Taiwan

Economics

Politics

Taiwan's Legislative Yuan Speaker Han Kuo-yu announced that the annual budget for fiscal year 2026 had finally passed its third reading, ending a delay of 266 days, UDN reported on Aug. 14.

Taiwan: 2026 Budget Passes as Opposition Differences Grow

China

Indonesia

Military & Security

A Chinese warship and an Indonesian warship will conduct communications and at-sea replenishment drills "east of Taiwan" later in August, according to a readout from China's Ministry of National Defense published on Aug. 11.

China, Indonesia: Beijing, Jakarta Plan Naval Drill East of Taiwan

Papua New Guinea

Energy

A senior Taiwan foreign ministry official announced on July 29 that the state-owned CPC Corp had halted spot market purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Papua New Guinea, the Taipei Times reported. 

Taiwan, Papua New Guinea: Taipei Halts LNG Purchases Over Trade Office Row

Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an, a more moderate member of the conservative Kuomintang, helped organize on July 25 the largest protest in Taiwan since President William Lai took office in May 2024, the South China Morning Post reported on July 27. 

Taiwan: Taipei Protest Shows Prospects for Pro-China Opposition to Moderate

United States

China's Maritime Safety Administration announced on July 23 that the military would conduct live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait from July 23-24, lasting from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. each day.

China, Taiwan: Coastal Live-Fire Drills Suggest Calculated Restraint 

Taiwan's Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said the ministry had convened a meeting to discuss Taiwan's response options to Papua New Guinea's potential closure of a Taiwan trade office, the Taipei Times reported on July 19.

Taiwan, Papua New Guinea: Taipei Threatens To Stop LNG Purchases Over Trade Office Dispute

The deputy director-general of Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA), Hsieh Ching-chin, told lawmakers on July 1 that Taiwanese ships should ignore boarding and inspection requests from Chinese vessels.

Taiwan: Coast Guard Official Pledges Intervention With Chinese Vessels, Raising Escalation Risks 

Taiwan's National Security Bureau announced online on June 15 that it had established a reporting hotline to encourage Chinese citizens, including public officials, to provide intelligence to Taipei about China's ruling regime.

Taiwan: Intelligence Hotline Raises Risk of Chinese Retaliation

Snapshots

Japan

Philippines

Crew members on a Chinese navy ship wave as they prepare to dock at Indonesia's Tanjung Perak Port on Aug. 2, 2026. 

U.S.-China Relations

China's recent naval drill with Indonesia appears aimed at asserting de facto jurisdiction around Taiwan, raising the risk of at-sea clashes and increased tensions with the U.S., Japan and the Philippines.

China's Latest Drills Near Taiwan Aim To Assert De Facto Jurisdiction

Assessments

A Chinese coast guard vessel is anchored in the waters of the South China Sea on March 8, 2026 near Sanya, Hainan province, China.

China's persistent maritime presence east of Taiwan demonstrates a slowly growing capability to threaten or enact a trade quarantine against the island and raises the risk of at-sea incidents. 

Extended Chinese Drills East of Taiwan Demonstrate Trade Quarantine Risk

Media

Podcasts

How has U.S. grand strategy in the Pacific changed over time?

The Decision Advantage: Taiwan Arms Sales and the U.S.-China Trade War

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Iran

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Forecast Webcast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Djibouti

Israel

Vietnam

Damage at the Azadi Sport Complex in the Iranian capital of Tehran on April 3.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Taiwan's KMT Restarts China Talks

South Korea

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (C) answers questions during a plenary session of the House of Representatives at Parliament on March 26 in Tokyo. Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

A New Leader in Japan and an Old Feud With China

Newly elected opposition Kuomintang (KMT) leader Cheng Li-wun delivers a speech in Taipei on Nov. 1, 2025. 

The KMT's diplomatic outreach to Beijing may yield modest economic gains, but it will also hurt the party's electoral prospects, which could paradoxically raise the risk of military conflict in the coming years.

The Taiwanese Opposition's Plan To Revive Talks With China Will Likely Backfire

A video interview of Taiwanese President William Lai plays onstage during The New York Times DealBook Summit 2025 at Jazz at Lincoln Center on Dec. 3, 2025, in New York City.

President Lai's political disputes with the legislature are unlikely to ease anytime soon, which could disrupt U.S. trade and arms deals and/or jeopardize future opportunities for diplomatic engagement with China.

Taiwan's Political Dysfunction Goes Global

Zhang Youxia, senior vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission (CMC), attends the opening of the fourth plenary session of the National People's Congress on March 11, 2023, in Beijing, China. 

The removal of Xi's closest military ally signals an acceleration of his push to eliminate internal threats and heightens uncertainty about the president's decision-making on Taiwan, potentially raising the risk of future conflict.

China's High-Level Military Purge Raises Risk of a Miscalculation on Taiwan

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

Global Trade

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

Nigeria

Colombia

Greenland

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

India

Pakistan

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Columns

On Geopolitics

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Taiwan is located along a sea lane in the West Pacific, with the East China Sea to the north, the Philippine Sea to the east and the South China Sea to the south. The island is 180 kilometers off the southeastern coast of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait. The strait has allowed for communication with the mainland since ancient times, but has also forced the island to confront the mainland's unrelenting attempts to reclaim it.    Taiwan consists of two geographic and population cores. The first is the Chianan Plain in the southwestern region, home to Taiwan's earliest civilizations and the island's second-largest city, Kaohsiung. The second is Taipei Basin, home to the island's capital, Taipei. These two cores are separated by rugged mountains and over several centuries have developed their own distinct social patterns and economic structures. The presence of mainlanders, who have been crossing the strait since the 17th century, further compounds the island's socio-political divides.    Taiwan's crucial strategic position has put it at the center of regional geopolitical competition for centuries. In the 17th century it was controlled by various European colonial powers, and up until World War II, it switched hands between the Chinese empire and Japanese rulers. Taiwan was the extended battleground of the Chinese Civil War in the mid-1940s and only established itself as an independent, unified polity in 1945. Today, it remains a focal point of power struggles between China, Japan and the United States. The island's primary geographic challenge is to avoid being dominated by external powers while securing a maritime buffer. Both these goals are challenged by China, which is expanding its maritime ambitions in the East and South China seas and remains fixated on eventual national reunification.

SITUATION REPORTS

Taiwan: 2026 Budget Passes as Opposition Differences Grow

China, Indonesia: Beijing, Jakarta Plan Naval Drill East of Taiwan

Taiwan, Papua New Guinea: Taipei Halts LNG Purchases Over Trade Office Row

Taiwan: Taipei Protest Shows Prospects for Pro-China Opposition to Moderate

China, Taiwan: Coastal Live-Fire Drills Suggest Calculated Restraint

Taiwan, Papua New Guinea: Taipei Threatens To Stop LNG Purchases Over Trade Office Dispute

Taiwan: Coast Guard Official Pledges Intervention With Chinese Vessels, Raising Escalation Risks

Taiwan: Intelligence Hotline Raises Risk of Chinese Retaliation

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