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Thailand's ruling conservative Bhumjaithai Party won the Feb. 8 elections by securing 193 out of 500 seats in the House of Representatives (up from 71), while the left-wing People's Party won 118 (down from 151), the populist, center-left Pheu Thai Party won 74 (down from 141), and the new, military-aligned Kla Tham won 58, Reuters reported on Feb. 9. 

Thailand: Bhumjaithai Election Victory Stabilizes Politics, Empowers Military

Cambodia announced that an unspecified senior U.S. State Department official will visit its capital, Phnom Penh, to assist in stabilizing the country's fragile ceasefire with Thailand, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 8.

Cambodia, U.S.: State Department Official To Visit Phnom Penh

On Jan. 5, a Thai soldier was injured by shrapnel after a mortar round landed in Thailand's Ubon Ratchathani province, with Thai authorities accusing Cambodia of breaching the two countries' Dec. 27, 2025, ceasefire as a result, the Bangkok Post reported the next day. 

Thailand, Cambodia: Mortar Incident Highlights Ceasefire's Fragility

A Cambodian defense ministry spokesperson announced on Dec. 31 that the ministry had received the transfer of 18 Cambodian soldiers who had been detained in Thailand since a previous round of border clashes between the two sides in July.

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok Releases Prisoners in Line With Ceasefire

Military officials from Thailand and Cambodia began secretariat-level talks in Thailand's Chantaburi province, with a possible defense minister-level meeting scheduled for Dec. 27 if technical frameworks are agreed upon, Channel News Asia reported Dec. 24.

Thailand, Cambodia: Ceasefire Talks Resume Under Thai Preconditions

Thailand and Cambodia agreed to talks between their defense officials under the bilateral General Border Committee on Dec. 24 to resume the U.S.-brokered July 28 ceasefire; the decision followed a special meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers Dec. 22 in Kuala Lumpur.

Thailand, Cambodia: Ceasefire Talks To Resume Despite Ongoing Fighting

The Thai army said recent airstrikes in Cambodia targeted scam compounds and illegal casinos allegedly used by Cambodian forces as military facilities, including drone command centers and weapons depots, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 18.

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok Reframes Border Conflict as Crackdown on Transnational Scam Networks

The Thailand-Cambodia border conflict continued to widen on Dec. 13-15, with Thailand signaling it would sustain military operations and Cambodia formalizing and expanding cross-border movement restrictions, Channel News Asia reported on Dec. 15.

Thailand, Cambodia: Ceasefire Claims Fail as Clashes Spread

Snapshots

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul arrives at the Government House in Bangkok on Feb. 9, 2026.

The incumbent conservative party's victory will improve short-term political stability, but governance will remain constrained by coalition dynamics, entrenched institutions and uncertain constitutional reform.

Thailand Approves Constitutional Reform, Re-Elects Conservative Party

Assessments

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Campaign posters Feb. 6 of candidates running in the upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election, in Inagi, Tokyo prefecture.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan Holds Snap Elections, U.S. Weighs Options After Iran Talks

People walk past campaign posters in Bangkok on Feb. 2, 2026, ahead of Thailand's Feb. 8 general election.

Thailand's Feb. 8 general election and constitutional referendum are unlikely to deliver a decisive political reset and will instead risk extending a familiar cycle of constrained reform and policy caution amid heightened security and economic pressures.

Elections and Referendum Unlikely to End Thailand's Cycle of Constrained Governance

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As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A general view shows the closed border checkpoint between Cambodia and Thailand in Poipet, Cambodia, on Dec. 12, 2025, amid clashes in the area.

The Southeast Asian countries' second pause following the failed July ceasefire remains highly fragile due to early alleged violations and unresolved territorial disputes, which could lead to renewed large-scale fighting in the years ahead.

Another Thai-Cambodian Truce Halts Escalating Border Clashes -- For Now

A U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier II on Dec. 15 taxis at Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: French Budget Deadlock, U.S.-Russia Talks in Miami

A Thai soldier points out an area on a map near the Cambodian border during a press visit on Aug. 16, 2025, in Sisaket, Thailand. 

Renewed fighting along the border could surpass the July clashes in scale, and while U.S. pressure will likely compel both countries to return to the ceasefire, the risk of future flare-ups will remain high.

Latest Thailand-Cambodia Clashes Will Test U.S. Appetite for Intervention

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People watch the USS Gravely, a Navy warship, departing the Port of Spain on Oct. 30, 2025. The U.S. warship arrived in Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 26, 2025, for joint exercises near the coast of Venezuela, as Washington ratcheted up pressure on drug traffickers and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Saudi Meeting, Military Escalation in the Caribbean

Thailand's Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul (C) after chairing a National Security Council on Nov. 11 in Bangkok. An armed clash on the Thai-Cambodian border raises the risk of escalations that unwind the two countries' recent peace accord, though a return to full-scale war is less likely due to U.S. economic and security leverage.

While the most likely scenario is recurring but contained flare-ups through early 2026, a more escalatory scenario remains plausible.

More Clashes, but Not Full-blown Conflict, Likely on the Cambodian-Thai Frontier

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U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

Global Trade

U.S.-China Relations

The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

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Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

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The Maanshan nuclear power plant is seen next to a beach in Pingtung, in southern Taiwan, on April 29, 2025.

Energy

The Weekly Rundown: Iran Meets With European Powers, Taiwan Holds a Nuclear Referendum

Located in Southeast Asia, Thailand is bordered by Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Malaysia. The core of modern Thailand lies on the flat, rich lowlands in the central Chao Phraya River basin. This basin is one of the world's most fertile agricultural areas, growing mostly rice and fruits. As a result, it became a political and economic center, where Bangkok, the country's capital, was founded.    Thailand’s strategic location between Indochina and the Andaman and South China seas, along with its agricultural resources, has historically made it a target of foreign invasion. Therefore, Thailand’s main geographic challenge is protecting its core from invaders while consolidating power in its diverse outlying regions.    Protected in the north by mountains and the Khorat Plateau, Thailand’s biggest external threats have come through the Tenasserim mountain range from Myanmar or from Cambodia to the east. But Thailand’s central location also helped prevent its colonization, as the French and British used it as a buffer between each other's empires.    Thailand’s geography has also presented internal challenges. In the northwest, mountainous terrain has prevented the area from being easily controlled, fostering political struggles in modern times between these provinces and Bangkok. Annexed in the early 20th century, southern Thailand has an ethnically Malay, Muslim majority and continues to resist Bangkok through low-level insurgency and violence. Although Thailand's size, location and arable land allow it to exert influence regionally, its unwieldy periphery and occasionally hostile neighbors will continue to present it with challenges.

Supply Chains

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

SITUATION REPORTS

Thailand: Bhumjaithai Election Victory Stabilizes Politics, Empowers Military

Cambodia, U.S.: State Department Official To Visit Phnom Penh

Thailand, Cambodia: Mortar Incident Highlights Ceasefire's Fragility

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok Releases Prisoners in Line With Ceasefire

Thailand, Cambodia: Ceasefire Talks Resume Under Thai Preconditions

Thailand, Cambodia: Ceasefire Talks To Resume Despite Ongoing Fighting

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok Reframes Border Conflict as Crackdown on Transnational Scam Networks

Thailand, Cambodia: Ceasefire Claims Fail as Clashes Spread

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