Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Yemen

Pakistan

Economics

Military & Security

Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Defense announced the formation of a 14-member military coalition -- including Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, Somalia and Sudan -- to protect freedom of navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, Red Sea and Gulf of Aden amid ongoing Houthi attacks against Saudi vessels and oil facilities, Al Jazeera reported on July 30.

Saudi Arabia: Defense Ministry Announces Maritime Coalition for Red Sea Shipping

Burundi

Ethiopia

Kenya

Uganda

United States

Uganda is convening a summit of officials from countries contributing troops to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, or AUSSOM, on July 29-31, Garowe Online reported on July 29.

Somalia: AUSSOM Troop Contributors Hold Summit After U.S. Vows to Pull Funding 

Politics

Somalia's main opposition coalition, the Somali Future Council, or SFC, endorsed a transitional direct elections model amid the country's ongoing electoral and constitutional crisis, Bloomberg reported on June 21. 

Somalia: Opposition Endorses Transitional Elections Model, Opening Path for Renewed Political Negotiations

Israel

A senior Somali official speaking on condition of anonymity said Somali intelligence assessed that Israel had dispatched 50 soldiers to Somaliland following its recognition of the breakaway region's independence in December 2025, Middle East Eye reported on June 22.

Somaliland: Senior Somali Official Claims Israel Dispatched 50 Soldiers to Territory

Middle East and North Africa

Iran

Oman

Azerbaijan

U.S.-Iran Relations

Oman's Mina al Fahal port temporarily stopped exporting oil on June 4 due to an alleged drone attack near the facility, Reuters reported the same day.

MENA: Oman Reports Explosion Amid Revelations of Region-Wide Covert Israeli Campaign Against Iran

Armed clashes and heavy gunfire erupted overnight in several districts of Mogadishu, Somalia, on June 3-4 as tensions over delayed elections escalated into violence between federal government forces and opposition-aligned fighters, BBC reported on June 4. 

Somalia: Clashes Erupt in Mogadishu as Government and Opposition Trade Accusations

United Arab Emirates

The U.S. State Department reaffirmed in a report to the U.S. Congress that it considered Somaliland to be part of Somalia's territory, Somali Guardian reported on June 2. 

Somaliland, U.S.: U.S. Reaffirms 'One Somalia' Policy, but Eyes Further Cooperation With Somaliland

Talks between Somalia's federal government and opposition forces collapsed on May 15 after they failed to reach an agreement surrounding Somalia's governance framework following the purported end of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term, Garowe Online reported on May 16.

Somalia: Mogadishu Enters Full-Blown Constitutional Crisis

Assessments

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud sits in his office as he speaks to journalists at Villa Somalia, the palace and principal workplace of the president, on April 22, 2025, in central Mogadishu, Somalia.

President Mohamud's attempt to extend his term could prompt opposition forces to form a parallel administration and lead to a federal military intervention in Jubaland state.

Somalia Descends Into Another Constitutional Crisis

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iraq

Lebanon

Libya

Syria

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

Palestinian Territories

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (R) inspect the honor guard during an official welcoming ceremony at the presidential complex in Ankara, Turkey, on June 22, 2022.

After years of discord, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are finding common ground as they increasingly position themselves against Emirati- and Israeli-backed regional initiatives. 

Saudi Arabia and Turkey's New Regional Alignment

Eritrea

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

Snapshots

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Sub-Saharan Africa

Mozambique

Republic of the Congo

Afghanistan

A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.

The Islamic State's main threat to the West in 2026 will remain its ability to inspire lone-actor violence, though in the coming years the group's African, Afghan and Syrian branches may become increasingly capable of directing mass casualty attacks in Western countries.

The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West

Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

While the partnership provides tactical benefits, structural limitations on Houthi resources and al Shabaab's financial independence suggest the relationship will remain opportunistic.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

Djibouti

The flag of Somaliland is seen during a political rally in Hargeisa on Nov. 8, 2024.

The United States is growing more likely to recognize Somaliland's statehood to secure basing rights in the territory, which would likely roil U.S.-Somalia relations and risk plunging Somalia into crisis.

Assessing the Prospect of the U.S. Recognizing Somaliland's Independence

South Sudan

Chad

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

Qatar

Europe

Philippe Lazzarini (C), the commissioner general for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, attends a humanitarian conference for Gaza in Cairo, Egypt, on Dec. 2, 2024, amid the continuing Israel-Hamas war.

Egypt's economic limitations will continue to restrain its assertiveness in foreign policy, constraining its ability to project power in the region.

Egypt's Economic Priorities Sideline Assertive Foreign Policy

An illustration of the Ethiopian and Somali flags.

The countries’ commitment to negotiate maritime access reduces immediate conflict risks and could enable Ethiopia to secure leasing rights at Somali ports, but tensions will likely resurge if the two sides fail to finalize a deal.

Ethiopia and Somalia Crack Open the Door To Compromise on Maritime Access

A Somali National Army soldier participates in a military drill in Mogadishu on March 19, 2024.

Egypt and Somalia's deepening security coordination risks triggering armed clashes with Ethiopia that could undermine regional counterterrorism efforts and inflame ethnic tensions.

The Horn of Africa Braces for Conflict as an Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape

Located on the Horn of Africa, Somalia shares borders with Djibouti to the northwest, Ethiopia to the west and Kenya to the south. To the north and east along the Indian Ocean, the country has the second-longest coastline in Africa.    Many have classified Somalia as the ultimate failed state, as civil conflict has gripped the country for decades. Some of Somalia's problems stem from the artificiality of the country's borders, as large ethnic Somali populations reside on the other side of the border in Ethiopia and Kenya. This weakness precipitated frequent external challenges to the country, especially during the Cold War when the United States and the Soviet Union staged proxy battles for influence in   Ethiopia and Somalia.    Somalia's biggest challenge lies in addressing a potent Islamist insurgency, followed closely by the need to reconstruct extremely fragile or nonexistent institutions. In addition to the threat posed by Islamist groups such as al Shabaab, deep-seated clan divisions have hindered efforts to foster unity. For example, the Somali National Army has received foreign financial support and training for many years, but it is largely incapable of defending the country amid its own internal divisions.    Furthermore, Ethiopia, the region's landlocked giant, is eager to prevent Somalia from re-emerging as a regional threat, as it did in the 1970s. The massive internal and external challenges facing Mogadishu suggest that international efforts to stabilize the country will continue for years to come.

SITUATION REPORTS

Saudi Arabia: Defense Ministry Announces Maritime Coalition for Red Sea Shipping

Somalia: AUSSOM Troop Contributors Hold Summit After U.S. Vows to Pull Funding

Somalia: Opposition Endorses Transitional Elections Model, Opening Path for Renewed Political Negotiations

Somaliland: Senior Somali Official Claims Israel Dispatched 50 Soldiers to Territory

MENA: Oman Reports Explosion Amid Revelations of Region-Wide Covert Israeli Campaign Against Iran

Somalia: Clashes Erupt in Mogadishu as Government and Opposition Trade Accusations

Somaliland, U.S.: U.S. Reaffirms 'One Somalia' Policy, but Eyes Further Cooperation With Somaliland

Somalia: Mogadishu Enters Full-Blown Constitutional Crisis

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support