Sudan

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Military & Security

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Ahmed Haroun, the former head of Sudan’s banned National Congress Party, or NCP, said the Islamist movement could support prolonged rule by the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, following a hypothetical end of Sudan’s civil war, Reuters reported on July 25. 

Sudan: Islamists Hint at Long-Term Partnership With SAF

Somalia

Turkey

Somalia's federal government accused the autonomous state of Puntland of "hijacking" the Comoros-flagged MV Sea World vessel, which was reportedly transporting Turkish weapons bound to Turkey's Camp TURKSOM in Mogadishu, and called for the immediate release of the ship from Bosaso port, The Defense Post reported on July 24.

Somalia: Turkish Arms Seizure Heightens Tensions Between Federal Government and Puntland

Armenia

Azerbaijan

 Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met in the United Arab Emirates to discuss their countries' normalization process, Armenpress reported on July 10. 

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Leaders Meet in Abu Dhabi, Pledge To Continue Talking

Europe

Economics

EU lawmakers voted to remove the United Arab Emirates and seven other countries from the European Union's money laundering "grey list," the Financial Times reported on July 9. 

EU, UAE: EU To Remove UAE From Money Laundering 'Grey List'

Ethiopia

Nigeria

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Uganda

Brazil

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Iran

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Russia

India

BRICS+ leaders gathered in Brazil for the bloc's 17th summit and issued a joint statement defending multilateralism, calling for U.N. reform and supporting Russia's and Iran's positions in ongoing conflicts, g1 reported on July 6.

BRICS+: Bloc Increasingly Leans Away From West, but Avoids Picking Fights With U.S.

Kenya

The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, found crates of ammunition and mortar bombs ordered by the Kenyan Ministry of Defense and dated from 2023 and 2024 in recaptured weapon depots belonging to Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, Daily Nation and Bellingcat reported on June 15.

Sudan: Nairobi To Face Global Scrutiny as Kenyan Weapons Found in RSF Depot 

Bahrain

Israel

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Energy

Gulf Arab states condemned Israel's June 13 attack on Iranian nuclear and military targets in a series of official statements, Al Jazeera reported on June 13. 

GCC, Israel: GCC Countries Condemn Israeli Attacks on Iran

Angola

Algeria

Iraq

OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the organization announced in a May 31 communique.

Global: OPEC+ Approves Third Accelerated Production Hike, But Russia-Saudi Tensions May Rise

Media

Podcasts

How have Gulf Arab states' positions on the Israel-Iran conflict evolved?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Gulf-Iranian Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

Assessments

Global Trade

Over the next decade, Gulf Arab states will increase oil and gas exports to emerging Asian markets, seeking alternatives to the U.S. amid tariff uncertainty. But the region's military and tech ties with the U.S. will remain strong.

Geopolitics of Trade: Gulf Arab States Balance Diversification With Enduring U.S. Ties

An oil tanker is seen at Saudi Arabia’s port of Ras al-Khair. 

Despite the ceasefire, the risk of a renewed conflict remains, which could again drive oil prices higher if Iran and/or its proxies begin attacking regional oil infrastructure and shipping.

Assessing the Oil Market Volatility Caused by the Israel-Iran War

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Yemen

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

Yemeni soldiers stand guard during a protest against the United States on April 18, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

As intensified U.S. airstrikes fail to halt Houthi attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping, Washington is increasingly likely to seek on-the-ground Yemeni partners to pressure the militant movement.


In Yemen, the U.S.'s Anti-Houthi Campaign Raises the Specter of a Government Ground Offensive

Philippe Lazzarini (C), the commissioner general for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, attends a humanitarian conference for Gaza in Cairo, Egypt, on Dec. 2, 2024, amid the continuing Israel-Hamas war.

Egypt's economic limitations will continue to restrain its assertiveness in foreign policy, constraining its ability to project power in the region.

Egypt's Economic Priorities Sideline Assertive Foreign Policy

A rally on Jan. 24 in Sanaa, the Houthi-controlled capital of Yemen. Should the United States attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Houthi rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations.

U.S.-Iran Relations

Should the United States also attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Yemeni rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations. 

U.S. Strikes on Houthis Risk Embroiling Iran and the Regional Energy Industry

Supporters of Yemen's Houthi movement brandish weapons and chant slogans as they take part in a protest staged in solidarity with the Palestinian people in Gaza on Jan. 17, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

The Houthis' intervention in the Israel-Hamas war has bolstered their military capabilities and domestic influence, which could embolden them to launch renewed offensives in southern Yemen.

What Will Yemen's Houthis Do With Their New-Found Strength?

Pakistan

The entrance to the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C.

Ahead of the first review of its newest IMF program, Pakistan seeks creditor assurances and a broader tax base.

Pakistan's Path to Meeting IMF Demands

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Argentina

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Jordan

Tunisia

Taiwan

Ukraine

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

A billboard depicting a Houthi military official who was killed during Yemen's civil war overlooks the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa on Jan. 2, 2025. 

When its increased attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen likely fail to deter the militants, Israel will escalate further, potentially spreading the conflict into the Gulf states and restarting the Yemeni civil war.

Israel's Expanding Campaign in Yemen Risks Reigniting the Civil War

The United Arab Emirates is located on the southwestern edge of the Arabian Peninsula. To its west is Saudi Arabia and to its east is Oman. Iran is only a few miles north, across the Persian Gulf. With desert in its west and south, dry mountains in its east and the warm waters of the Persian Gulf to the north, the United Arab Emirates' climate is unable to support agriculture beyond small-scale oases and camel herds. The country is divided into three broad regions: the coastal harbors of the Gulf, bounded by the sandy desert of the Rub al-Khali, or Empty Quarter; the interior, where settlements cluster around oases; and the northeast, which is broken up by the Al Hajar Mountains.      There are no natural rivers and few timber supplies in the United Arab Emirates, and nearly all the country's drinkable water is trapped beneath oases. In the premodern era, citizens mainly survived off piracy, trade and pearling, and the most powerful settlement was the emirate of Ras al-Khaimah near the Al Hajar Mountains. After the discovery of oil in the 1962, power shifted permanently to the more southern Abu Dhabi, which holds 94 percent of the country's proven oil reserves. These coastal cities are the core of the country. Founder Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan established the United Arab Emirates &mdash; the Arab world's only successful federation &mdash; in 1971 and ruled until his death in 2004. At that time, his son and current president Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan took over power.      The United Arab Emirates seeks to maximize its independence while warding off the influence and control of more powerful regional players Saudi Arabia and Iran. To do this, it has leveraged its energy supply and strategic location to secure alliances with extra-regional powers like the United States. Utilizing its oil receipts, the United Arab Emirates has imported foreign labor from South and East Asia, as well as the Arab world. Combining that labor with global technology, the country has rapidly transformed itself from a desert backwater to a key transport hub, tourist destination and regional military power.  

SITUATION REPORTS

Sudan: Islamists Hint at Long-Term Partnership With SAF

Somalia: Turkish Arms Seizure Heightens Tensions Between Federal Government and Puntland

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Leaders Meet in Abu Dhabi, Pledge To Continue Talking

EU, UAE: EU To Remove UAE From Money Laundering 'Grey List'

BRICS+: Bloc Increasingly Leans Away From West, but Avoids Picking Fights With U.S.

Sudan: Nairobi To Face Global Scrutiny as Kenyan Weapons Found in RSF Depot

GCC, Israel: GCC Countries Condemn Israeli Attacks on Iran

Global: OPEC+ Approves Third Accelerated Production Hike, But Russia-Saudi Tensions May Rise

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