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The Philippines joined the semiconductor-focused, U.S.-led Pax Silica coalition and agreed to host a 4,000-acre Economic Security Zone on the island of Luzon, a U.S.-administered industrial hub on Philippine soil intended to anchor allied supply chains outside China, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 16. 

Philippines, U.S.: Washington and Manila To Launch Strategic Manufacturing Push in Luzon

Energy

Military & Security

The Philippines said a Chinese military aircraft fired flares near a Philippine patrol aircraft operating over disputed areas of the South China Sea, calling the action dangerous and provocative but reporting no damage or injuries, Bloomberg reported on April 9. 

China, Philippines: Flare Incident and New Base Highlight Managed but Persistent South China Sea Tensions

Vietnam

Chinese tankers delivered more than 260,000 barrels of diesel to the Philippines and about 100,000 barrels of distillates to Vietnam on March 28-29, Bloomberg reported on March 29.

China, Philippines, Vietnam: Beijing Sends Needed Fuel as South China Sea Talks Resume

France

On March 26, the Philippines and France signed a status of visiting forces agreement, allowing their militaries to deploy personnel in each other's territories for joint training, exercises and operations, The Philippine Star reported the next day.

Philippines, France: Paris Latest To Sign Visiting Forces Agreement With Manila

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a state of national emergency on March 24 due to the impact of the Iran war on global oil supply and prices, The Straits Times reported the next day.

Philippines: National Emergency Declared Amid Energy Crisis

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said energy supply risks stemming from the war in the Middle East could spur renewed discussions with China on joint energy development in the South China Sea, Bloomberg reported on March 24.

Philippines, China: Energy Pressures Drive Talks, Temporary Calm in the South China Sea

South Korea

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung is in the Philippines and, with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., oversaw the signing of multiple agreements expanding defense industrial cooperation, including provisions easing procurement rules and broadening eligibility for South Korean companies in ongoing Philippine military modernization projects, Nikkei Asia reported on March 4. 

South Korea, Philippines: Seoul Further Expands Defense Ties With Manila 

U.S. land-based reconnaissance aircraft conducted 72 sorties over the South China Sea in February, marking a 30% drop from the 102 conducted in both January and December, The South China Morning Post reported March 3.

Asia Pacific: U.S. Reconnaissance Flights in the South China Sea Drop 30% in February 

Assessments

A Chinese navy ship (background left) is seen while an Australian navy ship (right) takes part in a maritime cooperative activity with the Philippines and Canada in the disputed waters of the South China Sea on Sept. 3, 2025.

China, the Philippines and Vietnam's efforts to rebalance coercive activity with diplomatic engagement have temporarily lowered escalation risks, but persistent rivalries ensure long-term volatility.

In the South China Sea, Managed Tension Masks Long-Term Volatility

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Singapore

Thailand

Philippine Foreign Minister Theresa Lazaro speaks at a press conference during a Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Cebu City, the Philippines, on Jan. 29, 2026.

The coming year will test ASEAN's ability to maintain unity, manage crises and remain a credible regional forum amid rising internal security risks and a more fractured world order, particularly as the Philippines butts heads with China in the South China Sea.

Previewing the Philippines 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

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Flight routes.

Cyber

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 

A widespread corruption scandal is threatening to cause political instability in the Philippines, which could lead to policy paralysis and weaken the Philippines' posture against China.

A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

Global Trade

U.S.-China Relations

The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

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Bangladesh

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

 The European Union and China will hold a high-level leaders' summit July 24 in Beijing, marking the 50th anniversary of Chinese-EU diplomatic relations.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An EU-China Summit, South Africa's Budget Vote

The Geopolitics of Trade

The impending full implementation of sweeping U.S. tariffs threatens to significantly disrupt export-driven ASEAN economies, which is driving countries to seek alternative trade partners.

The Geopolitics of Trade: U.S. Tariffs Give Impetus to ASEAN Trade Diversification

Snapshots

Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections. 

President Marcos' diminished Senate majority could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President

A Chinese frigate participates in a naval parade in the sea near Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 23, 2019. 

A shift from coastguard to naval confrontations raises the likelihood of sharp, short direct conflict that would significantly worsen already high maritime tensions.

Chinese-Philippine Naval Confrontations Raise the Stakes in South China Sea Tensions

Media

Mexico

Forecast Webcast

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S.-Iran Relations

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Second-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is escorted by security personnel as he enters a campaign rally at Southorn Stadium in Hong Kong, China, on March 9, 2025. 

The ex-president's high-profile arrest risks factionalizing Philippine institutions and altering the landscape around May midterm elections, which will influence the country's foreign policy trajectory.

In the Philippines, Duterte's Arrest Raises the Stakes of Upcoming Elections

The Philippines is a collection of over 7,000 islands situated at the confluence of the South China Sea, the Indonesian archipelago, the Philippine Sea and Pacific Ocean. It forms the outer edge of maritime Southeast Asia, and for much of its modern history has served as a gateway between western powers and continental Asia.     A former colony of both Spain and the United States, the Philippines today consists of three island clusters: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Luzon, with the country’s capital in Manila, is the political, cultural and economic core of modern Philippines. It is highly urbanized relative to the rest of the country, boasts a large port and deep harbor, and accounts for roughly one-third of the Philippines GDP. Mindanao has long been a hotbed for political unrest and insurgent movements and is populated by the predominantly Muslim Moro tribes. It is also an important fruit and produce exporter.    The Philippines is shaped by sharp geographic, economic and social divisions between a primarily urban north — in Luzon — and a heavily agricultural, poorer south. This, along with the fractured island geography, makes effective national integration difficult. It also undermines Manila's efforts to play a stronger role throughout the South China Sea region or guard against external infringement on its territorial waters, especially from China. That weakness is apparent today, as China's increasingly aggressive moves to assert its own maritime claims test Manila's voice in groups like ASEAN as well as its alliance with the U.S.    While the Philippines’ location at the entrance to maritime Southeast Asia makes it geopolitically significant, internal imbalances continue to hamper its ability to actively defend its own claims, let alone project power.

Supply Chains

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

SITUATION REPORTS

Philippines, U.S.: Washington and Manila To Launch Strategic Manufacturing Push in Luzon

China, Philippines: Flare Incident and New Base Highlight Managed but Persistent South China Sea Tensions

China, Philippines, Vietnam: Beijing Sends Needed Fuel as South China Sea Talks Resume

Philippines, France: Paris Latest To Sign Visiting Forces Agreement With Manila

Philippines: National Emergency Declared Amid Energy Crisis

Philippines, China: Energy Pressures Drive Talks, Temporary Calm in the South China Sea

South Korea, Philippines: Seoul Further Expands Defense Ties With Manila

Asia Pacific: U.S. Reconnaissance Flights in the South China Sea Drop 30% in February

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