Poland

Politics

Liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski from Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition won the first round of Poland's presidential election on May 18 with 31.4% of the vote, ahead of conservative challenger Karol Nawrocki, backed by the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, who secured 29.5%, Reuters reported May 19.

Poland: Government Candidate Trzaskowski Will Face PiS in Presidential Election Runoff

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

EU ambassadors approved a new package of sanctions on Russia, the 17th since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with measures including visa bans and asset freezes on senior Russian officials, export bans on dual-use chemicals and restrictions targeting dozens of companies accused of sanctions evasion, Politico reported May 14. 

EU, Russia: EU Ambassadors Approve 17th Package of Sanctions Against Russia

Poland will close the Russian consulate in Krakow after obtaining evidence that Moscow's intelligence services were behind a major arson attack at a Warsaw mall last May, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski announced in a post on X on May 12.

Poland, Russia: Warsaw Closes Russian Consulate Over Sabotage Accusations

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Energy

France and Poland signed a wide-ranging bilateral defense, economic and energy cooperation treaty on May 9 in Nancy, France, Reuters reported the same day.

France, Poland: Governments Pledge Defense Cooperation, Nuclear-Sharing Discussions

Slovakia

European natural gas prices are fluctuating near monthly highs in anticipation for the Ukraine-Russia gas transit agreement's expiration on Dec. 31 and colder weather in the coming days and weeks, Bloomberg reported Dec. 30.

EU, Russia, Ukraine: Volatile European Gas Prices Ahead of Anticipated End to Ukraine-Russia Transit Agreement

French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Warsaw, Poland, on Dec. 12 to discuss with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk the hypothetical deployment of a post-war peacekeeping force to Ukraine that would preserve Ukrainian sovereignty in the event of a deal between incoming U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war, Politico reported on Dec. 11.

Ukraine, France: Macron To Pitch Deployment to Ukraine as Part of Post-War Security Guarantee

Americas

Europe

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he will not endorse a free trade agreement close to finalization between the European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc, joining French President Emmanuel Macron in his vocal opposition to the deal, the Financial Times reported Nov. 27.

Poland: Country Joins France in Open Opposition to EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Social Issues

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Oct. 12 that Poland will temporarily suspend the right to claim asylum in the country and will not implement the European Union's new migration and asylum pact during a rally of his Civic Platform (KO) party, the largest in Poland's ruling coalition, Reuters reported Oct. 14.

Poland: Tusk Proposes Temporary Suspension of Asylum Rights

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A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A U.S. Tariff Ruling, Israel's Opposition Seeks To Dissolve the Knesset

Snapshots

Right-wing opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki waves to supporters in Warsaw, Poland, following the presidential runoff election on June 1, 2025.

Global Elections

The incoming conservative president will likely veto many of the centrist government's domestic reforms, while his euroskeptic views will sustain foreign policy incoherence, potentially undermining Poland's economic outlook and its credibility as a regional leader.

Poland Braces for More Political Gridlock Following Nawrocki's Presidential Victory

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Ukrainian, U.S. and Russian delegates meet for peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 16, 2025. 

The Weekly Rundown: Ukraine-Russia Talks, Mexico's First-Ever Judicial Elections

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on May 21 during an official trip to the United States.

The Weekly Rundown: South Africa's U.S. Reset, Three European Elections

Supporters of the PiS party demonstrate April 12 in Warsaw, Poland. Poland will hold a presidential election May 18 and runoff June 1 if no candidate obtains more than 50% in the first round.

The outcome of Poland's election will determine whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist government will coexist with a cooperative president or continue to face institutional constraints from an ideologically opposed president.

Poland's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

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On Geopolitics

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NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe’s security architecture. 

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe

Bolivia

Moldova

A natural gas distribution hub is seen near Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: Poland Assumes the EU Presidency, Russia-Ukraine Gas Transit Deal Expires

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on July 2 in Warsaw.

Poland's ongoing political volatility will continue to create policy and economic uncertainty leading up to the presidential election in mid-2025. If this persists after the election, it could have long-term negative effects on the country's appeal to investors.

Political Polarization Fuels Uncertainty Ahead of Poland's 2025 Presidential Election

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People attend an April 5, 2024, funeral procession for seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in an Israeli strike in Syria.

The Weekly Rundown: The Threat of Iranian Retaliation Against Israel, Polish Local Elections

Polish President Andrzej Duda (left) and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (right) shake hands during their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw, Poland, on Jan. 15, 2024. 

Growing tensions between the new government and key institutions still loyal to its predecessor will fuel political instability and may ultimately threaten Warsaw's plans to unlock frozen EU funds.

A Rough Power Transition Thrusts Poland Into a Political Crisis

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

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Members of the European Parliament take part in voting on the Artificial Intelligence Act during a plenary session at the European Parliament.

Cyber

The EU's recently negotiated Artificial Intelligence Act will bolster the European Union's dominance as a regulatory heavyweight in emerging technologies, yet anticipated enforcement challenges and stringent stipulations with the Act risk impeding AI innovation within the bloc.

EU Lawmakers Clinch Agreement on Artificial Intelligence Act 

<p>Poland sits at the crossroads of Eastern and Western Europe. Located on the Northern European Plain, the country has a largely flat terrain with few geographic barriers &mdash; with the exception of the Baltic Sea to the north and the Carpathian Mountains in the extreme south. From the 15th to the 18th century, Poland was among the largest and most influential states in Europe. As the leading power of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Poland controlled territory that includes modern day Belarus, Ukraine, the Baltic states, and parts of western Russia. However, the emergence of Germanic powers to the west and Russia to the east proved disastrous for Poland, as the country was partitioned between the Russian, Prussian, and Austrian Empires at the end of the 18th century. Poland was then the setting of numerous wars for influence among European powers, proving a key battleground during World War I and II before being swept into the Soviet bloc during the Cold War. Poland returned to the Western fold once the Soviet Union collapsed, with the country joining NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004. Since then, Poland &mdash; with its demographic and industrial core in Warsaw &mdash; has been one of the most economically dynamic countries of the former Eastern bloc. The current crisis in Ukraine, as well as Poland&#39;s continued fear of Russia, has made Warsaw a pivotal player in the standoff between Moscow and the West. The country has sought to strengthen the presence of NATO on its territory and is a key part of the bloc&#39;s ballistic missile defense program. Poland has also sought to bring key countries in the former Soviet periphery, most notably Ukraine, closer to the West. Using these strategies to maintain territorial integrity is Poland&rsquo;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Poland: Government Candidate Trzaskowski Will Face PiS in Presidential Election Runoff

EU, Russia: EU Ambassadors Approve 17th Package of Sanctions Against Russia

Poland, Russia: Warsaw Closes Russian Consulate Over Sabotage Accusations

France, Poland: Governments Pledge Defense Cooperation, Nuclear-Sharing Discussions

EU, Russia, Ukraine: Volatile European Gas Prices Ahead of Anticipated End to Ukraine-Russia Transit Agreement

Ukraine, France: Macron To Pitch Deployment to Ukraine as Part of Post-War Security Guarantee

Poland: Country Joins France in Open Opposition to EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Poland: Tusk Proposes Temporary Suspension of Asylum Rights

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