France

Economics

Politics

The French Parliament rejected a no-confidence motion tabled by the far-left France Unbowed party (LFI) against Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's minority government for using Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to pass part of the social security budget without a vote, Le Monde reported Feb. 10. 

France: PM Bayrou Survives Another No-Confidence Vote Over 2025 Budget

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

France will commit 109 billion euros ($112.5 billion) in private sector artificial intelligence investments over the coming years, French President Emmanuel Macron announced in a broadcast with France 2 on Feb. 9.

France: Macron Announces 109B Euro Investment in AI

Cyber

France and India will cohost the AI Action Summit in Paris on Feb. 10-11, during which attendees will look broadly at artificial intelligence risks such as environmental impact, income inequality and bias, Reuters reported on Feb. 10. 

Cyberspace, France: AI Action Summit Held in Paris

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou survived a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly after only 128 lawmakers (primarily from the far left) voted in favor of deposing him, short of the 289 votes needed, France 24 reported on Feb. 5. 

France: Bayrou's Minority Government Survives No-Confidence Vote

What Happened: French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou said he would trigger Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to force the 2025 budget bill through Parliament without a vote, paving the way for a no-confidence motion from opposition parties, Le Monde reported on Feb. 2.

France: Government's Attempt To Force Budget Through Parliament Triggers No-Confidence Motion

Chad

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Russia

Military & Security

France completed the withdrawal of its military forces from Chad, Africanews reported on Jan 30.

Chad, France: France Hands Over Last Army Base in Chad

United States

Europe

Germany

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz described U.S. President Donald Trump's return to the White House as a "challenge" during a joint press conference in Paris, France, but emphasized Europe’s strength, unity and determination while remaining a "constructive and self-confident partner" for the United States, Reuters reported on Jan. 22.

France, Germany: Lame Ducks Macron and Scholz Pledge Unity in Dealing With Trump's U.S.

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou announced during his inaugural policy speech in the National Assembly that he would "renegotiate" President Emmanuel Macron's contentious pension reform with labor unions and opposition parties in the coming months, but he stated the pension law would continue to apply in its current form without an agreement, Reuters reported on Jan. 14.

France: Government Opens to Renegotiation of Macron's Pension Reform

Snapshots

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (center) addresses the National Assembly in Paris, France, on Feb. 5, 2025, ahead of a vote on a no-confidence motion against him. 

The approval of a budget for 2025 averts an immediate political crisis and offers short-term relief to markets, yet France's politics are still unstable and its medium-term fiscal policy direction remains uncertain.

France Passes Its 2025 Budget, but Political and Economic Challenges Persist

Assessments

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Indonesia

India

The West Front of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 17 in Washington. Donald Trump will be inaugurated as U.S. president on Jan. 20.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Gaza Ceasefire, Trump's Inauguration

Mozambique

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Anti-riot police officers with dogs walk past burning barricades made by protesters in Maputo, Mozambique, on Nov. 7, 2024. 

The Weekly Rundown: A New French Government, a Ruling on Mozambique's Disputed Election

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

(From left to right) Argentine President Javier Milei, Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena pose for a photo during the Mercosur summit in Montevideo on Dec. 6, 2024. 

The agreement offers significant market access and diversification opportunities for both trade blocs, but it also faces a complex ratification process and potential political backlash in Europe.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Ghana

Iran

South Korea

Protesters call for the ouster of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol outside the National Assembly in Seoul on Dec. 6, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Vote in South Korea, Syria's Government Wavers

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

The U.S. and EU flags.

Energy

Global Elections

Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. 

What Trump's Return to Office Means for the European Union

Columns

On Geopolitics

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

Media

Mexico

China

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Italy

A Russian warship transits the Neva River in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

Russia's risk tolerance for physical and cyber operations against Western targets appears to be increasing, raising the likelihood of more disruptive and/or violent attacks.

A More Brazen Russia Slowly Raises the Specter of a NATO Confrontation

Incoming Prime Minister Michel Barnier (R) delivers a speech next to outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Sept. 5 in Paris. Barnier will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly.

France's new prime minister will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly. While the government will still have options to reduce the country's fiscal deficit and avoid a financial crisis, these would come at the cost of severe social unrest and political volatility.

France's New Prime Minister Will Struggle to Pass Laws and Avoid Financial Woes

<p>France is a country in Western Europe bound in the south by the Alps, Pyrenees Mountains and the Mediterranean Sea. To the west and north is the Atlantic Ocean, and on its eastern border lies the river Rhine and the low mountains of the Ardennes, Vosges and Jura. Mountains, rivers and seas help protect France at all points but one: the North European Plain. As a result, France&#39;s main geographic challenge is safeguarding its eastern border on the path of this historic invasion route. The lack of internal geographic barriers contributed to France&#39;s social cohesion, which in turn led France to become one of the world&#39;s first modern nation-states. The Beauce region represents France&#39;s core. Its navigable rivers, warm climate, sufficient rainfall and fertile soils have made France one of the world&#39;s leading agricultural powers. At the extreme northern border of the Beauce region, where the rivers Marne and Seine meet, lies Paris &mdash; France&#39;s economic and political center. Paris&#39; strategic location on these rivers gives it administrative control of trading routes from the Beauce region to the rest of France and Europe In modern times, the most existential threats to France have come from its powerful eastern neighbor, Germany. Between 1871 and 1945, France and Germany fought three major wars &mdash; all on the North European Plain. After World War II, France attempted to contain Germany largely through the creation of the European Union. The economic and political crisis plaguing Europe has put France&#39;s containment strategy into question.</p>

EU: Regional Blocs

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The Fate of the Eurozone

European Disintegration

SITUATION REPORTS

France: PM Bayrou Survives Another No-Confidence Vote Over 2025 Budget

France: Macron Announces 109B Euro Investment in AI

Cyberspace, France: AI Action Summit Held in Paris

France: Bayrou's Minority Government Survives No-Confidence Vote

France: Government's Attempt To Force Budget Through Parliament Triggers No-Confidence Motion

Chad, France: France Hands Over Last Army Base in Chad

France, Germany: Lame Ducks Macron and Scholz Pledge Unity in Dealing With Trump's U.S.

France: Government Opens to Renegotiation of Macron's Pension Reform

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