Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Economics

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The Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, announced that Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso had formally exited the regional bloc, Reuters reported on Jan. 29.

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Formally Exit ECOWAS

Togo

Russia

Military & Security

Togolese Foreign Affairs Minister Robert Dussey refused to rule out Togo joining the Alliance of Sahel States, which Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso formed in light of their upcoming departure from the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, Jeune Afrique reported on Jan. 16.

West Africa: Togo Considers Joining the Alliance of Sahel States

Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso rejected proposals by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for a six-month grace period following their formal departure from the regional bloc slated for Jan. 29 and stressed that their exit would take effect immediately, Bloomberg reported Dec. 22.

West Africa: Sahelian Juntas Reject ECOWAS's Grace Period

President of the Economic Community of West African States Commission Omar Alieu Touray acknowledged that Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso would formally leave the regional block on Jan. 29 but announced that the three countries would enjoy a six-month grace period, Radio France Internationale reported on Dec. 15.

West Africa: Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso To Enjoy Six-Month Grace Period Following Exit From ECOWAS

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu said the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, would maintain the free movement of goods and people with Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, Sahara Reporters reported on Dec. 12.

West Africa: ECOWAS To Maintain Free Trade With Sahelian Countries Despite Their Exit

Burkina Faso's newly appointed prime minister announced a 24-member government two days after junta leader Ibrahim Traore dismissed the government of then-Prime Minister Apollinaire Joachim Kyelem de Tambela, Radio France Internationale reported on Dec. 8.

Burkina Faso: New Government Formed After Dissolution of Previous Administration

Benin

Cote d'Ivoire

Amadou Koufa, the leader of the Katiba Macina group within al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), said that the group intends to expand its attacks and territorial control beyond its current focus on Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger towards the littoral states along the Gulf of Guinea, according to email correspondence with a France24 journalist published Oct. 23.

Sahel: Top JNIM Leader Pledges to Expand into Littoral West African States

Russian private military company Bear Brigade confirmed that it had departed from Burkina Faso after arriving in the country in May, Le Monde reported on Aug. 29.

Russia, Burkina Faso: Russian PMC 'Bear Brigade' Exits Burkina Faso

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Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

Mauritania

Nigeria

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

A staff member walks past a stage before a press conference at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, on Feb. 27, 2023. 

The exit will worsen all three countries' economic outlook, especially if they decide to also leave the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which would likely fuel jihadist activity in the Sahel.

What Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso's Exit From ECOWAS Means for West Africa

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Media

Graphics

A general view of a military crest of the French army in Niamey, Niger, on July 15, 2022.

French and U.N. troop withdrawals from the Sahel will open the door to jihadist attacks and external actors.

The Sahel's Security Environment Amid French and U.N. Troop Withdrawals

Snapshots

Gabon

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Cyber

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

Ibrahim Traore, Burkina Faso's interim president, attends a ceremony in Ouagadougou on Oct. 15, 2022.

The junta's failure to maintain stability and resolve underlying grievances will raise the risk of future coups and provide possible inroads for more Russian influence.

What an Alleged Coup Attempt Means for Burkina Faso's Stability

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Republic of the Congo

People holding Gabon national flags celebrate in Libreville on August 30, 2023, after a group of military officers announced they were ''putting an end'' to President Ali Bongo Ondimba's regime. 

Rampant insecurity could precipitate the collapse of more Sahelian governments, while succession crises and patronage politics could do the same for Central Africa's dynastic leaders.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 1: The Sahel and Central Africa

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

Senegal

United States

Protesters hold placards denouncing ECOWAS on Aug. 3, 2023, in Niamey, Niger. While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention Take Shape in Niger?

Belarus

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

A French army patrol in November 2019 in northern Burkina Faso. A French military withdrawal will likely accelerate the spread of the jihadist insurgencies already running rampant in Burkina Faso, worsening regional economies and security.

A French departure will likely accelerate the spread of the jihadist insurgencies already running rampant in Burkina Faso, worsening regional economies and security.

Burkina Faso's Government Demands a French Military Withdrawal

SITUATION REPORTS

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Formally Exit ECOWAS

West Africa: Togo Considers Joining the Alliance of Sahel States

West Africa: Sahelian Juntas Reject ECOWAS's Grace Period

West Africa: Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso To Enjoy Six-Month Grace Period Following Exit From ECOWAS

West Africa: ECOWAS To Maintain Free Trade With Sahelian Countries Despite Their Exit

Burkina Faso: New Government Formed After Dissolution of Previous Administration

Sahel: Top JNIM Leader Pledges to Expand into Littoral West African States

Russia, Burkina Faso: Russian PMC 'Bear Brigade' Exits Burkina Faso

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