Argentina

Economics

Politics

Argentina's central bank announced it will slow the rate of the country's peso devaluation to 1% a month starting in February, from the current pace of 2%, after monthly inflation stayed below 3% for the third consecutive month in December 2024, El Pais reported on Jan. 14.  

Argentina: Government Progresses Macroeconomic Normalization, Likely Improving Business Conditions

Argentina secured a 28-month $1 billion repurchase agreement with five international banks, and the new cash will help the Central Bank shore up foreign exchange reserves, Bloomberg reported on Jan 3. 

Argentina: Repurchase Agreement Marks Win for Milei and Moves Argentina Closer to Capital Controls Lift

Venezuela

Military & Security

Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez will meet with Argentina's President Javier Milei on Jan. 4 in Buenos Aires, Argentina, ahead of the planned Jan. 10 inauguration of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro for his third term in Caracas, El Pais reported on Jan. 2.

Venezuela: Opposition Leader Edmundo Gonzalez Returns to South America, Fueling Unrest Risks

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

The European Union and Mercosur (a bloc formed by Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached an agreement on the terms of a free trade deal, Reuters reported Dec. 6.

EU, Mercosur: Despite Pushback in Europe, EU-Mercosur Deal Likely to Be Ratified

Europe

France

The European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc -- which includes Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay -- are reportedly close to finalizing negotiations for a free trade agreement long in the making, Politico reported on Nov. 13, citing sources close to negotiations. 

EU, Mercosur: The Two Blocs Eye Free Trade Deal in Early December

Argentine President Javier Milei presented his 2025 budget proposal promising to deliver a primary surplus of 1.3% of gross domestic product and lower the nominal deficit to zero after interest payments, La Nacion reported on Sept. 16.

Argentina: Milei's Ambitious Budget To Spark Protests Over Social Spending Cuts

France's new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, reiterated Paris' opposition to a free trade deal between the European Union and the Mercosur bloc of Latin American countries, adding France will seek to form a 'blocking minority' in the EU Council, Euractiv reported Sept. 13.

France, EU, South America: Paris Reiterates Opposition to EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement

Argentina's lower house of Congress failed to reach the two-thirds majority needed to override President Javier Milei's veto of a bill that would have increased pensions, La Nacion reported Sept. 11.

Argentina: Protests Over Pension Increase Veto and Inflation Unlikely to Escalate

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

President of Argentina Javier Milei speaks during a joint declaration with Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni (not in frame) on Nov. 20, 2024, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. 

Despite rising poverty and protests, Argentina's President Javier Milei will maintain enough support in 2025 to advance economic reforms that stabilize inflation, attract investment and gradually ease capital controls.

What to Expect From Argentina After Milei's First Year in Office 

Germany

(From left to right) Argentine President Javier Milei, Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena pose for a photo during the Mercosur summit in Montevideo on Dec. 6, 2024. 

The agreement offers significant market access and diversification opportunities for both trade blocs, but it also faces a complex ratification process and potential political backlash in Europe.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

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U.S. border patrol officials drive near the wall along the Mexican border in Sasabe, Arizona, on Dec. 8, 2023. 

The fallout from Trump's pledged tariffs and mass deportations could worsen living conditions in countries like Mexico, though countries with like-minded leaders, like Argentina, may fare better.

What Trump's Focus on Immigration, Trade and Ideology Means for Latin America

Argentine President Javier Milei gestures before presenting the 2025 budget proposal to Congress in Buenos Aires on Sept. 15, 2024. 

Since taking office last year, President Milei has made solid progress toward lowering inflation and debt levels. But without wider-ranging institutional reforms, Argentina will remain susceptible to recurrent economic instability and financial crises.

Milei Puts Argentina's Economy on Better Footing. Can It Last?

Snapshots

An illustrated map shows Mercosur countries.

Stalled trade deals and dwindling intra-bloc commerce will leave the South American trade bloc in a deadlock, likely resulting in only minor rule changes to prevent Mercosur's dissolution.

Mercosur's Latest Meeting Highlights Its Growing Stagnation

Democratic Republic of the Congo

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Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his wife, Begona Gomez, arrive Oct. 5, 2023, at the Carlos V Palace at the Alhambra in Granada, Spain. Sanchez is expected to make an announcement about his political future on April 29 following his surprise decision April 25 to suspend public appearances after a court in Madrid announced an investigation into his wife for alleged influence-peddling and corruption.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South American Foreign Ministers Visit China, the Spanish Premier Announces His Political Future

The Argentine state-owned oil and gas company YPF’s refinery in Berisso, Buenos Aires, is seen on Oct. 18, 2022.

Political and economic challenges will impede the Milei government's plans to unleash the country's Vaca Muerta shale formation by deregulating the oil and gas sectors, at least in the short term.

Gauging the Outlook for Energy Reforms in Argentina

Panama

Flooding on the Rimac River on March 18, 2017, in Chosica, at the foot of the Andes east of Lima, Peru. The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

How El Nino Will Impact Latin America in 2024

Different currency exchanges are seen outside the Mexican Stock Exchange building at Reforma Avenue in Mexico City on Jan. 5, 2024. 

Mexico and Brazil are better positioned to take advantage of falling U.S. interest rates than Argentina, where political and economic uncertainty will remain high as its new president's reforms are tested.

How Will Changing Global Conditions Impact Latin America's Largest Economies?

Columns

On Security

Costa Rica

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Argentina is one of the most resource-rich countries in the world and faces few immediate external threats. The South American country is bound in the north by the rivers of the Rio de la Plata drainage basin, in the west by the Andes Mountains, and in the east by the Atlantic Ocean. Its core territory is the fertile Humid Pampas region, which includes the populous capital city of Buenos Aires. This area is the heart of Argentina’s large agricultural sector, supported by soybeans, wheat, corn and yerba mate. The areas west and south of this core area much more arid and rural but are rich in oil and natural gas. The Andes Mountains, towering to nearly 7,000 meters (23,000 feet), form a natural barrier between Argentina and Chile and protect Argentina's western flank. This protection adds to the natural protection afforded all of South America by its geographic isolation. The only local threat to Argentina is Brazil's growth, which poses a risk to Argentina's control over the all-important Rio de la Plata drainage basin. Argentina's biggest security concern has always been any possible blockade of this basin or of the Port of Buenos Aires, located at the mouth of the river. However, South America's relative isolation and Brazil’s historical weakness have protected post-Colonial Argentina. From its secure position, Argentina has been able to develop the strong agriculture and energy export markets that have made the country wealthy. However, its intrinsic security has also allowed Argentina to become overly focused on domestic issues and has contributed to its failure to develop stable institutions. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Argentina: Government Progresses Macroeconomic Normalization, Likely Improving Business Conditions

Argentina: Repurchase Agreement Marks Win for Milei and Moves Argentina Closer to Capital Controls Lift

Venezuela: Opposition Leader Edmundo Gonzalez Returns to South America, Fueling Unrest Risks

EU, Mercosur: Despite Pushback in Europe, EU-Mercosur Deal Likely to Be Ratified

EU, Mercosur: The Two Blocs Eye Free Trade Deal in Early December

Argentina: Milei's Ambitious Budget To Spark Protests Over Social Spending Cuts

France, EU, South America: Paris Reiterates Opposition to EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement

Argentina: Protests Over Pension Increase Veto and Inflation Unlikely to Escalate

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