Israel

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Hamas' chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, said that Israel's alleged violations risked upending the Hamas-Israel ceasefire and that Hamas' arms are a "right guaranteed by international law" in a video statement released a day after Israel assassinated a senior Hamas commander, Raed Saad, in Gaza, Al Jazeera reported Dec. 14. 

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas Negotiator Rejects Disarmament After Assassination of Senior Commander 

United States

Australia

China

Japan

Singapore

South Korea

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The U.S. Trump administration plans to sign the Pax Silica Declaration with Australia, Japan, Israel, Singapore and South Korea on Dec. 12, forming a coalition designed to counter China's control of critical minerals and its growing clout in the artificial intelligence sector, Politico reported the same day.

Global: U.S., Five Others To Sign Pax Silica Declaration in a Bid To Counter China in CRMs, AI

Taiwan

Taiwan's Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu traveled to Israel on an unpublicized foreign trip earlier in December, according to Reuters sources on Dec. 11, though the sources declined to state with whom he met or what they discussed.

Taiwan, Israel: Taipei Likely Seeks Israeli Defense Support, Could Stir Chinese Retaliation 

Syria

The U.S. House voted as part of the National Defense Authorization Act of 2025-26 to repeal the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019, sending it on to the Senate, where its passage looks likely, and on to President Donald Trump, who will sign it, Al Jazeera reported on Dec. 11.

U.S., Syria: Washington To Lift Caesar Sanctions on Syria

A senior Hamas official said the Palestinian militant group was ready to discuss "freezing or storing or laying down" weapons in order to advance the fragile ceasefire with Israel, and he also suggested a multi-year truce and said Hamas must maintain its "right to resist, AP reported on Dec. 7.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas Official Floats Freezing or Storing Weapons

Israel's Cabinet unanimously voted to pass the 2026 budget, which aims to maintain elevated defense spending while reducing the government's debt-to-GDP ratio, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 5.

Israel: Wartime Budget Passes Cabinet, Now on to Knesset

Israeli officials said they had received the remains of a Thai worker killed in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on southern Israel, leaving just one more body in the Gaza Strip of the 251 taken that day and signalling the end of the first phase of the U.S.-brokered Israel-Hamas ceasefire, The Times of Israel reported on Dec. 4.

Israel, Gaza: Second-to-Last Hostage Handed Over, Trump Insists Second Ceasefire Phase Is Incoming

Germany

Israel handed over the Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missile air defense system to Germany, slated to be deployed at Holzdorf Air Base south of Berlin, around two years after the initial deal was inked, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 3.

Germany, Israel: Israel Delivers Arrow 3 Air Defense System to Germany

Assessments

Iran

Lebanon

Yemen

Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.

If effective, the laser air defense system will significantly reduce the cost of intercepting short-range aerial threats and bolster Israel's multilayered protection against aerial attacks.


The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture

Palestinian Hamas militants stand guard as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp, in the northern Gaza Strip, on Dec. 1, 2025.

The shift toward a low-intensity conflict in the Gaza Strip will likely enable Israel to keep pressuring Hamas to disarm without triggering significant backlash or a resumption of Houthi maritime attacks.

Israel Moves Toward a De Facto Partition of Gaza

A photograph taken from the Israeli side of the border with southern Lebanon shows U.N. peacekeepers clearing landmines on Nov. 19, 2025. 

Rare direct talks between the neighboring adversaries will probably continue despite Hezbollah's objections, but Israel's likely refusal to offer meaningful concessions will sustain a high risk of renewed conflict in the coming months.

Lebanon-Israel Talks Are Unlikely To Pave the Way for Peace

Columns

On Geopolitics

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

Snapshots

Workers clean the rubble from the site of a Nov. 23 Israeli airstrike targeting a residential building in the southern Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut. Israel will likely opportunistically escalate airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas to further weaken the militant groups and push them toward disarmament without ending shaky ceasefires.

Miscalculation or an opportunity for Israel to significantly set back Hezbollah would, however, increase the likelihood of a return to major fighting. 

Despite More Intense Israeli Strikes, Hezbollah and Hamas Ceasefires Will Likely Hold

Media

Indonesia

Podcasts

What is the outlook for Indonesia-Israel normalization, and what would that process look like?

Essential Geopolitics: Indonesia's Interest in Israel-Gaza

Excavation crews work amid rubble in Hamad City, west of Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Oct. 26, 2025. 

The extended timeline for reconstruction ensures dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza will likely persist for years, fueling future radicalization and significant population displacement.

Gaza Reconstruction Likely To Take Years and Fuel Palestinian Emigration

Chile

Venezuela

Saudi Arabia

Cambodia

Thailand

India

Pakistan

People watch the USS Gravely, a Navy warship, departing the Port of Spain on Oct. 30, 2025. The U.S. warship arrived in Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 26, 2025, for joint exercises near the coast of Venezuela, as Washington ratcheted up pressure on drug traffickers and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Saudi Meeting, Military Escalation in the Caribbean

United Arab Emirates

Yemen's Houthi fighters man machine guns mounted on trucks as they participate in a weaponized protest staged against the United States and Israel on Nov. 6, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Energy

Global Trade

Israel is expected to soon launch another offensive against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, which will risk reigniting the civil war and exposing Gulf countries and Red Sea shipping to retaliatory attacks.

What a Renewed Israel-Houthi Conflict Would Mean for Yemen and Gulf Security

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern Lebanese village of Tayr Debba on Nov. 6, 2025. 

Despite Lebanon's diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions with Israel, stalled progress on Hezbollah's disarmament portends intensified Israeli airstrikes that would risk collapsing the Lebanese government and even triggering another war.

The Growing Risk of a New Hezbollah-Israel War

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participates in a state memorial ceremony for the fallen soldiers of the two-year Gaza war at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Oct. 16, 2025.

The Israeli prime minister is unlikely to call early elections and will likely increase military pressure on Hamas in an effort to reduce the likelihood that he is unseated in elections due by October 2026.


Gaza Ceasefire Hangs in Balance as Netanyahu Contemplates Political Survival

Turkey

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa (right) meets with U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, at the presidential palace in Damascus on July 9, 2025. 

The U.S. will leverage permanent sanctions relief to pressure Syria to finalize a security pact with Israel, but the Kurds will resist integrating with President Ahmad al-Sharaa's government. 

U.S. Engagement With Syria Will Promote Stability, but Kurdish Integration Will Continue To Lag

Israel lives under difficult geopolitical circumstances. A small country with limited resources and surrounded by potentially hostile neighbors, Israel survives by allying with powers that do have the resources to manage the balance of power in the Middle East — namely, the United States. Its geographic position also means that Israel must manage complex relations with its Muslim neighbors by quiet collaboration, by exploiting divisions, and by parlaying its technological and economic advantages into create strategic dependencies. To navigate all the challenges presented by the Middle East, Israel will remain agile in its diplomacy and, when the situation warrants, steadfast in its pre-emptive strikes, its covert activities and its economic relationships.

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas Negotiator Rejects Disarmament After Assassination of Senior Commander

Global: U.S., Five Others To Sign Pax Silica Declaration in a Bid To Counter China in CRMs, AI

Taiwan, Israel: Taipei Likely Seeks Israeli Defense Support, Could Stir Chinese Retaliation

U.S., Syria: Washington To Lift Caesar Sanctions on Syria

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas Official Floats Freezing or Storing Weapons

Israel: Wartime Budget Passes Cabinet, Now on to Knesset

Israel, Gaza: Second-to-Last Hostage Handed Over, Trump Insists Second Ceasefire Phase Is Incoming

Germany, Israel: Israel Delivers Arrow 3 Air Defense System to Germany

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