Nigeria

Military & Security

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu approved the establishment and recruitment of armed forest guards to secure Nigeria's 1,129 forests, Sahara Reporters reported on May 14. 

Nigeria: Armed Guards To Reclaim Nigeria's Forests From Terrorists, Kidnappers

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Politics

The suspended governor of Nigeria's southeastern Rivers state, Siminalayi Fubara, said in his first public remarks since the imposition of a state of emergency in Rivers that he "wouldn't go back" to being governor "if [he] had [his] way" and called on his supporters to avoid confrontational rhetoric, The Punch reported on May 12.

Nigeria: Suspended Rivers Governor Urges Calm as Pressure To Scrap State of Emergency Mounts

 President of the Nigerian Senate Godswill Akpabio announced that two of President Bola Tinubu's four tax reform bills had been approved and that the two remaining bills would be approved on May 8, Premium Times reported on May 7.

Nigeria: Senate Passes Tax Reform Bills, Ditches VAT Hike

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OPEC+ announced on May 3 that it will raise its collective oil production cap by 411,000 barrels per day in June, an increase from the original production increase of roughly 138,000 barrels per day to which the bloc previously agreed.

Global: OPEC's Production Increase Provides Some Tariff Respite

Thousands of suspected members of Jama'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jihad, more commonly known by the acronym JAS or as Boko Haram, were reportedly arrested in Nigeria's Lagos state over an unspecified period, according to Kumar Sanda, former commander of the country's civilian joint task force, Sahara Reporters reported on April 17. 

Nigeria: 'Thousands' of Suspected JAS Militants Arrested in Lagos

Nigerian troops from Operation Safe Haven on April 11 arrested two suspected Islamic State West African Province operatives in Plateau state under ISWAP directives to establish terrorist cells in Plateau and Bauchi states, Punch News reported on April 13.

Nigeria: Security Forces Uncover ISWAP Plot To Establish Cells in Bauchi and Plateau States

Angola

U.S. investment bank Bank of America warned that Nigeria and Angola face heightened economic risks amid slumping oil prices, Investing.com reported on April 9. 

Nigeria, Angola: Governments Face Fiscal Conundrum as Brent Oil Tanks Below $60 a Barrel

 Nigeria's former presidential candidates Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who respectively led the Peoples Democratic Party's and Labour Party's presidential tickets in the 2023 general election, announced the formation of an opposition coalition with former Kaduna state Gov. Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai to beat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general election, The Punch reported on March 21.

Nigeria: Opposition Parties Announce Coalition as National Assembly Approves State of Emergency in Rivers 

Assessments

A worker inspects an oil drilling platform located roughly 35 kilometers away from Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta. 

The recent drop in global oil prices risks exacerbating Nigeria's already high inflation, which would ripen socioeconomic conditions for protests and threaten to fuel recruitment by jihadist and bandit groups.

Can Nigeria Navigate Lower Oil Prices? 

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A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

The Geopolitics of Water

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Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

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A motorcyclist looks at his phone in front of a National Electoral Council poster promoting the upcoming presidential election in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 23, 2024.

Global Elections

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Election in Venezuela, Economic Reforms in the U.K.

Nigerian naira banknotes on Jan. 28, 2016, in Lagos, Nigeria.

Despite the government's commitment to fiscal prudence and macroeconomic and currency reforms, economic conditions in Nigeria will remain challenging in 2024 and 2025 amid modest economic growth and high inflation, keeping the risk of socioeconomic unrest and policy slippage elevated.

Despite Reforms and Prudence, Nigeria's Economy Will Still Challenge the Government

Cabo Verde

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India Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) meets with French President Emmanuel Macron on Dec. 1, 2023, in Dubai.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Blinken Visits Africa, Macron Visits India

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

Protesters hold placards denouncing ECOWAS on Aug. 3, 2023, in Niamey, Niger. While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention Take Shape in Niger?

A busy street is seen in Lagos, Nigeria. 

Social Issues

The Nigerian state is unprepared to handle the impending population boom, which will likely spur massive overpopulation and underdevelopment in urban centers and inflame regional divides.

Africa's Population Boom: Nigeria

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose during their Feb. 4, 2022, meeting in Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping will arrive March 20, 2023, in Moscow for a three-day trip to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin and other high-ranking Russian officials. 

The Weekly Rundown: Nigeria Elects Governors, Xi Visits Russia

Snapshots

Nigerian President-elect Bola Tinubu (right) and the chairman of the country's Independent National Election Commission (INEC), Yakubu Mahmood, look on during a ceremony in Abuja on March 1, 2023. 

Tinubu will likely face a legal challenge to his victory that will prolong the already elevated risk of electoral unrest, though he'll almost certainly still take office in May.

Nigeria Braces for More Turmoil After the Ruling Party Wins the Presidency

The West African country of Nigeria is bordered by Benin, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria gained its independence from Great Britain in 1960.    A series of mountains form the country's eastern border. Two rivers, the Niger and the Benue, effectively form a boundary between northern, southwestern and southeastern Nigeria. The northern half of the country is largely savannah grassland supportive of pastoral agriculture. Highlands in the south produce cash crops like oil palms and rubber.    Most of Nigeria's regions have arable lands that allow the country to support Africa's largest population of 150 million people. Each region has a dominant ethnic group. The Hausa-Fulani are based in the north, the Yoruba in the southwest and the Igbo in the southeast. These and more than 250 other ethnicities all vie for control over the Niger Delta region because of its abundant reserves of oil and natural gas. The Niger Delta region itself is home to the Ijaw people who have exerted disproportionate influence over the country's politics as seen with the election of Goodluck Jonathan as president in 2011. Nigeria's capital, Abuja, was intentionally located in the country's center to promote its neutrality.     Managing the competition for natural resources between these ethnically divided regions is Nigeria's primary geographic challenge.    Looking ahead, Nigeria will have to settle its internal ethnic division and astutely manage its oil revenue to deal with its projected population of 390 million people by 2050.

Nigeria: Obstacles to Prosperity

A Crude Recovery

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Nigeria: Armed Guards To Reclaim Nigeria's Forests From Terrorists, Kidnappers

Nigeria: Suspended Rivers Governor Urges Calm as Pressure To Scrap State of Emergency Mounts

Nigeria: Senate Passes Tax Reform Bills, Ditches VAT Hike

Global: OPEC's Production Increase Provides Some Tariff Respite

Nigeria: 'Thousands' of Suspected JAS Militants Arrested in Lagos

Nigeria: Security Forces Uncover ISWAP Plot To Establish Cells in Bauchi and Plateau States

Nigeria, Angola: Governments Face Fiscal Conundrum as Brent Oil Tanks Below $60 a Barrel

Nigeria: Opposition Parties Announce Coalition as National Assembly Approves State of Emergency in Rivers

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