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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was still waiting to hear back from Kyiv regarding Russia's proposal for a three-day ceasefire from May 8-10, while also saying Russia would not agree to an immediate 30-day ceasefire proposed by Ukraine until "nuances" are addressed, The Moscow Times reported on April 29.

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Pushes Back on Ukraine's Proposal for Immediate Ceasefire

The Kremlin announced on April 28 that it will implement a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine from May 8 to May 10 to observe the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Announces Three-Day Ceasefire in May Amid Pressure From White House

An improvised explosive device hidden in a car killed a senior Russian general, Lt. Gen. Yaroslav Moskalik, in a Moscow suburb, The Guardian reported on April 25. 

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Top Russian Commander Killed as Witkoff Meets With Putin

Europe

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom is considering dropping plans to deploy thousands of troops to Ukraine as part of a pan-European mission to provide Kyiv with post-conflict security guarantees, citing excessive risks and inadequate forces, The Times reported on April 25, citing British diplomatic and military sources.

Europe, Ukraine, Russia: London Weighs Watering Down Ukraine Reassurance Force Plans

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky cut short a trip to South Africa to return home after one of the largest Russian missile and drone attacks in months targeting Kyiv and other cities, Bloomberg reported April 24. 

Russia, Ukraine: Massive Russian Attack on Ukraine as Both Sides Trade Blame for Holding Up Peace Deal

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly told U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff during a meeting on April 11 in St. Petersburg that Russia was prepared to freeze its invasion along the current frontlines in Ukraine as part of an effort to reach a U.S.-mediated peace deal, the Finacial Times reported on April 22, citing people familiar with the officials’ discussion.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Reportedly Offered To Freeze Conflict Along Frontlines

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russian President Vladimir Putin was prepared to evaluate an offer from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop attacks against civilian infrastructure, The Guardian reported on April 22.

Russia, Ukraine: Leaders' Rhetoric Suggests Opening for Limited Ceasefire

Germany

France

France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said that European countries have communicated to the United States their key non-negotiable positions regarding any prospective peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, ahead of renewed talks scheduled for April 23 in London, Reuters reported April 22. 

Europe, Ukraine, U.S.: Europe Sets Red Lines on Ukraine Peace Deal

Snapshots

People walk past an electronic panel, promoting the contract service in the Russian armed forces, with a sign that reads "Our profession is to defend the Fatherland" in a shopping mall on May 11, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Economics

Russia is signaling it may welcome back Western companies, but strict conditions, ongoing sanctions and reputational risks are likely to deter a widespread return.

Russia Opens Door to Western Firms, But With Major Strings Attached

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

Assessments

Iran

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Armenia's foreign minister (2nd R) speaks during a meeting with his Azerbaijani and Kazakh counterparts in Almaty on May 10, 2024. 

A peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan is edging closer, but political delays in Yerevan postpone its implementation and leave the risk of renewed border tensions unresolved.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal Progresses, Though Hurdles Remain

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Second-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

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On Geopolitics

Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria. 

Any U.S. retrenchment away from Europe will more likely be gradual, shaped by strategic realities, shared interests and material constraints, but this transition will still carry profound military, economic and societal implications that will deeply reshape the Continent's security landscape and accelerate the transition to a truly multipolar world.

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington

Turkey

South Korea

People wave flags and chant slogans during a protest in front of the municipality headquarters in support of arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on March 19, 2025, in Istanbul, Turkey. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. To Announce Tariffs, Protests in Turkey Rage On

Brazil

Lebanon

Japan

Vietnam

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a joint press conference Feb. 16 at the prime minister's office in Jerusalem. Senior Israeli officials from the security and intelligence ministries will visit the United States to discuss Iran's nuclear program and Israeli border demarcation talks with Lebanon.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Israel Coordinate on Iran, the U.K. Chancellor Seeks Fiscal Discipline

Podcasts

How will these changes affect European countries?


Essential Geopolitics: The United States' Evolving Relationship With Russia

Ethiopia

Reichstag in Berlin with flags.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Russia Contacts on a Ukraine Ceasefire, a Vote on Reforming Germany’s Debt Brake

While a ceasefire appears increasingly likely, Russia will likely delay a deal to secure more concessions related to Western military support, a potential peacekeeping force in Ukraine, and Kyiv's NATO aspirations.

How Will Russia Respond to the U.S.-Proposed Ceasefire in Ukraine?

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

Milorad Dodik, leader of the most influential political party in the Bosnian-Serb dominated entity of Republika Srpska, on Oct. 27, 2022.

The arrest will test Bosnia's fragile institutional order amid rising regional and global instability, fueling concerns of a potential spillover of unrest across the Western Balkans.

The Arrest of a Serbian Official Puts Bosnian -- and Regional -- Stability to the Test

A photo taken on Jan. 15, 2025, shows a muddy track running through a forest in Sumy, Ukraine, that Ukrainian soldiers use to transport American Stryker armored fighting vehicles during Ukraine's ongoing cross-border operation into Russia's Kursk region.

Intensified Russian attacks will likely soon force Ukrainian troops to exit Russia's Kursk border region, which could make Moscow more open to ceasefire talks by weakening Kyiv's negotiating leverage.

Ukraine's Withdrawal From Kursk Appears Imminent Amid Russian Advances

<p>Despite being the largest country in the world by area, the Russian Federation occupies territory that is indefensible and unforgiving. The core of Russia, running from the Volga grain belts up through Moscow proper to the Baltic Sea, lacks any natural features to fortify it from attack. This is why the country has traditionally anchored its territory to major geographic barriers far from its core in an attempt to keep foreign powers distant. As a result, Russia has inevitably had to reach east across the frozen tundra of Siberia to the Pacific Ocean, southeast to the Tien Shen mountains of Central Asia, south to the Caucasus Mountains bordering Iran and Turkey, and finally west to the Carpathian Mountains in Central Europe. But, there is one major hole in this geographic expanse: The Northern European plane. The Northern European plane is a gap between the Carpathian Mountains and the Baltic sea which, at its narrowest, is 480 kilometers (300 miles) across. This narrow point, referred to as the Polish funnel, lies just West of Warsaw and reaches down Krakow in the south. Russia has faced three major attackers along this axis; Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Hitler. Most recently, the expansion of NATO and the European Union into Central and Eastern Europe has raised Russian hackles. Moscow would much prefer to control the lands between Russia and the Polish funnel &mdash; pushing as far west as possible &mdash; knowing full well that once an attacker has passed that narrow chokepoint, it is an open march to Russia&#39;s heartland. For this reason, Moscow seeks to occupy or influence its borderlands, or at the very least, maintain their neutrality. Looking beyond its indefensible borders and largely hollow interior, Russia boasts a diverse population of 144,463,450 people and a powerful military. These armed forces, backed by an autocratic political system, help protect the country&#39;s unwieldy land mass. Russia&#39;s economy is inherently fragile and highly dependent on commodity exports ranging from grain to energy. The country is traditionally at its most powerful when a strong, heavy-handed leader is in charge, such as current Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite this, though, the Kremlin must continually deal with internal political divisions, rising ethnic tensions and regional dissidence.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Pushes Back on Ukraine's Proposal for Immediate Ceasefire

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Announces Three-Day Ceasefire in May Amid Pressure From White House

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Top Russian Commander Killed as Witkoff Meets With Putin

Europe, Ukraine, Russia: London Weighs Watering Down Ukraine Reassurance Force Plans

Russia, Ukraine: Massive Russian Attack on Ukraine as Both Sides Trade Blame for Holding Up Peace Deal

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Reportedly Offered To Freeze Conflict Along Frontlines

Russia, Ukraine: Leaders' Rhetoric Suggests Opening for Limited Ceasefire

Europe, Ukraine, U.S.: Europe Sets Red Lines on Ukraine Peace Deal

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