Israel

Lebanon

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The Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, will remain at five strategic outposts in southern Lebanon despite the Feb. 18 withdrawal deadline due to Israel's worries about the Lebanese Armed Forces' constrained willingness and ability to enforce Hezbollah's disarmament, CNN reported on Feb. 18.

Israel, Lebanon: IDF To Remain in Lebanon Past Withdrawal Deadline

Lebanon's new Prime Minister Nawaf Salam formed a Cabinet of 24 ministers, including four Shiites whom the Amal Movement party (an ally of the political and militant group Hezbollah) named, as well as a fifth Shiite whom Salam picked, Reuters reported on Feb. 8.

Lebanon: Prime Minister Forms Government, Pledges Reforms and UNSC 1701

United States

The Israeli air force struck a pair of targets deep inside Lebanon that it claimed were Hezbollah weapons storage sites set up in violation of the November 2024 ceasefire, although both strikes occurred in areas outside Israel's demanded disarmament zone, The Times of Israel reported on Feb. 7.

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Struggles Against Israeli Strikes, U.S. 'Red Line'

The United States said the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire that stopped the war between Hezbollah and Israel will remain effective until Feb. 18, Reuters reported on Jan. 26. 

Lebanon, Israel: Ceasefire Agreement Between Lebanon and Israel To Continue Until Feb. 18

Economics

Lebanon's National Assembly elected former commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces Joseph Aoun as the country's 14th president, Reuters reported on Jan. 9. 

Lebanon: National Assembly Elects Former Army Commander as New President

Syria

The Israeli military confirmed that it had been conducting "operational raids" in Syria on Mount Hermon over the past several weeks, The New York Times reported on Jan. 5. 

Israel, Syria: Israel Conducts Operational Raids in Syria

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Israeli forces advanced further into southern Lebanon's Wadi al-Hujeir area on Dec. 26, conducting sweeping operations and deploying heavy machine gun fire before retreating later to Wadi al-Slouki, according to a same-day report by Anadolu Agency.

Israel, Lebanon: IDF Forces Advance Further Into Southern Lebanon, Violating Ceasefire

In a surprise visit to Syria, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Dec. 17 that Israel would remain on Mount Hermon beyond the demilitarized zone that separates Israel's occupied Golan Heights from Syria proper for the immediate future, Reuters reported on Dec. 18.

Israel, Syria, Lebanon: Israel To Stay at Mount Hermon, IDF Ejects Israeli Settlers From Lebanon

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Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan welcomes his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani before attending an Arab officials' meeting in Riyadh on Jan. 12, 2025.

Saudi Arabia's re-engagement with Lebanon, Syria and Iraq aims to counterbalance Turkey, Qatar and Iran but faces limits due to sectarian politics and foreign interference, which may make Riyadh more assertive over time.

Saudi Arabia Moves To Counterbalance Turkey and Qatar, Replace Iran in the Levant

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Damage on Feb. 13 in the Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza.

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A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Mideast Ceasefires and Arab Gaza Proposals, the AU Summit

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The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his wife Jeanette Rubio arrive at the State Department in Washington, D.C., to speak to employees on Jan. 21, 2025. 

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Expires, Rubio Tours Latin America

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in a village in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025. 

Political and security imperatives will deter Israel from fully withdrawing from southern Lebanon by the Jan. 26 deadline outlined in its ceasefire with Hezbollah, which will risk provoking renewed Hezbollah attacks.

The Risks of a Delayed Israeli Withdrawal From Lebanon

Egypt

A smoke plume rises above destroyed buildings in northern Gaza on Jan. 13, 2025.

The truce will improve Israel's ties with Lebanon and Egypt, but eventual violations could reignite regional tensions, as could Israel's intensified counter-insurgency operations in the West Bank.

The Regional Implications of the Gaza Ceasefire

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Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro waits for the arrival of other heads of state of members of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America regional trading bloc during the XXIV ALBA-TCP Summit in Caracas, Venezuela, on Dec. 14, 2024. 

The Weekly Rundown: Inaugurations in Ghana and Venezuela, Yoon's Potential Arrest in South Korea

Walid Jumblatt, the Druze former leader of Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party, and his son and current party head, Taymur Jumblatt, meet with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, interim prime minister Mohammad al-Bashir and other Druze leaders during a Dec. 22 visit to Damascus, Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's leadership in Syria will likely embolden Islamists in both Lebanon and Jordan, while Syria's turbulent political transition will likely prompt another wave of refugees into both neighboring countries.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's leadership in Syria will likely embolden Islamists in both Lebanon and Jordan, while Syria's turbulent political transition will likely prompt another wave of refugees into both neighboring countries.

Gauging the Regional Fallout of Syrian Regime Change

Snapshots

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

A fireball erupts from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, on Nov. 25, 2024.

To consolidate its gains, Israel will keep conducting targeted strikes against Hezbollah under the guise of ceasefire enforcement, fueling more tit-for-tat exchanges that could ultimately reignite full-scale hostilities. 

Will the Hezbollah-Israel Truce Collapse?

Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. 

Mutual war-weariness and U.S. pressure have driven Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day truce, though periodic tit-for-tat strikes could undermine the cease-fire and hope for a permanent one.

What to Expect From Israel and Hezbollah's Truce

A picture taken on Sept. 30, 2024, shows a fire over an area of southern Lebanon following an Israeli bombardment. 

A long war of attrition would likely favor Hezbollah, though Israel could still emerge victorious if it sustains enough domestic and international support for its military campaign in Lebanon.

How Will the Israel-Hezbollah War Evolve?

Lebanon is a small country wedged against the Mediterranean Sea, with Syria to its east and Israel to its south. The country is divided by the western Lebanon Mountains and the eastern Anti-Lebanon Mountains, which also run through Syria. These mountains produce three geographic and climate ranges for the country: hot and dry in the east and mild and wetter in the west, with the fertile Bekaa Valley in the midlands providing much of the country's agriculture. The cluster of mountains itself is friendly to the growth of cedar trees, the country's national icon.    Because of its small size, Lebanon is forced to import much of the food it needs to feed its population. Thus it has long been a center of trade, with coastal cities like Beirut acting as gateways for east-wide trade routes. It's a necessity for Lebanon to keep access to these trade routes. However, because the country is so small, outside powers have found it very easy to exert influence, especially given Lebanon's internal demographic divisions. Foreign powers can often find allies in Lebanon, though they rarely can find enough friendly forces to control the entire country, leading to frequent split governments and regular civil strife.     Lebanon's greatest challenge, therefore, is to keep access to its trade routes while balancing its own divisions, which are manipulated by outside powers. It has not always succeeded, and the country's 1975-1990 civil war is only the latest major conflict that has arisen from these conditions. In the future, Lebanon will continue to struggle with precariously balancing its small size, its divided population and its ambitious neighbors. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Lebanon: IDF To Remain in Lebanon Past Withdrawal Deadline

Lebanon: Prime Minister Forms Government, Pledges Reforms and UNSC 1701

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Struggles Against Israeli Strikes, U.S. 'Red Line'

Lebanon, Israel: Ceasefire Agreement Between Lebanon and Israel To Continue Until Feb. 18

Lebanon: National Assembly Elects Former Army Commander as New President

Israel, Syria: Israel Conducts Operational Raids in Syria

Israel, Lebanon: IDF Forces Advance Further Into Southern Lebanon, Violating Ceasefire

Israel, Syria, Lebanon: Israel To Stay at Mount Hermon, IDF Ejects Israeli Settlers From Lebanon

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