Syria

Military & Security

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The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, agreed to integrate with the Syrian army under the Ministry of Defense, and the government will establish joint committees with representation from the Syrian Kurds to ensure all sides enforce the agreement, The New Arab reported on Feb. 18, citing a statement from the commander of the SDF’s northern brigade.

Syria: SDF To Integrate Into Syrian Army

United States

Turkey

The U.S. Department of Defense is reportedly preparing for a full U.S. withdrawal from Syria, NBC reported on Feb. 5.

U.S., Syria: DOD Preparing Plans for Full U.S. Withdrawal From Syria

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Economics

Syria's provisional President Ahmad al-Sharaa visited Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, marking his first trip abroad and his first meeting with the kingdom's de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman, AP reported on Feb. 2.

Syria, Saudi Arabia: Al-Sharaa Visits Saudi Arabia as Damascus Deepens Gulf Ties

After a meeting of armed groups in Damascus, Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmad al-Sharaa was appointed provisional president of the country, with the former constitution abolished, ousted President Bashar al Assad's Baath party outlawed, and the dissolution of the institutions that had formerly run Syria, Syria’s state media reported on Jan. 29.

Syria: Al-Sharra Named Provisional President, Former al Assad Government Abolished

Russia

Syrian provisional government sources said de facto ruler Ahmad al-Sharaa had demanded to Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov that Moscow hand over ousted Syrian President Bashar al Assad and return $2 billion in "liquid assets" in Russian banks held by the al Assad family, The National reported on Jan. 29.

Syria, Russia: Syria Makes Demands During Talks Over Russian Military Bases

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov traveled to Syria to meet with the country's provisional rulers for the first time since rebel forces deposed former Syrian President Bashar al Assad in December 2024, Reuters reported on Jan. 28.

Russia, Syria: Despite Negotiations, Russia Is Set To Lose Military Bases in Syria

Europe

France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said the European Union would lift sanctions on Syria's energy, transport and financial sectors in a bid to stabilize the country's economic situation, Reuters reported on Jan. 27. 

Syria: EU To Lift Sanctions on Energy, Transport and Financial Sectors

In an interview with Turkish broadcaster A Haber, Ahmad al-Sharaa, the de facto leader of Syria's provisional government, said Syria might turn to Turkey to combat the remnants of the Islamic State, the Daily Sabah reported on Jan. 24.

South Africa: Miners Mull Investments in Railways To Turn Around Freight Transport

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Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan welcomes his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani before attending an Arab officials' meeting in Riyadh on Jan. 12, 2025.

Saudi Arabia's re-engagement with Lebanon, Syria and Iraq aims to counterbalance Turkey, Qatar and Iran but faces limits due to sectarian politics and foreign interference, which may make Riyadh more assertive over time.

Saudi Arabia Moves To Counterbalance Turkey and Qatar, Replace Iran in the Levant

Fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stand atop a humvee in Syria's northeastern Hasakah province during a joint military exercise with the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State on Sept. 7, 2022.

The threat of a Turkish offensive and decreasing U.S. aid will increasingly pressure the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces to reach a deal with Syria's new government. 

The Uncertain Future of U.S.-Backed Kurds in Syria

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The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Social Issues

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

A shuttered hotel is seen in Aleppo, Syria, on Jan. 24, 2025. 

To secure sanctions relief from the West, Syria's new leaders will likely take some symbolic steps toward forming an inclusive government, but any relief may prove temporary if Damascus diverges from its democratic promises.

The Prospect of Sanctions Relief for Post-Assad Syria

Columns

On Geopolitics

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Media

Podcasts

Why did Syria's al Assad regime collapse so quickly after fighting reignited in November 2024?

Essential Geopolitics: Syria after al Assad

Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani holds a press conference in Doha on Jan. 15, 2025, after Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Despite Qatar's success in getting Hamas to accept a ceasefire with Israel, Trump will remain critical of Doha's support for Islamist movements in the region.

For Qatar, the Gaza Ceasefire Will Ease U.S. Pressure -- For Now

Cyber

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Abu Mohammed al-Golani (C), the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks during a press conference near Syria's northern Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey late on March 12, 2024.

Rival Gulf Arab states will pursue divergent goals amid Syria's evolving political transition, raising the likelihood of factionalism and resurging violence in the war-torn country. 

Gulf States' Competing Interests Could Disrupt Syria's Political Transition

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Elections

Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Walid Jumblatt, the Druze former leader of Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party, and his son and current party head, Taymur Jumblatt, meet with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, interim prime minister Mohammad al-Bashir and other Druze leaders during a Dec. 22 visit to Damascus, Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's leadership in Syria will likely embolden Islamists in both Lebanon and Jordan, while Syria's turbulent political transition will likely prompt another wave of refugees into both neighboring countries.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's leadership in Syria will likely embolden Islamists in both Lebanon and Jordan, while Syria's turbulent political transition will likely prompt another wave of refugees into both neighboring countries.

Gauging the Regional Fallout of Syrian Regime Change

<p>Modern Syria is located along the eastern Mediterranean Sea, bordering Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq. Syria&rsquo;s main geographic challenge is uniting its diverse ethnic groups under one domestic power. This is the result of mountainous terrain and ethnic cores that contradict the state&rsquo;s current borders. Syria&rsquo;s population is composed of Sunni Arabs, Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and Christians, among others. The traditional core of Syria&#39;s ruling Alawite minority sits on the northern coastal plain to the west of the Jabal an Nusayriya mountains and to the north of the Anti-Lebanon mountains. Between these two ranges, the Homs Gap has often been the point of invasions from the Mediterranean Sea. The interior region is dominated by the majority Sunni Arab peoples. The Syrian Desert divides this area into two competing regions with strong local identities. The first, Damascus, is the historical capital and the modern seat of power for the Alawites. The other, Aleppo, is situated in the agricultural heartlands of the Aleppo plateau. The Euphrates river divides this plateau from the much more arid Jazirah plateau and allows for irrigation in an otherwise desert region. Syria&rsquo;s modern boundaries fall short of the historical concept of Greater Syria&mdash;spanning from Lebanon to the west and Jordan and Israel to the south. Its current borders were set by the League of Nations&#39; French Mandate, following the dismantling of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. Lebanon, especially Beirut, has always been important to Syria because of its trade ports and access to Mediterranean markets. Syria&rsquo;s recent civil unrest is the latest example of its geographic challenge. Maintaining unity remains difficult so long as its current boundaries continue to overlap regional and ethnic fault lines.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Syria: SDF To Integrate Into Syrian Army

U.S., Syria: DOD Preparing Plans for Full U.S. Withdrawal From Syria

Syria, Saudi Arabia: Al-Sharaa Visits Saudi Arabia as Damascus Deepens Gulf Ties

Syria: Al-Sharra Named Provisional President, Former al Assad Government Abolished

Syria, Russia: Syria Makes Demands During Talks Over Russian Military Bases

Russia, Syria: Despite Negotiations, Russia Is Set To Lose Military Bases in Syria

Syria: EU To Lift Sanctions on Energy, Transport and Financial Sectors

South Africa: Miners Mull Investments in Railways To Turn Around Freight Transport

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