Eritrea

Ethiopia

Sudan

Military & Security

The Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, accused the Ethiopian government of launching a new military offensive and said clashes had erupted between its forces and pro-government forces in the locality of Shererina in the western part of Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, located near the border with Sudan, Addis Standard reported on Aug. 1. 

Ethiopia: Clashes Erupt Between Military and TPLF in Western Tigray, Spill Over Into Sudan

Burundi

Kenya

Somalia

Uganda

United States

Egypt

Turkey

Economics

Uganda is convening a summit of officials from countries contributing troops to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, or AUSSOM, on July 29-31, Garowe Online reported on July 29.

Somalia: AUSSOM Troop Contributors Hold Summit After U.S. Vows to Pull Funding 

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

Science & Technology

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty accused Ethiopia of causing a reduction in downstream water levels on the Blue Nile in Sudan due to its unilateral operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Anadolu reported on July 22.

Nile Basin: Egypt, Sudan Slam Ethiopia Over Renaissance Dam's Unilateral Water Retention

The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, recaptured the strategic town of Kurmuk, located in the southeastern Blue Nile state along the border with Ethiopia, from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North, or SPLM-N, Sudan Tribune reported on July 8.

Sudan: SAF Recaptures Strategic Town Along Ethiopian Border

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed accused Sudan's internationally recognized government, Eritrea and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, of collaborating against Ethiopia with the support of unnamed external forces -- most likely Egypt -- in his first parliamentary address since his party's victory in the June 1 general election, Addis Standard reported on July 7.

Ethiopia: Abiy Denounces Anti-Ethiopia Coalition, Supports Two-Term Limits for Prime Minister

The Ethiopian Finance Ministry announced that it reached an agreement in principle with a bondholder committee regarding the restructuring of a $1 billion eurobond, Reuters reported June 29.

Ethiopian Government Announces Debt Restructuring Deal With Eurobond Committee

The National Election Board of Ethiopia announced that the country's ruling Prosperity Party won 438 out of the 501 parliamentary constituencies contested on June 1, paving the way for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's reelection, Addis Standard reported on June 22.

Ethiopia: Abiy's Prosperity Party Secures Landslide Victory for New Term

Speaking alongside Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, U.S. President Donald Trump said Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, on the Blue Nile was causing "tremendous problems" for Egypt and that Cairo had been "very unfairly treated," adding that the Nile waters would be a focus of his talks with al-Sisi on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in France, Addis Standard reported on June 17.

U.S., Egypt, Ethiopia: Trump Reiterates Support for Egypt in Nile Dispute With Ethiopia

Assessments

South Africa

Brazil

Iran

Saudi Arabia

China

Russia

India

(From left to right) Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa attend a plenary session at the BRICS summit in Kazan on Oct. 24, 2024.

The bloc's push to develop an independent payment system for trade will not immediately undermine the U.S. dollar's global dominance, though it could reduce the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions.

The Implications of an Independent BRICS Payment System

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed delivers remarks during the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba on Sept. 9, 2025.

Prime Minister Abiy will likely be reelected without sustained unrest, but escalating tensions in Tigray could still fuel a worsening security crisis in the Amhara and/or Oromia regions in a less-likely, higher-impact scenario.

Previewing Ethiopia's General Elections

Senior members of Ethiopia's armed forces attend a ceremony in Guba on Sept. 9, 2025.

The Ethiopian government's military buildup near Tigray suggests that fresh clashes with the TPLF are likely in the coming months, which could quickly morph into a major, protracted conflict that draws in neighboring Eritrea.

Assessing the Risk of Conflict in Northern Ethiopia: Short-Term Scenarios

Snapshots

Destroyed vehicles are strewn outside Sudan's finance ministry building in the capital Khartoum on Jan. 17, 2026, after nearly three years of devastating war in the country.

Ethiopia's apparent tilt toward the RSF paramilitary group in neighboring Sudan could trigger deadly border clashes and prompt the Sudanese military to deepen ties with Tigrayan forces.

Ethiopia Discreetly Dips Into Sudan's Civil War

Israel

Syria

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (center), flanked by his wife (left) and Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh (right), attends the official inauguration ceremony of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, on Sept. 9, 2025.

Worsening tensions over sea access and Eritrea's ties to groups opposed to the Ethiopian government raise the risk of intensifying proxy clashes that could quickly escalate into a larger military confrontation.

Assessing the Risk of an Ethiopia-Eritrea War in 2026

South Sudan

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Malawi

Mozambique

Rwanda

Tanzania

Zambia

Japan

Europe

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

Over the next decade, Kenya and Tanzania will compete for the title of East Africa's leading trade gateway, particularly as global demand for Central Africa's critical minerals grows. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 1 

France

United Kingdom

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou leaves after the weekly cabinet meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Aug. 27, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: France's Bayrou Faces a Confidence Vote, Ethiopia Inaugurates Its Mega-Dam

Columns

On Geopolitics

Chad

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

A Tigrayan flag waves at the entrance of a hospital in Tigray's regional capital, Mekele, on Oct. 10, 2024. 

The ruling TPLF's apparent rapprochement with Eritrea and the rise of anti-TPLF groups are raising the risk of an Ethiopian-Eritrean proxy conflict in Tigray that could eventually spur a larger military escalation.

Ethiopia's Tigray Region Faces a Brewing Storm Amid Shifting Alliances

Germany

Ukraine

Reichstag in Berlin with flags.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Russia Contacts on a Ukraine Ceasefire, a Vote on Reforming Germany’s Debt Brake

Ethiopia is an ancient African country bordered by Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya, South Sudan and Sudan. Ethiopia's relatively large population of 100 million people has helped the country establish itself as a regional heavyweight in East Africa. Its extensive mountain system, which surrounds the fertile lowland core of the country, is key to understanding Ethiopia's diverse ethnic composition and how it relates to its neighbors. Invasion is not a major concern for Ethiopia, as the northern Ethiopian Plateau and the Ahmar Mountains almost completely surround the lowlands. In the northeast, the Awash River Basin opens to the coastline, but even this area gains a certain measure of protection from its extreme desert conditions. The country's capital, Addis Ababa, sits at an elevated position overseeing the lowlands, where the majority Oromo and Amharic peoples merge with several less populous mountain cultures. Ethiopia's greatest challenge is uniting these disparate groups. Financially, Ethiopia's export and import costs are high because neighbors Djibouti and Eritrea block its sea access. North of the lowland core, the Ethiopian Plateau serves as the country's breadbasket, growing wheat, barley, corn and the staple crop teff. These highlands form an extensive drainage system that creates the most fertile land in the region. Within this region lies Lake Tana, the source of the Blue Nile River, which is the largest tributary of the greater Nile River. Much of Ethiopia's coffee is grown at the fertile apex of the Ahmar Mountains, which are south of the lowlands. Those mountains descend into the arid Ogaden desert, which was acquired in the 19th century and remains disconnected from the core. While it provides Ethiopia with strategic depth to protect it from the issues of its unstable neighbor Somalia, the desert is also home to separatist and Somali militants, which pose a threat to the Ethiopian state.

SITUATION REPORTS

Ethiopia: Clashes Erupt Between Military and TPLF in Western Tigray, Spill Over Into Sudan

Somalia: AUSSOM Troop Contributors Hold Summit After U.S. Vows to Pull Funding

Nile Basin: Egypt, Sudan Slam Ethiopia Over Renaissance Dam's Unilateral Water Retention

Sudan: SAF Recaptures Strategic Town Along Ethiopian Border

Ethiopia: Abiy Denounces Anti-Ethiopia Coalition, Supports Two-Term Limits for Prime Minister

Ethiopian Government Announces Debt Restructuring Deal With Eurobond Committee

Ethiopia: Abiy's Prosperity Party Secures Landslide Victory for New Term

U.S., Egypt, Ethiopia: Trump Reiterates Support for Egypt in Nile Dispute With Ethiopia

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