Belarus

Politics

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was declared winner of Belarus' presidential election with 87.6% of the votes, a record vote share for his 30 years in power, Reuters reported on Jan. 27.

Belarus: Lukashenko Set for Seventh Presidential Term Following Election

Ukraine

Russia

Military & Security

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed an interstate treaty that obliges the two countries to preserve the inviolability of the external border of the Union State, of which only Russia and Belarus are members, with the use of all available forces and means, including Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus, AP reported Dec. 6.

Belarus, Russia: Governments Sign Treaty on Mutual Security Guarantees

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The BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, adopted its summit declaration, which noted the creation of a BRICS "partner country" status, Reuters reported on Oct. 23.

BRICS: Bloc Creates Partner Status, Extends Status to 13 Countries

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The Belarusian parliament approved Jan. 26 as the date of Belarus' next presidential election, the Moscow Times reported Oct. 23.

Belarus: Date Set For 2025 Presidential Election 

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Russia is releasing eight political prisoners and eight citizens of Western governments in exchange for eight Russian intelligence officers and cybercriminals in the largest prisoner exchange between Russia and the West since the Cold War, CBS reported on Aug. 1. 

Russia, U.S.: Largest Prisoner Exchange Since Cold War Releases 24 People

The United States and Germany agreed at the NATO summit to deploy American intermediate-range missiles, most importantly Tomahawk and eventually hypersonic missiles once they finish testing, in Germany by 2026 for the first time since the Cold War, Reuters reported on July 11.

U.S., Russia, Germany: U.S. To Deploy Intermediate-Range Missiles in Germany

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U.S.-China Relations

In a July 10 presidential proclamation, U.S. President Joe Biden announced new 25% tariffs on steel entering the United States through Mexico that was not melted and poured in North America, as well as 10% tariffs on aluminum imported from Mexico that contained primary smelt from Belarus, China, Iran or Russia.

U.S.: New National Security Tariffs Target Chinese Steel, Aluminum Imports From Mexico

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Reporters Without Borders published its 2024 World Press Freedom Index, indicating that suppression of journalists and political attacks on the press have "significantly intensified" in the last year, The Guardian reported on May 3.

Global: Press Freedom Declines Amid Pivotal Elections Around the World

Assessments

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko gives a speech during his annual address to the Belarusian People and the National Assembly in Minsk on Jan. 28, 2022.

The upcoming All-Belarusian People's Assembly is poised to deepen Belarus' ties with Russia while also laying the groundwork for President Lukashenko's eventual succession process.

In Belarus, a Congress Will Lock in Integration With Russia -- and Lukashenko's Legacy

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On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

North Macedonia

Georgia

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identity and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

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Podcasts

What we know about the plane crash that likely killed Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin.


Essential Geopolitics: Prigozhin's Possible Death, the Future of the Wagner Group and Geopolitics in Belarus

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Lithuania

Latvia

A woman sits by the entrance to the GUM department store in central Minsk on February 14, 2023.

Though Belarus is showing economic recovery in the short term, a number of structural issues will undermine its long-term growth prospects.

Belarus' Tentative Recovery Won’t Ensure Future Growth -– Or Kick-Start the Opposition

Romania

A Polish soldier stands by anti-tank obstacles by the metal wall constructed at the Belarussian border in Bialowieza, Poland, on July 08, 2023. 

In Romania's case, Russian aggression is more likely to occur by accident. But in Poland, such aggression would have higher chance of escalation because it'd likely be by design.

Russia's Activities Near Romania and Poland Risk Sparking Another NATO Crisis

Burkina Faso

Central African Republic

Mali

Sudan

Libya

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

Members of Wagner Group on June 24, 2023, sit on a tank in a street in the city of Rostov-on-Don.

The dismantlement of Russia's Wagner Group will strengthen the Kremlin's ability to handle the war and conduct personnel changes that could impact Russia's strategy in Ukraine in the long run.

Putin Uses Prigozhin's 'Betrayal' to Strengthen His Grip on Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) meets with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in Sochi, Russia, on Sept. 26, 2022. 

Moscow's grip on Minsk will likely tighten in the years ahead, threatening Belarusian President Lukashenko and his country's sovereignty.

What's Ahead for Belarus-Russia Integration?

Sweden

Most Western insurers for marine traffic will stop providing coverage for war-related risks in Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian waters effective Jan. 1, 2023. The drop in coverage will result in some tankers refraining from sailing in Russian waters, even in Russia's Far East, or in tankers operating without insurance.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Insurers Drop Marine War Coverage in Russia, Sweden Takes Over the EU Presidency

Hong Kong SAR, China

France

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2022 Annual Forecast as 2023 Approaches

Peru

Europe

Supporters of former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo clash with riot police in Lima on Dec. 11, 2022, during a demonstration demanding Castillo's release and early legislative elections. 

The Weekly Rundown: Putin Visits Belarus, Peru Sets an Election Date Amid Protests

Belarus is a landlocked country located in Eastern Europe. The country is almost entirely flat with little in terms of geographic barriers or protective features. Belarus' borders to the east with Russia and to the west with Poland and Lithuania are virtually wide open. One exception though is the Pripet Marshes on its southern border with Ukraine. Due to the lack of these barriers and the presence of more powerful states in the region, Belarus has been historically a difficult independent state to sustain.    Belarus sits in the North European Plain, the geopolitical superhighway of Europe. This is the area that has historically been the prominent invasion route of European powers like Germany and France into Russia and vice versa. Russia took control of Belarus from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the 18th century, incorporating it into the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union.     Belarus was subject to Nazi occupation during WWII, in which the country lost more than 25 percent of its population, but then was reincorporated into the Soviet Union with the Germans’ defeat.The 20 years of independence since the fall of the Soviet Union is the longest Belarus has known in its modern history, but it still in many ways serves as a de facto buffer state between Russia and Europe.    Belarus was one of the most industrialized republics of the Soviet Union, and it still maintains a large industrial base centered in its capital city of Minsk. Belarus has fertile agricultural lands and is one of the world's leading producers of potash and other fertilizers. It is also a key trade and transit hub for Russian energy to Europe, making the country an enduring focus of competition between Russia and the West.

Mir Castle in the Minsk region of Belarus.

The Politics of Pipelines

Echoes of the Cold War

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

SITUATION REPORTS

Belarus: Lukashenko Set for Seventh Presidential Term Following Election

Belarus, Russia: Governments Sign Treaty on Mutual Security Guarantees

BRICS: Bloc Creates Partner Status, Extends Status to 13 Countries

Belarus: Date Set For 2025 Presidential Election

Russia, U.S.: Largest Prisoner Exchange Since Cold War Releases 24 People

U.S., Russia, Germany: U.S. To Deploy Intermediate-Range Missiles in Germany

U.S.: New National Security Tariffs Target Chinese Steel, Aluminum Imports From Mexico

Global: Press Freedom Declines Amid Pivotal Elections Around the World

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