political polarization and radicalization combined with concerns about Beijing&#39;s encroachment could threaten Hong Kong&#39;s economic prospects at a time when mainland cities and the rest of the Asia-Pacific region are preparing to seize new opportunities.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Hong Kong: Sentencing of Democracy Activists To Rekindle Tensions With U.S., Australia

Hong Kong, China: Lee Highlights Development Policy Integration With Beijing

Hong Kong: U.K. Judge Asserts Hong Kong Judiciary is 'Profoundly Compromised'

Hong Kong: Authorities Make Use of New National Security Ordinance With String of Arrests

Hong Kong: National Security Court Verdict Undermines China's Effort To Patch Ties With the West

Yemen: Houthis Target Chinese-Owned Oil Tanker in Red Sea, Despite Recent Agreement

Hong Kong: Local National Security Law Passed in Record Time

Hong Kong: Li-Ning, Others Increasingly Consider Going Private From HKEX

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