Ethiopia

Somalia

United States

United Arab Emirates

Economics

Politics

The U.S. State Department reaffirmed in a report to the U.S. Congress that it considered Somaliland to be part of Somalia's territory, Somali Guardian reported on June 2. 

Somaliland, U.S.: U.S. Reaffirms 'One Somalia' Policy, but Eyes Further Cooperation With Somaliland

Military & Security

Chairperson of the National Election Board of Ethiopia Melatwork Hailu said 143 polling stations did not open during the country's June 1 general election due to security concerns, adding that "security problems" had also interrupted the vote at an undisclosed number of polling stations in "certain areas" of the Amhara and Oromia regions, Addis Standard reported on June 1.

Ethiopia: Government Praises Peaceful General Election Despite Security-Driven Interruptions To Polling

Sudan

Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the commander in chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, called for an intra-Sudanese political dialogue in his Eid al-Adha address 
and vowed to keep fighting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, stating that the Sudanese people would reject the outcomes of "conferences and dialogues of foreign capitals," Radio Dabanga reported on May 28.


Sudan: Al-Burhan Calls for Intra-Sudanese Dialogue as SAF Regains Initiative in Blue Nile State

The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, launched a drone strike on the Ethiopian locality of Kurmuk on April 29, killing at least eight civilians, including one humanitarian worker from the International Organization for Migration, Addis Standard reported on May 14 based on testimonies from local residents.

Sudan: SAF Reportedly Launched Drone Strike Into Western Ethiopia in Late April

Eritrea

The U.S. Directorate of Defense Trade Controls announced the lifting of blanket restrictions on the export of military equipment to Ethiopian security forces under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, Addis Standard reported on May 14.

Ethiopia: Trump Administration Lifts Arms Export Ban

Sub-Saharan Africa

Kenya

France

French President Emmanuel Macron and Kenyan President William Ruto concluded the Africa Forward Summit, during which Macron unveiled $23 billion in new private sector investment pledges from French and African companies in Africa and called for reforms to the international financial architecture, alongside around 30 African heads of state and governments, Jeune Afrique reported on May 12.

France, Africa: Macron Concludes Africa-France Summit in Kenya, Travels to Ethiopia for Meeting With Abiy

The Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, unilaterally reconvened the 2020 Tigray State Council and announced the election of TPLF Chair Debretsion Gebremichael as its head, stating that these moves were in response to the Ethiopian government having "violated" the 2022 peace deal that ended the Tigray war, Addis Standard reported on May 5. 

Ethiopia: TPLF Unilaterally Reinstates 2020 Regional Council 

Egypt

A spokesperson for the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, blamed Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates for drone attacks on Khartoum, noting that the drone had been identified as Emirati property and launched from Ethiopia's Bahir Dar airport, Sudan Tribune reported on May 5.

Sudan: SAF Accuses Ethiopia, UAE of Drone Strikes on Khartoum

Assessments

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed delivers remarks during the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba on Sept. 9, 2025.

Prime Minister Abiy will likely be reelected without sustained unrest, but escalating tensions in Tigray could still fuel a worsening security crisis in the Amhara and/or Oromia regions in a less-likely, higher-impact scenario.

Previewing Ethiopia's General Elections

Senior members of Ethiopia's armed forces attend a ceremony in Guba on Sept. 9, 2025.

The Ethiopian government's military buildup near Tigray suggests that fresh clashes with the TPLF are likely in the coming months, which could quickly morph into a major, protracted conflict that draws in neighboring Eritrea.

Assessing the Risk of Conflict in Northern Ethiopia: Short-Term Scenarios

Snapshots

Destroyed vehicles are strewn outside Sudan's finance ministry building in the capital Khartoum on Jan. 17, 2026, after nearly three years of devastating war in the country.

Ethiopia's apparent tilt toward the RSF paramilitary group in neighboring Sudan could trigger deadly border clashes and prompt the Sudanese military to deepen ties with Tigrayan forces.

Ethiopia Discreetly Dips Into Sudan's Civil War

Israel

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.

Worsening tensions over sea access and Eritrea's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government raise the risk of intensifying proxy clashes that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation.

Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026

South Sudan

Burundi

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Malawi

Mozambique

Rwanda

Tanzania

Uganda

Zambia

China

Japan

Europe

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

Over the next decade, Kenya and Tanzania will compete for the title of East Africa's leading trade gateway, particularly as global demand for Central Africa's critical minerals grows. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 1 

Brazil

United Kingdom

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou leaves after the weekly cabinet meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Aug. 27, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: France's Bayrou Faces a Confidence Vote, Ethiopia Inaugurates Its Mega-Dam

Columns

On Geopolitics

Chad

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

A Tigrayan flag waves at the entrance of a hospital in Tigray's regional capital, Mekele, on Oct. 10, 2024. 

The ruling TPLF's apparent rapprochement with Eritrea and the rise of anti-TPLF groups are raising the risk of an Ethiopian-Eritrean proxy conflict in Tigray that could eventually spur a larger military escalation.

Ethiopia's Tigray Region Faces a Brewing Storm Amid Shifting Alliances

Germany

Ukraine

Russia

Reichstag in Berlin with flags.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Russia Contacts on a Ukraine Ceasefire, a Vote on Reforming Germany’s Debt Brake

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Sri Lanka

Damage on Feb. 13 in the Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

The Weekly Rundown: Mideast Ceasefires and Arab Gaza Proposals, the AU Summit

Ethiopia is an ancient African country bordered by Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya, South Sudan and Sudan. Ethiopia's relatively large population of 100 million people has helped the country establish itself as a regional heavyweight in East Africa. Its extensive mountain system, which surrounds the fertile lowland core of the country, is key to understanding Ethiopia's diverse ethnic composition and how it relates to its neighbors. Invasion is not a major concern for Ethiopia, as the northern Ethiopian Plateau and the Ahmar Mountains almost completely surround the lowlands. In the northeast, the Awash River Basin opens to the coastline, but even this area gains a certain measure of protection from its extreme desert conditions. The country's capital, Addis Ababa, sits at an elevated position overseeing the lowlands, where the majority Oromo and Amharic peoples merge with several less populous mountain cultures. Ethiopia's greatest challenge is uniting these disparate groups. Financially, Ethiopia's export and import costs are high because neighbors Djibouti and Eritrea block its sea access. North of the lowland core, the Ethiopian Plateau serves as the country's breadbasket, growing wheat, barley, corn and the staple crop teff. These highlands form an extensive drainage system that creates the most fertile land in the region. Within this region lies Lake Tana, the source of the Blue Nile River, which is the largest tributary of the greater Nile River. Much of Ethiopia's coffee is grown at the fertile apex of the Ahmar Mountains, which are south of the lowlands. Those mountains descend into the arid Ogaden desert, which was acquired in the 19th century and remains disconnected from the core. While it provides Ethiopia with strategic depth to protect it from the issues of its unstable neighbor Somalia, the desert is also home to separatist and Somali militants, which pose a threat to the Ethiopian state.

SITUATION REPORTS

Somaliland, U.S.: U.S. Reaffirms 'One Somalia' Policy, but Eyes Further Cooperation With Somaliland

Ethiopia: Government Praises Peaceful General Election Despite Security-Driven Interruptions To Polling

Sudan: Al-Burhan Calls for Intra-Sudanese Dialogue as SAF Regains Initiative in Blue Nile State

Sudan: SAF Reportedly Launched Drone Strike Into Western Ethiopia in Late April

Ethiopia: Trump Administration Lifts Arms Export Ban

France, Africa: Macron Concludes Africa-France Summit in Kenya, Travels to Ethiopia for Meeting With Abiy

Ethiopia: TPLF Unilaterally Reinstates 2020 Regional Council

Sudan: SAF Accuses Ethiopia, UAE of Drone Strikes on Khartoum

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