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The United States is "seriously" considering Iran's proposal for indirect nuclear talks through Omani intermediaries, Axios reported on April 2, citing two U.S. officials. 

U.S., Iran: Trump Administration Weighs Iran's Offer of Indirect Nuclear Talks 

Energy

Military & Security

U.S.-Iran Relations

U.S. President Donald Trump warned that if Iran does not reach a nuclear deal with the United States, "there will be bombing" and so-called secondary tariffs on Iranian oil, according to a March 30 interview with Axios.

Iran: Trump Threatens To Place Secondary Tariffs, Bomb Iran Absent a Nuclear Deal

China

Economics

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (Luqing Petrochemical), a small Chinese "teapot" oil refinery in Shandong that operates independently of the Chinese state, and its CEO over buying and refining "hundreds of millions of dollars" worth of Iranian oil, OFAC said in a March 20 press release. 

China: U.S. Sanctions Chinese 'Teapot' Oil Refiner Over Iran for First Time

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rebuked U.S. President Donald Trump's attempt to kickstart negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, Reuters reported on March 8.

Iran: Supreme Leader Rebukes Trump's Call for Nuclear Negotiations

Iraq

The United States failed to renew a sanctions waiver allowing Iraq to buy electricity from Iraq, letting the waiver expire, Bloomberg reported on March 8.

Iraq: U.S. Ends Iraq's Waiver To Import Iranian Electricity

Lebanon

Syria

Turkey

Insurgents linked to former Syrian President Bashar al Assad launched attacks across Latakia on March 6-7, taking control of highways, parts of Latakia city and other strategic sites throughout the province in a coordinated assault, AP reported on March 7.

Syria: Provisional Government Faces Down Alawite Uprising in Latakia

U.S. President Donald Trump said he sent a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressing an interest in negotiating a nuclear deal, according to a Fox Business interview with Trump that aired on March 7. 

Iran: Trump Writes Letter to Khamenei Expressing Interest in New Nuclear Deal

The United States is discussing a plan under which its allies would inspect tankers at sea carrying Iranian oil as Washington attempts to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero, Reuters reported on March 6.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Wants Allies To Interdict Tankers Carrying Iranian Oil

Assessments

Brazil

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Japan

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Russia

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a joint press conference Feb. 16 at the prime minister's office in Jerusalem. Senior Israeli officials from the security and intelligence ministries will visit the United States to discuss Iran's nuclear program and Israeli border demarcation talks with Lebanon.

Global Trade

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Israel Coordinate on Iran, the U.K. Chancellor Seeks Fiscal Discipline

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A rally on Jan. 24 in Sanaa, the Houthi-controlled capital of Yemen. Should the United States attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Houthi rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Should the United States also attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Yemeni rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations. 

U.S. Strikes on Houthis Risk Embroiling Iran and the Regional Energy Industry

A billboard showing Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is seen in Baghdad, Iraq, on Oct. 7, 2024.

New U.S.-Iran talks are unlikely to make headway, if they begin at all, due to distrust and a mutual unwillingness to compromise, which could see the U.S. or Israel resort to military strikes on Iran's nuclear program.

Despite Trump's Push for Talks, a New U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Remains Unlikely

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan welcomes his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani before attending an Arab officials' meeting in Riyadh on Jan. 12, 2025.

Saudi Arabia's re-engagement with Lebanon, Syria and Iraq aims to counterbalance Turkey, Qatar and Iran but faces limits due to sectarian politics and foreign interference, which may make Riyadh more assertive over time.

Saudi Arabia Moves To Counterbalance Turkey and Qatar, Replace Iran in the Levant

Europe

Cyber

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Algeria

Jordan

Kuwait

Tunisia

Taiwan

Belarus

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Palestinian Territories

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Elections

Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

India

The Geopolitics of Water

Water utilities are uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks due to frequent financial and security limitations, exposing water-stressed countries to threats from hacktivists and foreign adversaries.

 The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond

Israeli tanks and armored vehicles line up the area outside the Druze village of Majdal Shams on the fence with the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights from the rest of Syria on Dec. 9, 2024.

Israel's efforts to mitigate threats from war-torn Syria will risk triggering domestic and international blowback, and opening the door to a proxy conflict with Turkey.

Israel Expands Its Presence in Post-Assad Syria 

Columns

On Geopolitics

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

An anti-regime fighter tears off a poster depicting Syrian President Bashar al Assad (left) and his brother Maher at the airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Dec. 2, 2024. 

With its proxy network weakened, developing nuclear weapons will become a more attractive option for Iran as it tries to rebuild deterrence against the U.S. and Israel.

Assad's Fall in Syria Deals Another Blow to Iran's Axis of Resistance

Snapshots

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Iran sits at the crossroads of the Islamic world. Linking the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central and South Asia, Iran has struggled to balance the benefits and risks of its geographic position.    Iran's core is located in the western Zagros mountain range. From this secure geography, the beginnings of the Persian Empire spread throughout Iran's mountainous topography securing the Alborz, the southern Zagros and much of the Iranian plateau.    Iran's primary geographic challenge has been to secure itself from the many external threats on its borders. Arabs, Mongols and Turks all conquered ancient Persia at various times, prompting Persia to expand its territorial control whenever possible to establish a buffer to protect its core.    At its height, the Persian Empire stretched from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush mountains, bridging modern-day Europe and Asia. Echoes of this former empire can be seen even today, with Iran's support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the al Assad regime in Damascus and the Shiite-led government in Iraq.    Iran has also struggled to unite and control the various language and ethnic groups located within its core territories, a process impeded by the country's difficult terrain. Modern-day Tehran is aided by its large hydrocarbon reserves; Iran boasts the fourth-largest oil reserves and largest natural gas reserves in the world. The 20th century saw British, Russian and American interests competing not only to control Iran's strategic geographic location, but its significant energy reserves as well.    This modern-day reliance on energy revenues has resulted in Iran's focus on securing the Strait of Hormuz and expanding control over the Persian Gulf to secure its core territories from the threat of outside invasion.

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Iran: Trump Administration Weighs Iran's Offer of Indirect Nuclear Talks

Iran: Trump Threatens To Place Secondary Tariffs, Bomb Iran Absent a Nuclear Deal

China: U.S. Sanctions Chinese 'Teapot' Oil Refiner Over Iran for First Time

Iran: Supreme Leader Rebukes Trump's Call for Nuclear Negotiations

Iraq: U.S. Ends Iraq's Waiver To Import Iranian Electricity

Syria: Provisional Government Faces Down Alawite Uprising in Latakia

Iran: Trump Writes Letter to Khamenei Expressing Interest in New Nuclear Deal

U.S., Iran: U.S. Wants Allies To Interdict Tankers Carrying Iranian Oil

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