Mozambique

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Presidential candidates for Mozambique's ruling Frelimo party and opposition Renamo party have called for a renegotiation of existing liquified natural gas contracts with multinational energy companies, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 19.

Mozambique: General Election Campaign Prompts Calls To Renegotiate LNG Contracts

Presidential candidate for Mozambique's ruling Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) party, Daniel Chapo, pledged to transfer the headquarters of the country's parliament from Maputo to Mocuba, located in the central Zambezia province, Club of Mozambique reported Sept. 9.

Mozambique: Ruling Party Candidate Proposes to Relocate Parliament to the Central Zambezia Province

Military & Security

Islamic State Mozambique Province insurgents on Aug. 9 kidnapped at least 70 people fishing on at least three boats near Quilhanhune island, also known as Ilha Kero Niuni, off Macomia, Cabo Delgado province, Zitamar News reported on Aug. 12. 

Mozambique: Militants Kidnap at Least 70 Fishermen in Cabo Delgado

Rwanda

Europe

French oil major TotalEnergies hired security guards from Isco Seguranca, a company linked to Rwanda's ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front party, or RPF, to protect the site of its Mozambique LNG, the Financial Times reported on July 17.

Mozambique, Rwanda: TotalEnergies Hires State-Linked Rwandan Firms for Mozambique LNG Project 

Tanzania

Tanzania President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi pledged to bolster bilateral trade and energy cooperation, IPP Media reported July 2.

Tanzania, Mozambique: Countries Pledge To Bolster Bilateral Trade, Portending Sustained Counterterrorism Cooperation 

The European Union is considering doubling its funding to 40 million euros for the recently reinforced Rwandan troops who, with the help of Mozambiquan government forces, are fighting Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) militants in Mozambique's northernmost province of Cabo Delgado, Club of Mozambique reported June 17.

Mozambique: EU Mulls More Funding for Rwandan Troops in Cabo Delgado

United Arab Emirates

Portugal

In a May 22 statement, the United Arab Emirates' Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., or ADNOC, said it agreed to purchase Portuguese energy corporation Galp Energia's 10% stake in Mozambique's Area 4 offshore concession for $650 million.

Mozambique: ADNOC Acquires 10% Stake in Mozambique's Area 4 Block

Rwanda is expanding its troop deployment in Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province as part of efforts to counter Islamic State Mozambique Province, Club of Mozambique reported on May 20.

Rwanda, Mozambique: Rwanda To Deploy Additional Troops to Cabo Delgado

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Yael Braun-Pivet, a French lawmaker for the ruling Renaissance party, delivers a speech after being reelected as National Assembly president following the third round of voting on July 18, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: France Resumes Political Horse-Trading, Blinken Returns to Middle East

Opposition supporters gather to protest the results of the local elections in Maputo, Mozambique, on Oct. 17, 2023.

Despite recent opposition protests, the ruling party will likely maintain its dominance in the general elections and beyond, bolstered by an influx of revenue from the expected resumption of a major LNG project.

Mozambique's Disputed Local Elections Offer a Preview for the 2024 National Ballot

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Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (2nd L) and Libya's Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah (3rd L) attend an agreement-signing ceremony between Italian multinational oil and gas company Eni and the Libyan National Oil Corporation in Tripoli, Libya, on Jan. 28, 2023.

As Europe turns away from Russian energy, Italy positions itself as a natural gas conduit between the Continent and Africa.

With Energy Deals in Africa, Italy Positions Itself as Europe's Next Gas Hub

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Women sit under U.N.-branded cardboard boxes in Semera, Ethiopia, on Feb. 14, 2022, as they wait to be registered by the authorities at a hotel compound hosting civilians fleeing violence. 

Social Issues

GBV is often primarily seen as a women’s and human rights issue. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it is also a key constraint to stable (and democratic) governance, economic growth, and lasting peace.

The Geopolitics of Gender-Based Violence in Africa

A military convoy from a multinational intervention force on Aug. 5, 2021, in Pemba, Mozambique. Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

The Fight Against the Islamic State

Security

Islamic State-backed militants appear to be shifting to a guerrilla insurgency in northern Mozambique, while intervening countries face a risk of reprisal attacks at home.

In Mozambique, a Victory Against Jihadists Likely Signals a New Guerrilla Campaign

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Royal Malaysian Police Special Forces personnel storm a mock hijacked ship during an anti-piracy demonstration exercise June 13, 2007, in Port Klang, Malaysia.

Piracy tends to occur in globally significant locations and counterpiracy options all come at a cost to shippers.

A Primer on Global Maritime Piracy, Part 2

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The Iranian flag on March 1, 2021. ran's Guardian Council is expected to publish by May 27 its preliminary list of qualified candidates to run in the upcoming presidential election. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iranian Candidates, an Australian's Trial in China

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The Tianwen-1 probe is successfully launched on July 23, 2020, in Wenchang, Hainan, China.

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The Weekly Rundown: Cypriot Sovereignty Talks and a Chinese Space Launch

A general view of the reception of Total E&P Uganda in Kampala, Uganda, on Jan. 22, 2020. Jihadist militants' seizure of the town of Palma jeopardizes the viability of Mozambique's liquefied natural gas industry and with it, the country's financial future.

The Jihadist Wars

The seizure of Palma marks a turning point in the jihadist threat to Mozambique, putting the country's financial future at risk.

In Mozambique, a Jihadist Attack Changes the Game for the LNG Sector

Destroyed homes are seen in the village of Aldeia da Paz outside Macomia, Mozambique, after a militant attack on Aug. 24, 2019. 

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

Militants in Mozambique will continue to gain ground near the liquified natural gas (LNG) park under construction in the country’s north until the government deems the economic and political threat large enough to warrant foreign support. 

In Mozambique, Militants Will Gain Ground Until They Threaten the Government

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting the events of the past year.

Grading Our 2020 Annual Forecast as 2021 Approaches

Army vehicles patrol the roads on the outskirts of a village in northern Mozambique on May 26, 2016. 

_Energy

The French oil major's new security pact with the African country will likely only contain militant activity near its natural gas project, leaving the rest of northern Mozambique still vulnerable to attacks.

To Protect Its Energy Projects, Total Joins Mozambique's Counterterrorism Fight 

Located in southeastern Africa, Mozambique is bordered by Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Swaziland. With a coastline of roughly 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles), the majority of Mozambique's 23 million people reside in port cities. The capital, Maputo, is the largest city and the country's core — a result of its natural harbor and proximity to the dominant economy of South Africa.    Founded in the 16th century by Portuguese seafarers seeking maritime resupply stations to and from Asia, explorers soon ventured inland for land and resources. Portuguese expansion was contained by rival colonial powers, which controlled the mountainous highlands to Mozambique's west. As a result, Mozambique is a low-lying landscape prone to malaria. The country's borders, made by European mapmakers, are Mozambique's main geographic challenge, as they do not factor in ethnic boundaries.     Following its independence from Portugal in 1975, Mozambique struggled — often in armed conflict — to balance the country's two main ethnic groups. The Shangaan of southern Mozambique absorbed the colonial infrastructure concentrated in the core region. This enabled them to repel and contain the Shona of central Mozambique and other ethnic groups in the northern parts of the country.     Since the end of its civil war in 1992, Mozambique has had one of Africa's highest economic growth rates. Recent exploration found a large coal basin in central Mozambique and a globally significant offshore natural gas basin in the north. These resources will force government attention away from the southern core to regions it must no longer sequester and now engage. Exploiting these natural resources without exacerbating ethnic tensions will test Mozambique's fragile unity.

SITUATION REPORTS

Mozambique: General Election Campaign Prompts Calls To Renegotiate LNG Contracts

Mozambique: Ruling Party Candidate Proposes to Relocate Parliament to the Central Zambezia Province

Mozambique: Militants Kidnap at Least 70 Fishermen in Cabo Delgado

Mozambique, Rwanda: TotalEnergies Hires State-Linked Rwandan Firms for Mozambique LNG Project

Tanzania, Mozambique: Countries Pledge To Bolster Bilateral Trade, Portending Sustained Counterterrorism Cooperation

Mozambique: EU Mulls More Funding for Rwandan Troops in Cabo Delgado

Mozambique: ADNOC Acquires 10% Stake in Mozambique's Area 4 Block

Rwanda, Mozambique: Rwanda To Deploy Additional Troops to Cabo Delgado

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