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Military & Security

Politics

Philippine Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, Manila's chief military spokesperson on South China Sea issues, confirmed that the Philippine and Taiwanese navies are engaged in "unofficial and informal" engagements, and he mentioned the possibility of joint patrols in the Luzon Strait as part of broader multilateral engagement, state media TaiwanPlus News reported on April 29.

Taiwan, Philippines: Naval Connections Deepen After Manila Loosens Rules on Communications

Economics

The Philippines significantly eased restrictions on engagement with Taiwan by allowing Philippine officials to host Taiwanese officials and by allowing Taiwanese delegations to visit the island, though Manila maintained prior prohibitions on top national security leaders like the president and defense minister, Nikkei Asia reported on April 22.

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Significantly Relaxes Restrictions on Engagement With Taipei

United States

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

In a confidential meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials in December 2024, Chinese officials indicated that Beijing carried out cyber intrusions into U.S. critical infrastructure in retaliation for increasing U.S. support for Taiwan, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 10.

China, U.S.: China Reportedly Acknowledged Responsibility for Cyber Intrusions

Japan

South Korea

On April 3, Northeast Asian countries responded to U.S. baseline and reciprocal tariffs imposed on April 2.

Asia-Pacific: China Aside, Northeast Asian Countries Likely To Avoid Retaliating Against U.S. Tariffs

The United States approved a $5.58 billion sale of 20 F-16 fighter jets and related weapon systems and equipment to the Philippines, marking a major upgrade in Manila's air combat capabilities, Defense News reported on April 2. 

Philippines, U.S.: F-16 Sale Highlights Manila's Frontline Taiwan Role

The Chinese military announced on April 2 that it had conducted the "Strait Thunder-2025A" exercises around central and southern Taiwan, complemented by an aircraft carrier deployment east of Taiwan and live-fire drills in an area 300 kilometers (186 miles) north of Taiwan.

China, Taiwan: More Chinese Drills Around Taiwan To Follow Lai's Policies

The Chinese army's Eastern Theater Command announced on its website on April 1 that it was conducting military exercises around Taiwan, with varied operational foci, including "blocking key areas and roads."

China, Taiwan: Latest Drill Practices Blockade in Response to Lai's '17 Strategies' 

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with his counterpart in Japan, pledging to upgrade the U.S. military command in Japan and accelerate joint missile production while noting that "Japan is our indispensable partner in deterring communist Chinese military aggression," Reuters reported on March 30.

Japan, Taiwan, U.S.: Hegseth Champions Japan, Pentagon Prioritizes Taiwan

Assessments

Taiwan's President Lai inspects troops taking part in the Rapid Response Exercise at the Songshan military airbase in Taipei on March 21, 2025.

Lai's policies to defend sovereignty and curb Chinese influence are prompting greater coercive pressure from Beijing.

In Taiwan, President Lai's Actions Toward China Will Speak Louder Than His Words

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India

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Democratic Republic of the Congo

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U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House. Biden on Dec. 2-4 will visit Angola, where he will focus on the Lobito Corridor project that aims to refurbish and expand railways connecting critical mineral-rich regions in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo with the Angolan port of Lobito.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Angola, von der Leyen's Second Term

Europe

The sample of an Intel chip is displayed during Computex 2024 in Taipei on June 4, 2024. 

If Intel's bold new business strategy fails, it would serve a painful blow to U.S. semiconductor ambitions and likely cement the global dominance of Taiwan's TSMC.

The U.S. Semiconductor Industry's Strategic Challenges

A man watches a news program about Chinese military drills surrounding Taiwan on a giant screen outside a shopping mall in Beijing on Oct. 14, 2024.

China's latest military exercises lower the threshold for the still unlikely prospect of a Taiwan blockade and highlight Beijing's military coercive strategy toward Taipei through 2028.

Chinese Drills Around Taiwan Practice for a Blockade, Even if One Isn't Imminent

Taiwanese President William Lai gives his inauguration speech on May 20, 2024, in Taipei, Taiwan.

The president's recent remarks indicate he will continue to remove rhetorical ambiguity about Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, portending more Chinese military drills and deeper Western engagement with Taiwan.

For Taiwan, Lai's Pro-Sovereignty Rhetoric May Invite Western Support -- and Chinese Drills

Media

Podcasts

How is China reacting to President William Lai's inauguration?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Short-term China-Taiwan Relations

North Korea

Global Elections

While President Biden would be expected to continue to build and strengthen alliances with America's key allies in the northern Asian region, the reelection of President Trump could spur those same allies to look beyond the U.S. for their physical and economic security.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, Northern Asia and Geopolitical Risk: What to Expect

Snapshots

An outdoor screen shows news coverage of China's military drills around Taiwan, in Beijing, China, on May 23, 2024. 

The drills suggest China will escalate its military coercion during Taiwanese President Lai's four-year term, and could be followed by more extensive drills later this year if the U.S. steps up its support for Taipei.

China's Latest Military Drills Around Taiwan Set the Tone for Cross-Strait Relations Under Lai

Palestinian Territories

Spain

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Taiwanese President-elect William Lai (C) on Jan. 13 in Taipei, Taiwan. Lai will officially begin his four-year presidency May 20.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Kenya's President Visits Washington, Lai Inaugurated in Taiwan

What do China's recent Taiwan Strait initiatives mean for Taiwan's security?

Essential Geopolitics: China's New Initiatives in the Taiwan Strait

Taiwan is located along a sea lane in the West Pacific, with the East China Sea to the north, the Philippine Sea to the east and the South China Sea to the south. The island is 180 kilometers off the southeastern coast of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait. The strait has allowed for communication with the mainland since ancient times, but has also forced the island to confront the mainland's unrelenting attempts to reclaim it.    Taiwan consists of two geographic and population cores. The first is the Chianan Plain in the southwestern region, home to Taiwan's earliest civilizations and the island's second-largest city, Kaohsiung. The second is Taipei Basin, home to the island's capital, Taipei. These two cores are separated by rugged mountains and over several centuries have developed their own distinct social patterns and economic structures. The presence of mainlanders, who have been crossing the strait since the 17th century, further compounds the island's socio-political divides.    Taiwan's crucial strategic position has put it at the center of regional geopolitical competition for centuries. In the 17th century it was controlled by various European colonial powers, and up until World War II, it switched hands between the Chinese empire and Japanese rulers. Taiwan was the extended battleground of the Chinese Civil War in the mid-1940s and only established itself as an independent, unified polity in 1945. Today, it remains a focal point of power struggles between China, Japan and the United States. The island's primary geographic challenge is to avoid being dominated by external powers while securing a maritime buffer. Both these goals are challenged by China, which is expanding its maritime ambitions in the East and South China seas and remains fixated on eventual national reunification.

SITUATION REPORTS

Taiwan, Philippines: Naval Connections Deepen After Manila Loosens Rules on Communications

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Significantly Relaxes Restrictions on Engagement With Taipei

China, U.S.: China Reportedly Acknowledged Responsibility for Cyber Intrusions

Asia-Pacific: China Aside, Northeast Asian Countries Likely To Avoid Retaliating Against U.S. Tariffs

Philippines, U.S.: F-16 Sale Highlights Manila's Frontline Taiwan Role

China, Taiwan: More Chinese Drills Around Taiwan To Follow Lai's Policies

China, Taiwan: Latest Drill Practices Blockade in Response to Lai's '17 Strategies'

Japan, Taiwan, U.S.: Hegseth Champions Japan, Pentagon Prioritizes Taiwan

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