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China pledged to sign the 1997 Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty "without reservation," according to Malaysia's foreign minister, Reuters reported on July 10. 

China, ASEAN: Nuclear Pledge and Trade Ties Spell Symbolic but Not Structural Alignment

United States

Association of Southeast Asian countries are reeling in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's July 7 announcement that six ASEAN countries -- including Indonesia (32%), Malaysia (25%), Thailand (36%), Cambodia (36%), Laos (40%) and Myanmar (40%) -- will face new reciprocal tariffs starting Aug. 1, with separate 40% tariffs targeting goods transshipped through ASEAN countries, Nikkei Asia reported July 8.

ASEAN, U.S.: New Trump Tariff Rates Target ASEAN Economies 

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The United States plans to impose new restrictions on exports of advanced artificial intelligence chips to Malaysia and Thailand to curb suspected transshipment and smuggling to China, per a new draft rule, Bloomberg reported on July 4.

U.S., Malaysia, Thailand: Washington Targets Southeast Asia in AI Chip Export Crackdown

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BRICS+ leaders gathered in Brazil for the bloc's 17th summit and issued a joint statement defending multilateralism, calling for U.N. reform and supporting Russia's and Iran's positions in ongoing conflicts, g1 reported on July 6.

BRICS+: Bloc Increasingly Leans Away From West, but Avoids Picking Fights With U.S.

Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office while it reviews a petition alleging she violated the constitution by consulting with foreign leaders, The Nation Thailand reported on July 1.

Thailand: Prime Minister's Suspension Could Lead to Government Gridlock

Thailand's Bhumjaithai Party is filing a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, citing her mishandling of a leaked call with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, Reuters reported on June 24.

Thailand: No-Confidence Vote Is Impending as Military Seals Border

The Thai coalition government's second-largest party, the United Thai Nation Party, is threatening to exit the government if Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra does not resign, the Bangkok Post reported on June 20. 

Thailand: Ruling Coalition Teeters on Collapse, Economy Suffers

Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen leaked a June 15 phone call between himself and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in which the latter blamed the Thai military for recent border tensions and appeared deferential to Hun, The Bangkok Post reported on June 18.

Thailand, Cambodia: Leaked Call Drives Mass Demonstrations, Political and Escalation Risks

Snapshots

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (center) speaks next to Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai (2nd from left) during a press conference in Bangkok following her suspension by the country's Constitutional Court on July 1, 2025. 

Paetongtarn's suspension from office over a leaked phone call with Cambodia's former leader risks collapsing her fragile government and inviting more economic disruption amid U.S. trade tensions.

A Fresh Political Crisis Erupts in Thailand Following Prime Minister's Suspension

Assessments

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

The impending full implementation of sweeping U.S. tariffs threatens to significantly disrupt export-driven ASEAN economies, which is driving countries to seek alternative trade partners.

The Geopolitics of Trade: U.S. Tariffs Give Impetus to ASEAN Trade Diversification

The Ta Moan Thom temple is seen on the border between Thailand and Cambodia.

While full-scale military conflict is unlikely, the dispute risks spurring localized border clashes, as both Cambodia and Thailand maintain entrenched military positions with no clear legal resolution.

Thai-Cambodian Tensions Flare Over Disputed Temple, Raising Fears of Clashes

Timor-Leste

The flags of the countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, are seen on display.

U.S.-China Relations

Malaysia's chairmanship will be pivotal in navigating security risks as well as those from U.S. trade restrictions, potential Chinese economic coercion, and supply chain realignments that threaten ASEAN's cohesion and strategic autonomy.

Previewing Malaysia's 2025 ASEAN Chairmanship

Energy

The Geopolitics of Water

Amid pressing energy and geopolitical needs, the accelerating construction of upstream dams will exacerbate the Mekong River region's water shortages and environmental degradation.

The Geopolitics of Water: National Interests Sideline Environmental Concerns in the Mekong River Region

Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (center) and other ASEAN leaders take part in the 2024 ASEAN summit in Vientiane on Oct. 9, 2024. 

The deals signed at the summit reflect an increasing focus on economic integration amid the Southeast Asian bloc's continued failure to find consensus on security issues.

Reviewing the 2024 ASEAN Summit

The flags of ASEAN members are displayed at a naval base during the ASEAN Solidarity Exercise in Batam, Natuna regency, Riau Islands province, Indonesia, on Sept. 20, 2023. 

ASEAN's economic and geopolitical diversity will impede significant progress toward deeper integration, despite members' intention to collaborate more closely.

Economic and Geopolitical Diversity Hinders ASEAN's Path to Deeper Integration

Former Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin addresses the media after the Thai Constitutional Court removed him from office Aug. 14 in Bangkok.

The removal of the Thai prime minister represents the military establishment's latest attempt to impose its influence on the government, which in the coming months and years will continue to constrain Thailand's economic growth while stoking social unrest.

The Thai Military Establishment Replaces Another Prime Minister

Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin watches a race during the F1 Grand Prix in Imola, Italy, on May 19, 2024.

Three legal cases against prominent political figures portend renewed protests and policy paralysis that will weigh on Thailand's fragile economy.

Thai Politics Undergoes Another Round of Instability

An aerial photo taken on Sept. 25, 2022, shows solar panels at the Sao Mai solar energy plant in Vietnam’s An Giang province. 

Several ASEAN countries are on track to develop substantial renewable power capacities in the short term, but technical, political and financial constraints, coupled with incentives to keep burning fossil fuels, will impede long-term decarbonization goals.

The Challenges Facing Southeast Asia's Decarbonization

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivers a speech at the gala dinner for the ASEAN-Japan commemorative summit in Tokyo on Dec. 17, 2023. 

Over the next year, Tokyo will provide ASEAN countries with military equipment and more infrastructure investment, which will raise threat perceptions and further deteriorate Japan's ties with China.

The Implications of Japan's Growing Interest in Southeast Asia

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (R) delivers an opening address at the start of a bilateral meeting with Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (L) at the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, on Dec. 16, 2023.

Laos' vulnerabilities will weaken its ASEAN chairmanship, although the bloc's economic interconnectivity will likely continue to grow.

Laos' Limitations Portend a Lukewarm Year for ASEAN

Located in Southeast Asia, Thailand is bordered by Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Malaysia. The core of modern Thailand lies on the flat, rich lowlands in the central Chao Phraya River basin. This basin is one of the world's most fertile agricultural areas, growing mostly rice and fruits. As a result, it became a political and economic center, where Bangkok, the country's capital, was founded.    Thailand’s strategic location between Indochina and the Andaman and South China seas, along with its agricultural resources, has historically made it a target of foreign invasion. Therefore, Thailand’s main geographic challenge is protecting its core from invaders while consolidating power in its diverse outlying regions.    Protected in the north by mountains and the Khorat Plateau, Thailand’s biggest external threats have come through the Tenasserim mountain range from Myanmar or from Cambodia to the east. But Thailand’s central location also helped prevent its colonization, as the French and British used it as a buffer between each other's empires.    Thailand’s geography has also presented internal challenges. In the northwest, mountainous terrain has prevented the area from being easily controlled, fostering political struggles in modern times between these provinces and Bangkok. Annexed in the early 20th century, southern Thailand has an ethnically Malay, Muslim majority and continues to resist Bangkok through low-level insurgency and violence. Although Thailand's size, location and arable land allow it to exert influence regionally, its unwieldy periphery and occasionally hostile neighbors will continue to present it with challenges.

SITUATION REPORTS

China, ASEAN: Nuclear Pledge and Trade Ties Spell Symbolic but Not Structural Alignment

ASEAN, U.S.: New Trump Tariff Rates Target ASEAN Economies

U.S., Malaysia, Thailand: Washington Targets Southeast Asia in AI Chip Export Crackdown

BRICS+: Bloc Increasingly Leans Away From West, but Avoids Picking Fights With U.S.

Thailand: Prime Minister's Suspension Could Lead to Government Gridlock

Thailand: No-Confidence Vote Is Impending as Military Seals Border

Thailand: Ruling Coalition Teeters on Collapse, Economy Suffers

Thailand, Cambodia: Leaked Call Drives Mass Demonstrations, Political and Escalation Risks

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