Mali

Canada

Turkey

Russia

Economics

Canadian mining company Barrick Gold signed a new agreement to resolve a nearly two-year dispute over its mining operations in Mali, although the junta has yet to approve the deal formally, Reuters reported on Feb. 19. 

Mali: Barrick Gold Claims Agreement With Malian Junta To End Mining Dispute

Ethiopia

Somalia

Military & Security

Politics

Ethiopia and Somalia began holding their first round of technical talks over Ethiopia's quest to secure maritime access through Somalia in Turkey, Addis Standard reported on Feb. 18.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Governments Begin Technical Talks Over Maritime Access 

United States

Syria

The U.S. Department of Defense is reportedly preparing for a full U.S. withdrawal from Syria, NBC reported on Feb. 5.

U.S., Syria: DOD Preparing Plans for Full U.S. Withdrawal From Syria

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Syria's provisional President Ahmad al-Sharaa visited Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, marking his first trip abroad and his first meeting with the kingdom's de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman, AP reported on Feb. 2.

Syria, Saudi Arabia: Al-Sharaa Visits Saudi Arabia as Damascus Deepens Gulf Ties

Chad

France

France completed the withdrawal of its military forces from Chad, Africanews reported on Jan 30.

Chad, France: France Hands Over Last Army Base in Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proposed to mediate the conflict between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda during a meeting with Rwandan President Paul Kagame, the Daily Sabah reported on Jan. 24.

Congo, Rwanda: Turkey Offers To Mediate Conflict as Fighting Escalates

In an interview with Turkish broadcaster A Haber, Ahmad al-Sharaa, the de facto leader of Syria's provisional government, said Syria might turn to Turkey to combat the remnants of the Islamic State, the Daily Sabah reported on Jan. 24.

South Africa: Miners Mull Investments in Railways To Turn Around Freight Transport

Syria's Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra rejected a proposal by the U.S.-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, to maintain its own "military bloc" if it integrated into the Syrian Defense Ministry, Reuters reported on Jan. 19. 

Syria: Damascus Rejects SDF-Led Proposal for Partial Military Integration

Assessments

Iran

Iraq

Lebanon

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan welcomes his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani before attending an Arab officials' meeting in Riyadh on Jan. 12, 2025.

Saudi Arabia's re-engagement with Lebanon, Syria and Iraq aims to counterbalance Turkey, Qatar and Iran but faces limits due to sectarian politics and foreign interference, which may make Riyadh more assertive over time.

Saudi Arabia Moves To Counterbalance Turkey and Qatar, Replace Iran in the Levant

Fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stand atop a humvee in Syria's northeastern Hasakah province during a joint military exercise with the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State on Sept. 7, 2022.

The threat of a Turkish offensive and decreasing U.S. aid will increasingly pressure the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces to reach a deal with Syria's new government. 

The Uncertain Future of U.S.-Backed Kurds in Syria

Columns

On Geopolitics

Israel

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Ecuador

Mexico

Algeria

Jordan

Kuwait

Tunisia

Yemen

China

Taiwan

Ukraine

Belarus

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Abu Mohammed al-Golani (C), the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks during a press conference near Syria's northern Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey late on March 12, 2024.

Rival Gulf Arab states will pursue divergent goals amid Syria's evolving political transition, raising the likelihood of factionalism and resurging violence in the war-torn country. 

Gulf States' Competing Interests Could Disrupt Syria's Political Transition

Palestinian Territories

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Elections

Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Media

Podcasts

What can Trump's nominees for positions in Middle Eastern diplomacy tell us about his approach to the region?

Essential Geopolitics: U.S.-Middle East Relations Under a Second Trump Term

Israeli tanks and armored vehicles line up the area outside the Druze village of Majdal Shams on the fence with the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights from the rest of Syria on Dec. 9, 2024.

Israel's efforts to mitigate threats from war-torn Syria will risk triggering domestic and international blowback, and opening the door to a proxy conflict with Turkey.

Israel Expands Its Presence in Post-Assad Syria 

A man carries a Turkish national flag as Turkey-backed Syrian fighters gather along the frontlines opposite Kurdish forces near the town of Dadat in Syria's northern Aleppo province, on July 5, 2022. 

Turkey will seek to exert its influence over Syria's new leaders to prevent Kurdish autonomy, promote Turkish business interests and facilitate the return of refugees.

Turkey Is Poised to Reap the Benefits of a New Order in Syria

An illustration of the Ethiopian and Somali flags.

The countries’ commitment to negotiate maritime access reduces immediate conflict risks and could enable Ethiopia to secure leasing rights at Somali ports, but tensions will likely resurge if the two sides fail to finalize a deal.

Ethiopia and Somalia Crack Open the Door To Compromise on Maritime Access

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

An anti-regime fighter tears off a poster depicting Syrian President Bashar al Assad (left) and his brother Maher at the airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Dec. 2, 2024. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

With its proxy network weakened, developing nuclear weapons will become a more attractive option for Iran as it tries to rebuild deterrence against the U.S. and Israel.

Assad's Fall in Syria Deals Another Blow to Iran's Axis of Resistance

<p>The Republic of Turkey straddles Europe and Asia, forming a land bridge that links the Levant, Iran and the Caucasus with Southeastern Europe. In stark contrast to its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, modern Turkey is confined largely to the semi-arid, mountainous terrain of the Anatolian Peninsula and the capital-rich lands surrounding the Sea of Marmara. This low-lying region contains the large cities of Istanbul and Izmir and the two chokepoints linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean &mdash; the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. This area is the core of Turkey&#39;s population and economy. Turkey&rsquo;s geographic challenge is expanding the economic stability and development of this core into the eastern region of the country. Anatolia&rsquo;s rugged geography and mountainous terrain make economic and infrastructure development difficult, but has historically helped to prevent land invasions from the east and south. Modern Turkey is working to integrate this largely rural, poorer hinterland into the political and economic mainstream in an attempt to link its current Islamist government to its neighbors in the broader Middle East. However, significant challenges remain. Turkey has fought a decades-long Kurdish insurgency in its southeastern regions, where the Taurus Mountains and the Eastern Anatolian plateau give sanctuary to Kurdish separatist militants. Turkey&rsquo;s position at the crossroads between East and West provides the country with several geopolitical possibilities. The country is working to serve as a transit state linking the exports of its energy-rich eastern neighbors to consumer markets in Europe. Its location also invites a series of constraints, as reflected by Turkey&rsquo;s position surrounded by Europe&rsquo;s economic decline, Iranian ambitions in Syria and Iraq, and Russian interests in the Caucasus.</p>

Turkey's Resurgence

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SITUATION REPORTS

Mali: Barrick Gold Claims Agreement With Malian Junta To End Mining Dispute

Ethiopia, Somalia: Governments Begin Technical Talks Over Maritime Access

U.S., Syria: DOD Preparing Plans for Full U.S. Withdrawal From Syria

Syria, Saudi Arabia: Al-Sharaa Visits Saudi Arabia as Damascus Deepens Gulf Ties

Chad, France: France Hands Over Last Army Base in Chad

Congo, Rwanda: Turkey Offers To Mediate Conflict as Fighting Escalates

South Africa: Miners Mull Investments in Railways To Turn Around Freight Transport

Syria: Damascus Rejects SDF-Led Proposal for Partial Military Integration

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