China

Myanmar

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Economics

Politics

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra met Xi Jinping in Beijing, where the Chinese leader endorsed Thailand's crackdown on Myanmar-based scam hubs while agreeing to deepen cooperation in law enforcement, infrastructure and tourism, the South China Morning Post reported Feb 6. 

Thailand, China: Thai PM's Visit to Beijing Highlights Deepening Security, Supply Chain Ties

Military & Security

Myanmar's ruling junta extended the country's state of emergency for another six months, citing the need for "stability and peace" ahead of planned elections, Reuters reported on Jan. 31.

Myanmar: Junta Extends State of Emergency Amid Election Prep

Cambodia

Laos

Vietnam

The Myanmar junta and ethnic armed organization Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, signed a China-brokered ceasefire agreement, halting conflict in northern Shan state along the Chinese border, Reuters reported on Jan. 21. 

Myanmar: Ceasefire, Scam Crackdown Highlight Growing Regional Congruence

Myanmar's Arakan Army, an ethnic armed organization in the country's western state of Rakhine, claimed to have captured Ann township, a strategic victory edging the group closer to control over the entire state, Nikkei Asia reported Dec. 23.

Myanmar: Following Losses in the North, More of West Falls to Rebels

Myanmar's Foreign Minister Gen. Than Shwe told a regional conference in Bangkok, Thailand, that his country is "on track" to hold an election in 2025 that will end Myanmar's civil war, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 19.

Myanmar: Foreign Minister Says War-Ending Election on Track for 2025

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, one of Myanmar's belligerent ethnic armed organizations, announced a unilateral ceasefire in its armed conflict with the country's governing junta and will pursue more formal peace talks, The Asahi Shimbun reported on Dec. 5.

Myanmar: One Rebel Group Declares Unilateral Ceasefire

The Kachin Independence Army, or KIA, one of the ethnic armed organizations in Myanmar's civil conflict, claimed control of the Kachin state towns of Panwe and Chipwe adjacent to China's Yunnan province, Reuters reported on Oct. 23.

Myanmar: Rebel Group Claims Control of Rare Earths Hub

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said it was "deeply shocked" by an Oct. 18 attack on its consulate in Mandalay, Myanmar, by rebel forces, the South China Morning Post reported on Oct. 21.

Myanmar: China Condemns Attack on Consulate Building in Mandalay, Demands Action

Assessments

Members of Myanmar's military patrol on a street next to Shwedagon Pagoda during the fourth anniversary of the military coup in Yangon on Feb. 1, 2025. 

The junta will struggle to retain control over large parts of the country in 2025, but it will still seek to hold elections to legitimize continued rule by civilian proxy and appease China.

Facing Territorial Losses and External Pressure, Myanmar's Junta Plans Elections

Brunei Darussalam

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (center) and other ASEAN leaders take part in the 2024 ASEAN summit in Vientiane on Oct. 9, 2024. 

The deals signed at the summit reflect an increasing focus on economic integration amid the Southeast Asian bloc's continued failure to find consensus on security issues.

Reviewing the 2024 ASEAN Summit

Members of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army ethnic armed organization train March 8, 2023, in Myanmar's northern Shan state. The resistance's push into the country's interior will further destabilize the business environment and threaten the military government's long-term survival, but the military's ability to hold out in well-defended positions means its collapse remains unlikely for the foreseeable future. 

In Myanmar, the resistance's push into the country's interior will further destabilize the business environment and threaten the military government's long-term survival, but the military's ability to hold out in well-defended positions means its collapse remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Myanmar Rebels Put the Junta on the Defensive in Its Heartland

An aerial photo taken on Sept. 25, 2022, shows solar panels at the Sao Mai solar energy plant in Vietnam’s An Giang province. 

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Several ASEAN countries are on track to develop substantial renewable power capacities in the short term, but technical, political and financial constraints, coupled with incentives to keep burning fossil fuels, will impede long-term decarbonization goals.

The Challenges Facing Southeast Asia's Decarbonization

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (R) delivers an opening address at the start of a bilateral meeting with Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (L) at the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, on Dec. 16, 2023.

Laos' vulnerabilities will weaken its ASEAN chairmanship, although the bloc's economic interconnectivity will likely continue to grow.

Laos' Limitations Portend a Lukewarm Year for ASEAN

A member of the Karenni Revolutionary Union (KRU) is seen in the back of a pick-up truck on May 10, 2023, in Kayah State, Myanmar.

While it may never be able to retake all rebel-seized territory, the country's junta will likely maintain control of major urban areas, portending several more years of bloody civil war.

In Myanmar, Rebels Make Advances, but Peace Remains a Distant Prospect

Snapshots

United States

Regional leaders pose for a group photo before the ASEAN-Australia summit, held as part of the 43rd ASEAN summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Sept. 7, 2023. From left to right stand the Philippines' President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Thailand's Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Sarun Charoensuwan, Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Indonesia's President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, Brunei's Prime Minister Hassanal Bolkiah, Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet, Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and East Timor's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao.

U.S.-China Relations

ASEAN's most recent summit underscored chronic passivity within the bloc that will only worsen in 2024. 

Amid ASEAN's Inaction, the Block's Members Look to External Partners for Security

A Chinese coast guard ship sails past anchored Philippine fishing boats in the Scarborough Shoal, in the disputed South China Sea, on Feb. 3, 2023.

A binding code of conduct in the South China Sea remains unlikely, despite the resumption of negotiations between claimant states.

With No Deal in Sight, South China Sea Claimants Continue to Militarize

Media

Podcasts

An overview of the country's evolving conflict

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Myanmar's Civil War

Anti-coup fighters escort protesters as they take part in a demonstration against the military coup in Sagaing, Myanmar, on Sept. 7, 2022. 

Two years after the 2021 military coup, the Southeast Asian country remains mired in an increasingly violent and economically disruptive civil war with no quick end in sight.

Two Years and Counting: The State of Myanmar's Post-Coup Conflict

Burkina Faso

Ghana

Guinea

Mali

Chile

Europe

Members of the Constitutional Convention pose for a picture during the official presentation of the draft they made of the new constitution on May 16, 2022, at the Ruinas de Huanchaca National Monument in Antofagasta, Chile.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Chilean Constitution Is Unveiled, an ECOWAS Summit

Guidance

Senegal

Brazil

France

Germany

Poland

Hungary

Ukraine

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) greets Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Nov. 14, 2019, in Brasilia, Brazil, on the sidelines of a BRICS summit. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will visit Russia on Feb. 14-17 in an effort to boost relations between the two countries.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Ukraine Conflict

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An EU-AU Summit, the German Chancellor in Ukraine and Russia

The core of Myanmar is the fertile Irrawaddy River valley. The region, a long, flat area that is relatively easy to consolidate, is vulnerable to invasion from the surrounding mountains, particularly the Hengduan Mountains along the northern border with China. Invading Mongols and the now-dominant ethnic Burman, for example, twice overthrew governments in the Irrawaddy valley. Though control of Myanmar's surrounding mountains provides security for the valley's core, it can also stir conflict with the various ethnic groups that inhabit the border regions. As a result, Myanmar has never completely solidified its own territory.    The country borders Bangladesh and India to the west, but a mountain chain separates and protects it from those neighbors. To the northeast, likewise, high mountains and rugged jungle provide a formidable barrier against China. The Shan Plateau to the east poses less of a physical challenge, allowing various ethnic groups to move easily across political boundaries. Historically, the absence of a barrier has facilitated Myanmar's communication with Thailand and Laos, while also making for more frequent conflict with them.     Myanmar's location makes it a natural bridge between the Indian Ocean basin, Southeast Asia and southern China. Coupled with the country's energy resources &mdash; including oil and natural gas &mdash; its position has made it a target for foreign intervention, whether overt, as with the United Kingdom or Japan, or less direct, as with China's recent ports, pipeline and transport infrastructure projects. Foreign interference, like internal ethnic conflict, is a perennial concern for Myanmar because of its physical geography.

SITUATION REPORTS

Thailand, China: Thai PM's Visit to Beijing Highlights Deepening Security, Supply Chain Ties

Myanmar: Junta Extends State of Emergency Amid Election Prep

Myanmar: Ceasefire, Scam Crackdown Highlight Growing Regional Congruence

Myanmar: Following Losses in the North, More of West Falls to Rebels

Myanmar: Foreign Minister Says War-Ending Election on Track for 2025

Myanmar: One Rebel Group Declares Unilateral Ceasefire

Myanmar: Rebel Group Claims Control of Rare Earths Hub

Myanmar: China Condemns Attack on Consulate Building in Mandalay, Demands Action

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