Afghanistan

Pakistan

Military & Security

Politics

Pakistan summoned a senior Afghan diplomat and issued a strong demarche two days after a May 9 militant attack in northwest Pakistan killed at least 14 police officers, Reuters reported on May 11.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Recent Actions Suggest Desire To Avoid Re-escalation

The Afghan Taliban's deputy government spokesperson accused Pakistan of carrying out fresh cross-border strikes on May 4, claiming the attacks hit two schools, two mosques and a health center in eastern Afghanistan, killing at least three people and wounding another 14 others, AP reported the same day.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Afghan Taliban Reports More Pakistani Attacks as Conflict Simmers

United States

Iran

Oman

Russia

U.S.-Iran Relations

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will visit Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 24 to prepare for another round of talks with the United States, in addition to visits to Oman and Russia, Iran's state-run outlet IRNA media reported the same day. 

Iran, U.S.: Iranian Foreign Minister Heads to Islamabad, but No U.S. Talks Confirmed

Sudan

Saudi Arabia

Pakistan has put on hold the provision of a $1.5 billion weapons shipment to the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, after Saudi Arabia said it would not finance the purchase and that the agreement should be terminated, Reuters reported on April 21, quoting three Pakistani officials.

Sudan: Pakistan Reportedly Halts $1.5B Weapons Shipment to SAF Amid Saudi Objection

United Arab Emirates

Economics

Saudi Arabia will extend an additional $3 billion in support to Pakistan to assist with its upcoming debt repayment to the United Arab Emirates, Reuters reported on April 14.

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia To Extend $3B in Financial Support to Pakistan

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif will reportedly visit Saudi Arabia within the next 48 hours following an invitation from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Geo News reported on April 13. 

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia: Sharif To Visit Saudi Arabia Following Conclusion of U.S.-Iran Talks

China

China's foreign affairs spokesperson confirmed Afghanistan and Pakistan had met from April 1-7 in northern China, where they agreed to "refrain from actions that may escalate or complicate" their conflict and "discuss a comprehensive plan" to resolve bilateral issues, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported on April 8.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Negotiators To Discuss 'Comprehensive Plan' To Resolve Bilateral Issues

Afghan and Pakistani officials met in northern China to negotiate a ceasefire to more durably end Afghanistan and Pakistan's weeks-long cross-border clashes, AP reported on April 1, citing two unnamed Pakistani officials.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Delegations Meet in Northern China To Negotiate Potential Ceasefire

Assessments

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

India

Afghan protesters burn a Pakistani flag during a demonstration in Helmand Province in 2016.

Gains from the Afghan Taliban's growing regional ties will be hindered by enduring disputes, logistical constraints, infrastructure security risks, and Pakistan's possible absence from future multilateral engagements.

How the Afghan-Pakistani Conflict Is Redrawing Regional Relations

Israel

South Asia

Bangladesh

Maldives

Nepal

Sri Lanka

A passenger boat sails past the Indian-flagged oil tanker Kashimasan, which is docked near an offloading terminal at Butcher Island (also known as Jawahar Dweep) off the coast of Mumbai, India, on April 1, 2026.

Energy

Energy and fertilizer price shocks from the Iran war will increasingly threaten energy supplies, crop yields and economic growth across the region, pressuring governments' foreign exchange reserves and heightening unrest risks.

In South Asia, Iran War Fallout Risks Worsening Economic and Political Instability

Snapshots

Myanmar

A freight train carrying cargo containers rides along a railway track in Ajmer, India, on Aug. 26, 2025.

Global Trade

New Delhi's decisions to permit specific imports and fast-track minority investments highlight its strategy of addressing critical manufacturing shortages, though relations are unlikely to extend beyond low-level confidence-building measures.

India Cautiously Opens up to Chinese Investment

A digital illustration of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags.

Despite having a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will likely only provide the kingdom with low-level defensive and technical support, rather than direct military intervention against Iran, due to various constraints.

In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits 

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A burned-out vehicle along a road on the outskirts of the Pakistani city of Quetta on Feb. 1, 2026, a day after an attack by Baloch separatists. The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

With Coordinated Attacks, Pakistan's Baloch Insurgency Intensifies

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Greenland

Taiwan

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Morocco

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Chile

People watch the USS Gravely, a Navy warship, departing the Port of Spain on Oct. 30, 2025. The U.S. warship arrived in Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 26, 2025, for joint exercises near the coast of Venezuela, as Washington ratcheted up pressure on drug traffickers and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Saudi Meeting, Military Escalation in the Caribbean

Pakistan's armed forces march in the country's National Day parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2024. 

Pakistan's new constitutional amendment threatens to sow political division over growing military powers, a weakening judiciary and reduced civilian oversight.

Pakistan's New Constitutional Amendment Reforms the Military and Judiciary

Firefighters douse a car at the suicide blast site in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

While unlikely to trigger immediate retaliation, recent explosions in both New Delhi and Islamabad will sustain the risk of renewed cross-border strikes should either country determine the other was culpable.

Back-to-Back Blasts in India and Pakistan Raise Fears of Another Escalation

Afghan men gather in support of the Taliban government during a rally in Khost, Afghanistan, on Oct. 13, 2025, amid heavy cross-border clashes with Pakistan.

Further violence is likely in the coming weeks and potentially longer, as the two countries' entrenched disputes regarding their shared border and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan will challenge international peace efforts.

Deadly Border Clashes Sharply Escalate Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions

Pakistan is located in South Asia and is bordered by Iran, Afghanistan, China and India. To the north are the Himalayan Mountains, which branch off into the Hindu Kush range. To the southwest is the vast Balochistan Plateau, which is arid and sparsely populated. In the south is the Thar Desert and a 650-mile coast along the Arabian sea. The Indus River begins in the Tibetan Plateau and cuts through the country’s eastern half.  The river nourishes the fertile plains of the Punjab, the country’s populous core region and its political and economic heartland.    Pakistan’s primary geographic challenge arises from its borders, which do not correspond to natural geographic boundaries. The modern borders of Pakistan were created in 1947, when the nation was carved out of the Muslim-majority northwest and northeast portions of India. The countries have fought three wars since independence, and each claims the territory of Kashmir. Bangladesh, then known as “East Pakistan,” gained independence from Pakistan in 1971 with India’s help.  This reinforced the notion within Pakistan that India was an existential threat. Pakistan has long sought to gain influence in Afghanistan, both to secure strategic depth and to prevent Kabul from falling into New Delhi’s orbit.    On the west, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan — called the Durand Line — has remained contentious since the British created it in 1893. Kabul claims that Afghanistan’s true boundary runs deep into Pakistan to absorb the Pashtun tribal belt divided between both countries. The mountainous terrain has made the region difficult to govern, ensuring that the border remains porous.  

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

South Asian Militancy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Recent Actions Suggest Desire To Avoid Re-escalation

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Afghan Taliban Reports More Pakistani Attacks as Conflict Simmers

Iran, U.S.: Iranian Foreign Minister Heads to Islamabad, but No U.S. Talks Confirmed

Sudan: Pakistan Reportedly Halts $1.5B Weapons Shipment to SAF Amid Saudi Objection

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia To Extend $3B in Financial Support to Pakistan

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia: Sharif To Visit Saudi Arabia Following Conclusion of U.S.-Iran Talks

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Negotiators To Discuss 'Comprehensive Plan' To Resolve Bilateral Issues

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Delegations Meet in Northern China To Negotiate Potential Ceasefire

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