Mali

Russia

Military & Security

Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group announced on its Telegram channel that it was exiting Mali, claiming that it had "completed its main mission" in the country, Reuters reported on June 6.

Mali: Russia's Wagner Group Announces Exit, But Africa Corps To Maintain Presence

Economics

Politics

Malian authorities imposed a curfew in the central city of Segou on June 4 for 30 days, Radio France Internationale reported on June 6.

Mali: Bout of JNIM Attacks Prompts Junta To Impose Curfew in Central Malian City 

Mali's junta leader, Gen. Assimi Goita, officially dissolved all political parties and politically affiliated organizations across the country via a presidential decree, Radio France Internationale reported on May 13.

Mali: Junta Officially Dissolves Political Parties

Participants in a national political conference organized by Mali's military regime recommended appointing junta leader Col. Assimi Goita as president of the republic for a renewable five-year term, without going through elections, RFI reported on April 30.

Mali: National Political Conference Recommends Nominating Junta Leader as President

Senegal

Al Qaeda's Sahel affiliate, Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, has significantly expanded its operations in Mali's western Kayes region, intensifying attacks near the eastern Senegalese border and engaging in various illicit activities within eastern Senegal, Radio France Internationale reported on April 28, citing a report by the Dakar-based think tank Timbuktu Institute. 

Senegal: Al Qaeda Affiliate Continues Push To Infiltrate Eastern Senegal

Divisions are steadily growing between Malian junta leader Col. Assimi Goita and other key junta figures, including Defense Minister Col. Sadio Camara, Jeune Afrique reported on April 25. 

Mali: Intra-Junta Factionalism on the Rise  

Burkina Faso

Niger

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced Russia's plans to further support the junta governments in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso by training troops, providing military equipment and assisting in the creation of a joint armed force, Bloomberg reported April 3.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Russia To Increase Military Support to Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso

Negotiations are reportedly underway between Mali's Tuareg rebels, under the umbrella group Azawad Liberation Front, or FLA, and the al Qaeda-affiliated Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, Radio France Internationale reported on March 4.

Mali: Tuareg Rebels and al Qaeda-Affiliated Jihadists Discuss Collaboration in Northern Region

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France

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

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Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

A staff member walks past a stage before a press conference at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, on Feb. 27, 2023. 

The exit will worsen all three countries' economic outlook, especially if they decide to also leave the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which would likely fuel jihadist activity in the Sahel.

What Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso's Exit From ECOWAS Means for West Africa

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Media

Graphics

A general view of a military crest of the French army in Niamey, Niger, on July 15, 2022.

French and U.N. troop withdrawals from the Sahel will open the door to jihadist attacks and external actors.

The Sahel's Security Environment Amid French and U.N. Troop Withdrawals

Snapshots

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Cyber

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

People holding Gabon national flags celebrate in Libreville on August 30, 2023, after a group of military officers announced they were ''putting an end'' to President Ali Bongo Ondimba's regime. 

Rampant insecurity could precipitate the collapse of more Sahelian governments, while succession crises and patronage politics could do the same for Central Africa's dynastic leaders.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 1: The Sahel and Central Africa

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

United States

Protesters hold placards denouncing ECOWAS on Aug. 3, 2023, in Niamey, Niger. While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention Take Shape in Niger?

Belarus

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

<p>Mali&#39;s borders were created in 1960 from the division of colonial French West Africa. The country encompasses two geographically distinct regions. These two regions &mdash;&nbsp;defined by the fertile, densely populated southern savannas and the arid, sparse northern Sahara &mdash;&nbsp;are largely separated by the Niger River, which also serves as the historic lifeline of Malian commerce. These regions have independent geopolitical cores. The southern core is the Bambara agricultural triangle that includes Bamako &mdash;&nbsp;the nation&#39;s capital. It&#39;s home to the Bambara people who share ethnic ties with Mali&#39;s southern neighbors: Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea and Senegal. The northern core is found at the southern end of the Hoggar Mountains and is home to the nomadic Tuareg &mdash; a Berber people with ties to populations in Niger, Mauritania and Algeria. Projecting political authority over both distinct regions is Mali&#39;s primary geographic challenge. The two largest cities in the north &mdash;&nbsp;Timbuktu and Gao &mdash; are on the Niger River and once served as major trading outposts between the two cores. Over the centuries, the establishment of sea routes by Europeans lessened the role of the Tuareg and these cities. Subsequently, the Tuareg Islamic sphere of influence has diminished, and the Saharan trade routes that once transferred salt, gold, ivory and slaves deteriorated. Today, Mali is one of the world&#39;s poorest countries. Its economy is based on agriculture, particularly cotton, livestock and gold mining. As the country&#39;s 2012 coup demonstrates, Bamako faces considerable challenges projecting domestic power from the extreme southwest of the country into the vast stretches of Mali&#39;s Saharan desert.</p>

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Mali: Russia's Wagner Group Announces Exit, But Africa Corps To Maintain Presence

Mali: Bout of JNIM Attacks Prompts Junta To Impose Curfew in Central Malian City

Mali: Junta Officially Dissolves Political Parties

Mali: National Political Conference Recommends Nominating Junta Leader as President

Senegal: Al Qaeda Affiliate Continues Push To Infiltrate Eastern Senegal

Mali: Intra-Junta Factionalism on the Rise

Sub-Saharan Africa: Russia To Increase Military Support to Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso

Mali: Tuareg Rebels and al Qaeda-Affiliated Jihadists Discuss Collaboration in Northern Region

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